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Kamala Harris’ Chances to Capture Swing State North Carolina: New Polls
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Kamala Harris’ Chances to Capture Swing State North Carolina: New Polls

The battle for North Carolina is proving to be one of the tightest in the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris continuing to receive positive signs in the state that former President Donald Trump won twice.

Two polls released Friday showed Harris and Trump tied in North Carolina, one of several battleground states the candidates are targeting in the final weeks before Election Day. Trump won the state and received 16 electoral votes in both 2016 and 2020, though Harris is looking to break that streak — and scandals surrounding the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s gubernatorial race could help propel the vice president to victory.

In a CNN and SSRS survey based on responses from 931 registered voters between September 20 and 25, Harris and Trump were tied in the Tar Heel State with 48 percent of the vote each. The same results came from a survey conducted by Meredith Poll between September 17 and 20 and released Friday – of 802 likely voters, the candidates were tied at 48 percent each.

Harris' chances for a swing state: polls
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Bojangles Arena on September 12, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Harris continues to receive good news in her battle with former…


Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

“Kamala Harris’ candidacy has brought the presidential campaign back to where it was in 2020: an election that will be one of the most exciting in the nation’s history,” David McLennan, director of Meredith College Poll, said in a report accompanying the research was over.

“A Trump victory in the Electoral College depends on his victory in North Carolina,” McLennan added. “The Trump campaign will continue to pump resources into the state. If Harris can succeed in winning North Carolina, her chances of winning the presidency will be greatly increased.”

Potentially Harris’ best news of the day came from a Fox News poll, which showed the lead in North Carolina having reversed in the past month. While Trump held a 1-point (50 percent to 49 percent) lead among registered voters in North Carolina in August, Harris was ahead by 2 points in the same survey conducted between September 20 and 24, leaving the race 50 percent to 48 percent led.

As of Friday, the former president is only an average of 0.2 percentage points ahead of polls in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight.

North Carolina has the potential to be a tipping point in November, according to pollster Nate Silver’s election predictions. The top state the candidates are competing for remains Pennsylvania, which Silver estimates has a 32 percent chance of tipping the election in either candidate’s favor. North Carolina, which offers just three fewer electoral votes than Pennsylvania, has an 11 percent chance of doing the same.

Trump’s chances in North Carolina could also be damaged after Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is running for the state’s open governor’s seat with Trump’s endorsement, was accused of posting racist and sexist posts on a porn site written years before he entered the political arena.

Harris’ campaign has relied on reports of Robinson’s controversial past statements in repeatedly linking Trump to the gubernatorial candidate. Several of Robinson’s top officials have resigned since CNN’s initial report on the scandal, although he continues to deny the allegations.

Trump made his first public comments on the Robinson controversy during a press conference on Thursday, telling his Trump Tower in Manhattan: “Uh, I don’t know the situation.”

In an email to Newsweek On Friday, Matt Mercer, the communications director for the Republican Party of North Carolina, said Trump’s campaign “feels good about his position” in the state, adding that voters will “make a third run for President Trump.” ”

“Every day between now and November 5 is about making phone calls, knocking on doors and getting our voters to the polls,” Mercer said.

He added that there is “no data showing that a state race” in North Carolina “has any material impact on the presidential election,” noting that Trump has won the past few elections with a Democrat as governor.

Update 9/26/24, 7:51 PM ET: This story has been updated with additional comment from the Republican Party of North Carolina.