It’s Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese, Part 4, and this time the stakes have never been higher. The rookie sensations meet for the final time of the 2024 regular season on Friday when the Chicago Sky host the Indiana Fever at Wintrust Arena (7:30 p.m. ET, ION).

If we take the first three games of this series as an example, then Friday will be exciting. The previous games were decided by a combined 10-point margin, with Indiana winning the first two (71-70, 91-83) and Chicago winning the third (88-87).

But a lot has changed for both teams since those three games in June: Indiana has found its groove on offense behind its big three of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, and appears poised to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Fever are 15-16 on the season, just half a game back of sixth place.

Chicago’s identity, meanwhile, has further crystallized around rookie bigs Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and guard Chennedy Carter. But the Sky are 1-5 since returning from the Olympic break, which puts them 3½ games behind Indiana at 11-19 overall.

If the season were to end today, Chicago would be the last team in the playoffs as the eighth seed. With postseason spots on the line, Friday’s game will be crucial for both teams, but especially the Sky, as recent winning streaks could see the Atlanta Dream (10-20), Washington Mystics (9-22) and Dallas Wings (8-22) battle it out for the final playoff spot.

If they beat the rising Fever, they will gain confidence that the Sky are still a playoff team.

Let’s take a look at how Sky and Fever approach the important match and what we can expect from both teams.

What went wrong with Heaven?

After entering the Olympic break with a resounding victory over the Las Vegas Aces, the Sky teams were unable to return with the same energy and won only one game.

The loss of leading scorer Mabrey to a midseason trade didn’t help, and Carter has missed the last two games — and is out for the game against Indiana — with an illness. Chicago’s -8.1 net rating in August ranks 10th in the league; before the Olympics, its net rating was a sixth-place -2.6.

Simply put, the Sky need to run the series of close games, with their last three defeats coming by a combined eight points.

Head coach Teresa Weatherspoon said after Wednesday’s loss to the Mystics that her team needs to do the little things right at key times and continue to focus on the scouting report. She preached the need to be consistent on defense and play to that aspect of their identity, but also implored her team to “appreciate every damn possession” on offense after recording 22 turnovers.

“Growing pains suck, but it’s part of the process,” guard Diamond DeShields said. “We have a very young group, so all we can do is go back to the drawing board with coach, learn from it, watch film, continue to develop, continue to mature and prepare ourselves for the next opportunity because they’re going to continue to come and present themselves.”

In the long run, Chicago needs Carter to return, she needs to be in top form and others need to step up to break the losing streak.

“I’m sure she’s doing fine,” Witherspoon said.

Michaela Onyenwere has had a nice run of offensive games and the Sky would benefit from her continuing that streak, but Rachel Banham, acquired in the Mabrey trade, needs to step up from deep. Can Dana Evans step into a bigger role after also replacing her in the starting lineup? Any production from the perimeter players will take the pressure off and give the rookie bigs more opportunities.

What’s going well?

Reese was the first to find her groove, largely because she has the longest double-double streak in the competition, but Cardoso has also found her groove.

She’s averaging 12.2 points per game on 65.3 percent shooting since the Olympic break. On Wednesday, she notched her fifth double-double, third-most for a rookie this summer behind Reese (22) and Clark (10). The game before that, against the Aces, she impressed with five blocks on former Gamecock and MVP candidate A’ja Wilson.

Carter has proven why she was considered a top prospect in the 2020 WNBA draft, most recently by scoring 25 points against the Aces and sinking the game-tying 3-pointer over Jackie Young with 1.1 seconds left (Wilson won the Aces the game on the next possession). Since entering the starting lineup in mid-June, Carter is averaging 20.4 points per game (seventh in the league) on 49.1% shooting.

If there’s any consolation for Sky fans, it’s that the team has the second-easiest schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. After Friday, games against the Los Angeles Sparks (Sept. 6), Wings (Sept. 8), Mystics (Sept. 11) and Dream (Sept. 17) are must-wins. ESPN Analytics currently gives Chicago a 61.9% chance of making the playoffs, behind Atlanta’s 34.4%.

The Challenges Indiana Will Bring to Chicago

Since mid-June, Indiana has the third-best record (behind only the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx) and the best offense (107.0 offensive rating) in the league. It has been particularly hot since the Olympic break, going 4-1 with wins over the Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Dream and Connecticut Sun; its 6.7 net rating in August ranks third in the league.

The team’s chemistry has only grown since the season began. Clark has looked like a maestro leading the offense and has improved her ability to get downhill and finish at the rim. Boston is back to her dominant ways, averaging a 16-point double-double since June 13. Mitchell is having one of the best runs in Fever history with five straight 20-point games and is second in the league in scoring after the Olympics (25.6 PPG, 49.5% shooting, 41.7% from 3).

“The maturity and the toughness that my players showed tonight was just unbelievable,” Fever coach Christie Sides said Wednesday after Indiana defeated the Sun for the first time since 2021. “We’ve seen them grow up, from where we started to where we are now. Connecticut is an unbelievable team. I’m so proud of these players.”

The bigger picture is even more promising: The Fever’s 15 wins are their most since 2016 (17-17) and a .500 or better finish is within reach.

Chicago’s defense will have to be more disciplined than it has been in recent weeks if it wants to contain Indiana’s offensive unit, which is firing on all cylinders.

Keep an eye on the ROY race

Friday’s game is another chance to settle the rookie of the year debate. Both players have had historic rookie seasons, but according to bookmakers, it’s not really a race. ESPN BET has Clark at -5000 to win, with Reese at +1800.

After Wednesday, Clark now has 22 games with 15 points and 5 assists, the most in a single season in WNBA history. She also set a rookie record for most 3-pointers in a season (88), while leading the league in assists (8.1 per game) and ranking 10th in scoring (18.0 points per game). No player has ever averaged that stat line in a season before.

Reese, meanwhile, has tied Tina Charles’ WNBA rookie double-double record (22) and needs seven more to break the league’s single-season record. She had an eye-popping streak of three straight games with 20-plus rebounds, something no other WNBA player has accomplished before. Her current rate (12.9 boards per game) would shatter the league’s single-season record.

As successful as their individual rookie seasons have been, Clark and Reese are competitors who care about winning first and foremost, and Friday should only intensify the budding rivalry.

Other games to check out

Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings
Friday at 7:30pm ET (ION)

The 11th-ranked Wings made things interesting last week with a 22-point comeback win over Los Angeles on Sunday, scoring 40 points in the fourth quarter. They then defeated the two-time defending champions. Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard are averaging more than 20 points per game in August — and they’re looking to beat the red-hot Lynx, winners of seven straight games.

Storm in Seattle at Connecticut Sun
Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET (NBA TV)

These teams last met in June and will now face off twice in three days. Seattle has looked shaky since returning from the break, losing three of its last five games, but managed to pull out a double against Atlanta on Wednesday. After its first loss to the Fever since July 2021, Connecticut’s tough schedule features three games in four days with back-to-backs Saturday (in D.C.) and Sunday at home.