Let’s open NFL Week 4 overreactions by taking a trip back through the mists of time, to a bygone age called … a week and a half ago. Things were different back then. Gas still cost a little more than $3 per gallon in many places. The 1962 Mets still held the Major League Baseball record for most losses in a season. Far fewer people knew about that baby pygmy hippo in Thailand. And the Saints’ offense was about to take over the NFL.

It was way back in those sepia-toned days that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets looked absolutely awesome in a 24-3 Thursday night victory over the Patriots. The performance, following a couple of lackluster ones to start the season, was hailed as the long-awaited breakthrough. This was what it was supposed to look like — the delayed promise of “Insert Rodgers, become playoff team” on full display as he zipped pinpoint passes all over the field and appeared like his much-younger self the few times he took off and ran. Fans rejoiced as the team went into the mini-bye feeling fantastic about the Jets’ short-term future as a legit AFC contender.

Well, on Sunday, a well-rested and confident Jets team lost 10-9 at home to Bo Nix and the Broncos. And now we have to at least consider the possibility that, 10 days earlier, we might have been … overreacting. Yeah, let’s start this week’s overreactions — where we judge a few potential takeaways as legitimate or irrational — with the Jets.

Jump to:
Will the Jets make the playoffs?
Is Daniels in the MVP mix?
Will the Chiefs add a WR?
How hot is Pederson’s seat?
Should the Rams trade Stafford?

The Jets still aren’t a playoff team

I mean, this was an objectively terrible loss, right? The Broncos were 8.5-point underdogs coming off their first win of the season — an admittedly impressive Week 3 decision over the Bucs in Tampa Bay — and had spent the week training in West Virginia. The Broncos scored 10 points, and that doesn’t really paint the whole picture of their offensive futility. Denver had 186 total yards and 12 first downs. Nix threw for a whopping 60 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per pass attempt, which, yes, is a historically low number. It’s the third-lowest average yards per attempt by any quarterback with 25 or more passes in a game in history. The only two worse outings came in 1965 and 1963. Broncos coach Sean Payton was born in 1963.

Rodgers said after the game that when his defense holds the other team to 10 points, he should win every time — and he just about does. Rodgers is now 33-2 when his opponent scores 10 or fewer points. This was the first such loss he suffered since Dec. 12, 2010, when the Packers fell 7-3 to the Lions in a game Rodgers left in the second quarter with a concussion. He didn’t leave Sunday’s game in the second quarter. He stayed the whole time, and his team didn’t score a single touchdown.

Now, the Jets are 2-2 and head to London next week to play the 4-0 Vikings. And you thought 10 days wasn’t a long time!

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Look, I’m not going to tell you the concerns aren’t legit. They are. A team capable of playing a game like the one the Jets played Sunday has no right to sit there and assume it’ll be a playoff team. This remains a coaching staff that has yet to prove, as two others in its division have, that it can manage a team through the ups and downs of a season and into the postseason. So, until those questions are answered, they will continue to be asked.

That said, the lesson of the Jets’ past two weeks is that we should not overreact to one single game. They still have all the very good players they had 10 days ago, and it’s completely reasonable to think they’ll end the season as a good team and even a playoff team. Sunday’s performance was just a sobering reminder that nothing is clinched yet; in fact, far from it. This is a talented roster with work to do before it gets where it wants to go. Sunday’s outing didn’t change that, no matter how ugly it was. And it was downright hideous.

Jayden Daniels is going to be in the MVP conversation

Six days after his dazzling “Monday Night Football” debut against Cincinnati, the Commanders rookie quarterback delivered a brilliant encore. Daniels was 26-for-30 passing for 233 yards and a touchdown and added 68 rushing yards and two more TDs in a 42-14 road victory over the Cardinals.

It was the third straight win for the Commanders, who are 3-1 and in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. They are averaging 30.3 points per game and have scored more points each week than they did the week before. One of the most notable things that happened in Sunday’s contest was that Washington punter Tress Way actually punted. Once. It was the first time the Commanders had punted since Week 1.

Daniels now has 218 rushing yards this season, which is the second most by a QB in his first four career games since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, per ESPN Research. First on the list is former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III, who had 234 in 2012.

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Jayden Daniels walks into the end zone on a QB keeper

Jayden Daniels scores a 9-yard rushing touchdown to extend the Commanders’ lead over the Cardinals.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Weird and unexpected things literally always happen in the NFC East. The Cowboys have major flaws. The injury-riddled Eagles seem to have a lot to figure out. The Giants are in Year 13 of their rebuild. Someone has to win the division. That’s a league rule. Why not Washington? Heck, the Commanders’ defense looked respectable Sunday for the first time all season, and with coach Dan Quinn running it, you had to think it would sooner or later.

Daniels’ completion rate is 82.1%. And yes, that has to come down. After all, it is the highest rate over any four-game span in NFL history (minimum of 90 pass attempts), per ESPN Research. But if Daniels keeps delivering with his arm and legs and this team finds its way into the playoffs? You’re absolutely right he will be in the MVP conversation. The only rookie to ever win MVP was Jim Brown in 1957, so the odds are quite clearly against Daniels. But I think he’s for real — and for that reason, his team might be too.

