As the Brewers head home for their final series of the regular season, they know what their schedule will look like. They have three games against the Mets, then an NL Wild Card Series at home. That’s a very relieving situation, especially when you consider the state of the rest of the National League.

The situation for the Mets entering the series this weekend is complicated, to say the least. At this point the whole wildcard picture is a mess. With Hurricane Helene heading towards landfall and Atlanta on its expected path, rain is already causing major damage in the area. The final two games of the Braves-Mets series were rained out and will be made up as a traditional doubleheader on Monday.

For the Mets, this puts them in a very difficult situation. They currently hold the fifth seed in the National League as measured in percentage points against the Diamondbacks (the Mets also hold the tiebreaker). The Braves are one game back. The Mets would have to play all three games in Milwaukee, fly back to Atlanta for a doubleheader and then fly back to Milwaukee or to San Diego for the wild card series. There’s even a long-term scenario still in play in which the Mets host the wild-card series.

The Mets also have other teams to watch this weekend. The Braves and Royals meet this weekend in Atlanta, with both teams battling for a wild-card spot in their respective leagues. With Hurricane Helene expected to hit the area, another postponement is possible which could leave the Braves in an even tighter position. Meanwhile, the Padres and Diamondbacks meet in Arizona. The Diamondbacks will fight for a spot, but the Padres will still have something to play for (the NL West title or the fourth seed for a home series). Even the Phillies and Dodgers aren’t in a position to rest yet, as they both battle for the top seed and home field advantage.

Of all these teams, the Brewers have the simplest situation: they will be the three seed and host someone. It’s about managing the workload and setting up the pitching before the postseason in this series. Pat Murphy will have to decide how much to push the Mets knowing they are a potential opponent next week. He will also have to ensure that the team remains in good condition.

Now that all of that is out of the way, let’s talk about the Mets. It’s a different team than the one the Brewers faced at the start of the season. Their first two months were incredibly hard. They started the season 0-5, but went on a six-game winning streak in mid-April that put them at 12-8. Then they slumped again, reaching a low of 11 games under .500 at 24-35 on June 2. From that moment on, they fought back. Since then, they’ve gone from 63 to 35, from 11 games under .500 to 17 games more. That includes a nine-game winning streak to start the month of September, as well as an overall record of 15-6 on the month.

The Mets’ offense has been a key factor for them all season. They are one of six teams above 200 home runs (203) and have a top 10 offense in runs scored (seventh, 751), on-base percentage (eighth, .321), slugging percentage ( ninth, .418), and wRC+ (seventh, 110).

Francisco Lindor has been the best player in this offense so far this season. He leads the team in hits (163), runs scored (103) and stolen bases (27). He also ranks second on the team in several other categories. He played in every game until September 16, when he was held out of the lineup due to lower back pain. He didn’t go on the IL and was set to return as a pinch hitter on Tuesday, but didn’t get a plate appearance as the game ended with him in the on-deck circle. He was expected to start on Wednesday, but rain delayed his return for another two days. He will be fully ready to go when the series starts on Friday.

The Mets also have three other players on offense with a wRC+ over 125. Mark Vientos was the starting third baseman and was solid at the plate all year. Jose Iglesias provided a boost to the team at the end of May. He started the season on a minor league contract before joining the roster and posting a team-high batting average of .336 and a wRC+ of 138. Pete Alonso is still a power threat, leading the team in home runs (38) and RBI (88).

One of the biggest reasons for the Mets’ rebound was the turnaround in their pitching staff. In the first half of the season, their team ERA was 22nd in the league (4.23) and their team FIP was 23rd (4.28). They turned that around in the second half, improving their team’s ERA to sixth (3.47) and FIP to seventh (3.73).

A key part of that turnaround is in the bullpen, with four relievers with an ERA under 2.50 (Dedniel Núñez, Phil Maton, José Buttó, Sean Reid-Foley). That doesn’t include their closer, Edwin Díaz, who has 20 saves this season and a 2.59 ERA, 1.89 FIP and 15.53 K/9 in the second half. Reed Garrett was also a key part of the bullpen, leading the bullpen in innings pitched (56 ²⁄₃) and also posted a 1.84 ERA and 1.94 FIP in the second half.

Meanwhile, the rotation is in flux as the Mets need to refocus after the rainouts. Two of their top starters, David Peterson and Sean Manaea, were lined up to pitch in the final two games of the Braves series. After the rain showers, however, that hangs in the air. The one benefit of the cancellations for the Mets is that they will essentially have all of their starters available for this series and the doubleheader on Monday, and can align them however they want. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Tylor Megill could all play roles in the rotation in this series, although the team has not yet announced any starters.

Probable pitchers

Friday, September 28 at 7:10 PM: TBA vs. Frankie Montas

Even though no starter has been named yet, Sean Manaea (3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP) is expected to start for the Mets on Friday. Since he’s been their strongest starter all season, it’s almost a requirement that he start on Friday to ensure the Mets can get him to pitch in a potential Wild Card series (a Friday start would allow him to game two with regular rest). Manaea leads the team in strikeouts (183) and is second in innings pitched this season (178). His last start was on Saturday when he gave up three runs in seven innings to the Phillies. (Update: The Mets have officially named Manaea Friday’s starter.)

With Frankie Montas set to pitch on Friday, he is lined up as one of the starters in the Wild Card Series, likely along with Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. Montas could use a rebound game before heading into the postseason. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he didn’t get through three innings, as he allowed eight runs (seven earned).

Saturday, September 29 at 6:15 PM: TBA vs. TBA (FOX Game)

Sunday, September 30 at 2:10 PM: TBA vs. to be determined further

These games are all up in the air, with the Brewers preparing for the NLWCS and the Mets still deciding who to throw in which game. Still, it’s likely we’ll see Colin Rea and DL Hall in these two games, along with some other long relievers. Aaron Civale pitched today so we probably won’t see him again in the regular season. Tobias Myers might even get an inning of work here, as there would otherwise be more than a week between his start on Tuesday and the wild-card series. Also, don’t be surprised if we see a random pitcher called up to play some innings (e.g. Caleb Boushley last season).

Prediction

This series is one of the hardest to predict this season just because there is so much uncertainty in it. How hard will the Brewers play? It’s not a good idea to cross the line here, but we’ve seen too many teams rest too much in the postseason and then come out short. The one factor we know will be there is the Mets’ push for a postseason spot. For that reason alone, I predict the Mets will take this series, while the Brewers will take one to avoid starting the postseason with a loss.