The only numbers that ultimately matter — Falcons 22, Eagles 21 — can’t capture how the final minutes of Monday night unfolded.

But the breakdown of Nick Sirianni’s decision-making when the Eagles seemingly had the outcome in hand tells the story of a coach whose conservatism left the winning odds in the 90th percentile with under two minutes left on the clock and near zero when Jalen Hurts’ final pass was intercepted by Jessie Bates.

A multitude of reasons led to the Eagles’ first loss of the season. Pick your poison: The defensive line couldn’t stop the run or get pressure on Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins. The passing offense couldn’t function at a high level without injured wide receiver AJ Brown.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni needs the Eagles defense to pick him off. Bryce Huff, Josh Sweat, Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter can’t do it.

New coordinators Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio were inconsistent play callers, the latter especially during the Falcons’ game-winning drive. Saquon Barkley, who had been perhaps the best player on the field for 58 minutes, dropped a third-down pass that could have sealed the win. And so it went on.

But Sirianni’s decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-3 with one minute, 42 seconds left on the clock, putting his team up 21-15, was one that spoke volumes about his seemingly shaky grip on the Eagles.

The third-down pass attempt that preceded it will raise the most questions for fans and media. Why not do it there and shave more time off the clock with the Falcons out of timeouts? It’s a fair criticism.

The more correct question, though, is why would you throw the ball aggressively there to end the play and not be equally aggressive and throw the ball on fourth down?

“In that scenario, I thought maybe they didn’t have timeouts, but they clearly did with the incomplete pass,” Sirianni said. “You know, but that would have come down to maybe a minute, so we wanted to be up six points; it didn’t work.”

According to Next Gen Stats, kicker Jake Elliott’s 28-yard field goal dropped their winning probability from 94 percent to 85 percent. Others in the analytics community, like Ben Baldwin of “4th down decision bot” on X, saw a 3.1 win percentage increase if Sirianni had gambled on it.

But his recommendation was still heavily in favor of rolling the dice. Of course, the numbers don’t take into account the human element. Cousins ​​had mostly been unable to throw outside the numbers up to that point, and the Eagles’ defense would certainly have prevented him from making downfield completions.

It only took him four passes, though, to get the Falcons to the Eagles 7-yard line. And after an incomplete throw in the end zone, Cousins ​​hit receiver Drake London for a touchdown after cornerback Darius Slay bit a double move.

The seemingly impossible happened. The numbers were in Sirianni’s favor, but you don’t have to be a mathematician to figure out that his hot seat odds just went up.

Game management is his primary function after giving up offensive play calling three seasons ago. And after giving up — or being forced to — his scheme in the offseason, it’s essentially the only part of the game he can directly influence.

That statement isn’t meant to downplay Sirianni’s role as head coach. His fingerprints are all over the team’s direction. But when he can’t consistently get fourth downs and timeouts right, that’s a problem.

Penalties also fall on the coach, as too many can be an indictment of the way practices are conducted. How can the Eagles still be called for illegal offensive linemen downfield on run-pass options? Wasn’t that a season one problem?

But four years have passed and the Eagles have already been punished three times for this violation.

“Some of them are on us as coaches; some of them are on a player going too fast,” Sirianni said. “We coach that, not to go too fast. But some of them are on us in certain scenarios when we call them.”

Sirianni was more aggressive on fourth downs earlier in the game. He went for it on the Eagles’ second series on fourth-and-4 at the Falcons’ 9. But he dropped Hurts on both third and fourth down. Why wouldn’t he run it on third knowing he’d be gambling on fourth?

“You can’t just say every time it’s third-and-3 that you’re going to run,” Sirianni said. “Teams obviously pick up on that when you run every time you’re third-and-3 and you set yourself up for the fourth down.”

» READ MORE: The Eagles ran the ball like they were supposed to on Monday… until they didn’t on the game’s most important play

But Barkley had earlier in the drive run four times for 39 yards. He was pulled for two plays and his backup Kenneth Gainwell had two carries for 6 yards. When Barkley returned, fans cheered, but he never saw the ball.

There were successful fourth-down attempts. The Eagles were more effective with the Tush Push. And the decision to have Hurts throw the ball to Barkley wasn’t a bad one. He was open and the pass hit the running back in the hands. He just dropped it.

“They used a certain defense and messed it up in the middle,” Sirianni said, “so we tried to come from the outside and it didn’t work.”

The original third-and-3 play didn’t do that either. The Eagles had drafted Fred Johnson as tackle-eligible. But either something went wrong with the operation or Johnson was late on the field, and Sirianni had to take a timeout instead of a delay-of-game penalty.

Cameras captured the coach shouting at Johnson after the TO.

“We were going to delay that and take our time out to try to get there,” Sirianni said. “So, nothing. That wasn’t up to Fred.”

He’s right. It’s ultimately his fault. Moore may make all the offensive play calls, but Sirianni can overrule and he certainly has the final say on fourth downs.

“Every time it doesn’t work out, you know, that’s why I’m in this chair, the head coach’s chair,” Sirianni said. “I have to be ready for the consequences of whether it works or not.”

Of course, it’s still early in the season. The Eagles weren’t the only “playoff contenders” to lose this weekend. The 49ers, Lions and Cowboys all lost games in the NFC. The Bengals and Ravens — two popular Super Bowl picks in the AFC — are both 0-2.

The Eagles opened last season 10-1 despite a few questionable victories. This season-opening win over the Packers in Brazil felt a little like the pre-meltdown of 2023. But the home opener felt more like early last season — except they lost.

Are the Eagles that much better than they were nine months ago, when Sirianni was nearly fired? Only time will tell. But his conservative decision-making may be what’s putting him under the most pressure.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni is coaching for his job in 2024. To keep it, he’ll have to show he’s matured. Oh, the Eagles have to win.

His lack of guts cost him the Super Bowl two years ago. Questioning Sirianni’s game management may seem picky, but his boss has long been an advocate for aggressive decision-making.

Before the game, Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie took his usual spot on the sideline during warmups and greeted a number of NFL dignitaries from his seat. At one point, Bill Belichick walked up to him and the two struck up a conversation.

Belichick is working in the media this season, but he wants to return to coaching. Lurie reportedly considered hiring the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach before deciding to bring Sirianni back.

Their conversation on Monday night was brief, but as Belichick walked down the Eagles’ sideline, it was hard not to imagine that there could be a scenario in the future where he would actually be standing there in a dark green hoodie.