The Chiefs need to make a trade for a wide receiver

The two-time defending champion Chiefs improved to 4-0 with a 17-10 victory over the Chargers. The seven-point decision improved their average margin of victory this season to 5.3. Their history makes it very clear that we shouldn’t care how it looks as long as they’re winning. They have a spot in their trophy case where they keep the benefit of the doubt.

However, it was quite alarming to see their young star wide receiver Rashee Rice carted off the field in Sunday’s first half with what looks to be a significant knee injury. Through the first three weeks of the season, Rice led the NFL in receptions (24) and was in the top two in yards (288), targets (32) and team target share (37%). Wideout Hollywood Brown, Kansas City’s prized offseason free agent signing, is already out for the season with a shoulder injury, and starting running back Isiah Pacheco is still out while he recovers from a broken fibula. That’s a lot of key players to be without, especially with 13 regular-season games remaining.

Sure, tight end Travis Kelce had a big game, and rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy made his share of big plays (including a 54-yard TD catch). But the Chiefs are getting pretty thin pretty quickly at the offensive skill positions. And as they position themselves to try to become the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row, they might need to have their antennae up on the trade market.

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Rashee Rice carted off after collision with Patrick Mahomes

After Kristian Fulton fumbles an interception, Rashee Rice appears shaken up following a collision with Patrick Mahomes.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Oh, I have no doubt the Chiefs will try to add a WR before the Nov. 5 deadline. But if you’ve followed the Chiefs at all the past two seasons, you know they don’t need top-end wide receiver talent to win championships. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will figure out how to adjust, and if they’re unable to land a big fish such as, say, DeAndre Hopkins on the trade market, they’ll still be just as dangerous come January and February.

You can point up any number of flaws in the way the Chiefs have scraped by in four games this season, but you can’t argue this: No one in the league right now is better than this team is at just plain winning a football game.

Doug Pederson will be the first head coach to lose his job this season

The Jaguars put forth a far more respectable effort Sunday in Houston than they did last week in Buffalo. But they still lost, and that means they’re 0-4. They’re also 1-9 since they won in Houston in November to improve to 8-3 last season. At that time, Trevor Lawrence & Co. looked poised to dominate the AFC South for years to come, and Pederson looked like he’d landed in the perfect spot to repeat the work he did in Philadelphia, where he coached the Eagles to their first and only Super Bowl title.

At this point, after having given Lawrence a massive contract extension during the offseason that includes fully guaranteed money in each of the next four years, the Jaguars have to be wondering about their future. Jacksonville is 31st in point margin at minus-49, only above the Panthers (minus-56). This has been a sudden and shocking collapse, and a team owner who believed his team was a Super Bowl contender 10 months ago can’t be happy with where things stand.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

We can argue all we want about whose fault this is, but the facts are that Pederson is supposed to be the kind of coach who develops quarterbacks and runs a top-level offense. Lawrence isn’t developing, and this offense is not very good. The Jaguars are 26th in offensive expected points added this season. So, fair or not, the blame falls on the head coach in this league before it falls on the quarterback who just got extended at $55 million per year.

Pederson has moved to the front of the hot seat line. And while we don’t have any information to indicate that he’s in any imminent trouble, if the Jaguars keep losing, this is the kind of situation where ownership decides it has to make some sort of change at some point. That could mean at the end of the season or even possibly sooner. The Jags have a home game against the Colts in Week 5 then back-to-back London games against the Bears and the Patriots. This is their get-right stretch, and they need to take advantage of it.

The Rams need to trade Matthew Stafford and think about the future

The Rams lost at Chicago on Sunday. And while there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, it’s also not like it was Mike Ditka and Mike Singletary beating them.

What’s alarming about the Rams so far is not that they lost to Chicago or even that they’re 1-3. It’s that they are by far the team most devastated by injuries. And with the number of key players missing on both sides of the ball, it’s tough to see them being competitive anytime soon. If not for a stone-cold miracle comeback win against the 49ers in Week 3, the Rams would be 0-4, which is the same record as that of the Jaguars. The technical football term for that is “not what you want.”

Stafford is a 36-year-old quarterback with a Super Bowl title in his pocket and no one left to throw to in L.A. He is scheduled to earn $27 million in 2025 and $31 million in 2026, with only $4 million of that money guaranteed. He’s 14th in Total QBR (55.6) despite not having Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua running routes. The Dolphins or Raiders would probably at least take the call from the Rams on Stafford right now, right?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Dude, the Rams are 1-3, not 0-10. Sure, if these shadows remain unchanged and the Rams don’t win another game between now and the Nov. 5 trade deadline, maybe we look at this again. But I highly doubt that coach Sean McVay — or even Stafford, for that matter — thinks this season is already over.

Stafford, by all accounts, really likes it in Los Angeles. At least some of those injured guys will be back at some point soon. And it’s not like Stafford’s successor is already on the roster and obvious to all. The Rams’ backup quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo, for goodness’ sake. You want to try selling tickets on the idea that you’re future focused with Garoppolo at quarterback in 2024? It’s not pretty right now, but it’s also still very early.