Alex Pereira will make his third title defense of 2024 when he puts the UFC light heavyweight championship on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. (ESPN+).

Pereira, No. 2 in ESPN’s pound-for-pound rankings, has won each of his last three title fights by knockout. But that hasn’t deterred Rountree, who said he plans to keep the fight going against the champion. Rountree, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s division rankings, enters the fight on a five-fight winning streak, including knockouts of his last two opponents.

In the co-main event, women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington makes her first defense of the title against former champion Julianna Peña. Pennington is on a six-fight winning streak dating back to January 2020. Meanwhile, Peña has not competed since losing the title in a rematch against Amanda Nunes in July 2022.

Andreas Hale spoke with retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst Alan Jouban to get his take on the main event, while women’s bantamweight fighter Miesha Tate gave her thoughts on the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Light Heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Alan Jouban, retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst

How Pereira wins: Be patient. Rountree will be the most dangerous at first. Even though Pereira’s fights don’t last long, he has to let the adrenaline sink in and turn the fight into a chess match. While they are both knockout artists, Pereira is more seasoned and has more tools at her disposal. When Rountree’s energy starts to wane, Pereira can turn to boxing. Rountree also likes to lunge forward with one or two powerful strikes. If Pereira can land combinations, he can throw off Rountree’s explosive power. So let the fight settle down and start ramping up the action with the boxing as the fight moves into the later rounds.

How Rountree Wins: Roundtree needs to come out with fire early. Use that explosive power to get the job done as quickly as possible. He cannot allow the fight to get into the later rounds where his adrenaline will wane and the technique may become sloppy, which Pereira will exploit. He must believe in himself and not become complacent.

X factor: Leg kicks. Rountree has devastating, explosive leg kicks. I know that because I trained with him and he hurt my leg many times. But that was left-handed against left-handed. Against Pereira he has to use his inside leg kicks. We’re going to see a leg kick battle in this. Both fighters will use the power leg kick to the inside leg, which can often result in low blows or a broken foot as it can strike the kneecap. It will be interesting to see who gains the upper hand in this battle.

Prediction: Pereira wins by TKO.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of publication. Visit ESPN BET for the most up-to-date odds.

Parker: Pereira wins by KO/TKO (-375), use in parlay. I like Pereira in this match, but I’m not happy with the chances we’re giving him, even if he wins by KO/TKO.

This is a duel between two good attackers. Rountree is a threat to upset Pereira with his aggression and high-level kickboxing, especially considering Pereira keeps his hands low. But Pereira, with his precision, has more ways to win. Keep in mind that Pereira has trained with former UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira, so don’t be surprised if he’s the first to shoot for a takedown. I’d lean more than 1.5 rounds here, but take Pereira to win by KO/TKO and it throws in your parlay.

Women’s Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña

Miesha Tate, UFC women’s bantamweight

How Pennington wins: Be smart and calculated. Don’t be surprised if she adds takedowns to her game plan against Peña. Pennington is also a big body at 135 pounds with great balance and she is very heavy when she gets on top of you. Her hitting will also be crucial. She uses different angles well, making it difficult to predict where the punches and kicks will come from.

How Peña wins: She needs to come forward and apply pressure. Closing the distance and controlling the cage will be important in this matchup. Pennington is a clean and sharp striker, so Peña needs to push her against the cage and use her clinching. Peña is good at rushing in, but she doesn’t do it with reckless abandon. She has an underestimated ability to close the distance and connect with her opponent with her body. And when she takes Pennington down, Peña is heavy up top and very good in that position.

X factor: Wrestling. Who can better initiate the clinch and go for takedowns? Who will be first on the mat in first place? It will be a battle to come first all night long and that will impress the judges if there isn’t much action in the fight.

Prediction: No. I’m too close to both of them to make a prediction.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of publication. Visit ESPN BET for the most up-to-date odds.

Parker: Pennington wins (-170). Two factors are not in Peña’s favor in this match. First, Peña is coming off a layoff of more than two years. And second, her lack of technicality is striking. Her only path to victory against Pennington is to lean on her wrestling for all five rounds, but I don’t see that happening. Pennington can punch better with good takedown defense and she has the cardio to match Peña’s pace. If you don’t like where the moneyline odds currently lie, take Pennington to win by decision at even money.

Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

Odds accurate as of publication. Visit ESPN BET for the most up-to-date odds.

Welterweight: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

Buckley wins by decision. Buckley is given an opponent whose game plan he already knows. Thompson is a high IQ fighter who wants to strike from a distance and use his lateral movement to avoid Buckley’s powerful strikes and takedown attempts. Buckley needs to mix it up here because if he plays Thompson’s game he could lose this fight. But if he combines the takedowns and ground game, he can control the fight.

Thompson’s durability allows you to ensure Buckley wins by decision. “Wonderboy” will have his moments in this fight, but for Buckley, getting the win is most important and that will likely be a decision.

Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington

Pennington wins (-175). Like Peña, Esparza will have to rely on her wrestling to win on Saturday. Pennington has a high fighting IQ with excellent takedown defense and will be the much better striker in this match. As long as Pennington can keep this fight going, he should have no problem getting the win here.