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What We Learned for Fantasy Football in the 2024 Preseason: AFC
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What We Learned for Fantasy Football in the 2024 Preseason: AFC

The preseason has come to a close and week 1 is now upon us. With the final batch of fantasy football drafts approaching, this is a good time to reflect on what we learned from the preseason and how we can apply it to our fantasy football drafts.

Who’s first? The AFC.

Baltimore Ravens

There’s been some hype surrounding tight end Isaiah Likely this offseason, with some talk of the Ravens using more of a two-tight end set in 2024. He certainly deserved some more opportunity, averaging 12 PPR points per game with Mark Andrews out of the lineup last season. And over the final five weeks of the year, Likely averaged nearly 60 receiving yards and 15 fantasy points per game.

Buffalo Bills

To be fair, we learned from Buffalo that we don’t know what the wide receiver rotation will look like. Curtis Samuel (turf toe) barely played in preseason, while Mack Hollins was also sidelined. One valuable piece of information is which wideouts will be on the field in the 12 personnel, but because the wide receiver room wasn’t at full strength, we didn’t really get that answer. And since I expect the Bills to run two tight end sets 30%+ of the time, this is crucial.

Cincinnati Bengals

Like Buffalo, what I wanted to learn most in Cincy wasn’t fully answered during the preseason. With Joe Mixon gone, there’s a big opportunity for either Chase Brown or Zack Moss. But Moss was absent for the first preseason game, which led to elite usage from Brown. And during practice, we’ve seen both Brown and Moss use the pass game and goal-line touches in this offense, so Week 1 will likely teach us a lot.

Cleveland Browns

Cedric Tillman was one of my favorite receivers in the 2023 draft class, and despite a quiet rookie season, I’m not giving up on him. Sure, Cleveland added Jerry Jeudy this offseason, but he hasn’t exactly been reliable in his NFL career thus far. And Tillman has impressed in training camp.

Denver Broncos

Jaleel McLaughlin should be on your radar in PPR formats. That was the case for months, but it became even more apparent when the Broncos released Samaje Perine. The third-down/pass-catching role in a Sean Payton offense is absolute PPR gold for fantasy football purposes. Perine filled that role last year, leading all running backs in receptions in the two-minute drill (25) while ranking ninth in third-down receptions (14). He played 93% of the team’s snaps in the two-minute drill, as well as 67% on long down and distance passes. Payton’s offense has always relied heavily on the screen game, and that’s no different in 2023. 23.3% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts went behind the line of scrimmage last year (4th), and he also posted a 12.1% screen dropback rate. Expect that to continue this season, especially with Bo Nix at quarterback. Payton has been a tight end since 2019, with 749 of his passing yards coming off screens in 2023, while 27% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage. And Payton has been using McLaughlin in the screen game since last season, ranking sixth in receptions (17) and ninth in targets (18) off screens as a rookie.

Houston Texans

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 19: Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (7) prepares to snap the ball during the first quarter during the NFL preseason game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans on August 19, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

While there has been much debate over which Houston wideouts should be drafted where in fantasy leagues, the takeaway here is that the Texans are going to score a lot of points this season. C.J. Stroud looked great in limited preseason action, and the offensive line should be healthier in 2024.

Indianapolis Colts

With Josh Downs sidelined, we’ve seen Adonai Mitchell play more (and flourish) outside the slot during preseason. Mitchell is very fluid with his routes, especially on deep passes, which could be a good fit for Anthony Richardon’s arm. We’ll see when Downs can return, but Mitchell should move up in the rankings for Week 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 30: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 30, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Trevor Lawrence’s touchdown regression is going to hit this season. In fact, it already has, as he threw two touchdowns to Evan Engram in Jacksonville’s final preseason game. Last year, Lawrence completed just over 45 percent of his passes from inside the 10-yard line, which included multiple near touchdowns. A bounce-back season is in sight, especially considering how good Brian Thomas Jr. looks.

Kansas City Chiefs

We may have underestimated Xavier Worthy. He has shown tremendous potential throughout training camp and consistently makes plays deep down the field. His size won’t be an issue in this offense because of all the pre-snap motion Andy Reid uses, and with Marquise Brown sidelined for at least Week 1, there’s a huge opportunity here.

Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White should absolutely get the bulk of the early down work, but I worry that his upside in fantasy will be limited due to his lack of involvement on passing downs. Dylan Laube and Ameer Abdullah took him off the field on most third downs in the preseason, which isn’t what you want, especially when the Raiders are going to trail in a handful of games this season.

Los Angeles Chargers

We know the Chargers want to run the ball this season, and when they do, I think the efficiency will be solid. The offensive line has impressed in preseason, often creating wide lanes for the running backs to find.

Miami Dolphins

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 24: Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs for positive yardage in the second half during the game between the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 24, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – SEPTEMBER 24: Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane (28) runs for positive yardage in the second half during the game between the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 24, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

After an absurd rookie season, it makes sense for the Dolphins to give De’Von Achane more work in his second year. And his usage in the preseason should excite many, as Miami drafted Achane out wide and gave him multiple planned targets and touches in the passing game.

New England Patriots

While Jacoby Brissett will start in Week 1, the preseason told us what we pretty much knew all along: Drake Maye is pretty good. He looked great in preseason action, and regardless of who ends up under center, I have every confidence the Patriots offense will be light years better than it was last season.

New York Jets

Braelon Allen is great. Sure, Breece Hall is going to dominate the work, but Allen has shown clearly that he is Hall’s immediate handcuffs. If the latter is forced to miss a snap, the rookie becomes a top-15 fantasy football running back.

Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens is poised to get a ton of targets, and that became particularly clear when Brandon Aiyuk re-signed with San Francisco. In four games without Diontae Johnson last year, Pickens averaged 8.3 targets per game while posting a 29% target share and a 25% target per route run rate. And in Pittsburgh’s Week 1 preseason game, Pickens saw multiple targets, including a designed screen. He had three screen targets all of last season.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have basically said as much, but this backfield is going to be as close to a 50/50 split as possible. Both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears saw early-down, third-down and short-yardage work during the preseason, and it could simply depend on which running back has the hot hand each week.