In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship in the co-main event, Alexa Grasso And Valentina Shevchenko meet on saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze the lines of BetMGM Sportsbook around the UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko Oddsand make our expert picks and predictions.

Preliminary action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main event begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Grasso (16-3-1) | Shevchenko (23-4-1)

It’s a trilogy fight. Grasso won the women’s flyweight belt at UFC 285 with a 4th round submission victory in March 2023. The rematch ended in a draw at Noche UFC last September, so a year later the 2 fighters will rematch for a 3rd fight.

Grasso has a 5-0-1 record in his last 6 fights, including 4 going the distance, including his last against Shevchenko in 5 rounds.

As for Shevchenko, the Kyrgyz southpaw wants her belt back. She was at the top Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 and held the title for 7 title defenses until Grasso took it from her at UFC 285.

Shevchenko went the entire match in that draw, but that was a rarity. Only 3 of her last 7 fights ended with the judges needing to decide a winner.

Both fighters are 5-foot-5, and Shevchenko has a very slight half-inch reach advantage. Grasso has a significant advantage of 4.67 to 3.28 punches per minute, while Shevchenko is much more accurate with those strikes at 68.65% to Grasso’s 55.69%.

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UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko Odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; visit USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for full listings. Lines last updated at 12:10pm ET.

• Battle Result (2-way line): Grasso -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Shevchenko +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Will the fight hold? (Yes -200 | No +150)

UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko Predictions & Tips

Fight Result (2-way line or moneyline)

I’m not really into conspiracy theories. I believe these fights happen organically and there’s nothing suspicious about the UFC. The reason for choosing them is SHEVCHENKO (+115) to win right away is because the previous two fights were so close.

I can imagine the former champion getting the job done and even having a fourth fight in the future to finally determine who the true champion of the division will be.

In addition, SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+175) for the chance to almost double is also a good investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is a bit too expensive as a standalone bet. Now if you were to put this prop together into a multi-leg parlay, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

However, for a direct bet the following applies: PREVENT.

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