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    • Nick Sirianni is one of the seven on notice
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    Nick Sirianni is one of the seven on notice

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    As premature and unfair as it often seems to discuss the job security of NFL head coaches ahead of a given season, Tuesday was the latest grim reminder that sweeping changes are a constant stream in the league’s ever-changing news cycle.

    With twelve games left in the 2024 regular season, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson still decided to land Robert Saleh after three-plus seasons and a 20-36 record, losing the fast-fading Super Bowl -entrusted his franchise’s hopes to Jeff Ulbrich – a linebacker for ten seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, who has extensive experience as an NFL defensive coordinator, but none as a head coach – and perhaps, to some extent, QB Aaron Rodgers.

    Whether Ulbrich (and Rodgers) can hotwire this team and get it in the air like Maverick Mitchell can with a rickety F-14 remains to be seen. What is almost undoubtedly true is that Saleh is just the first of what will likely be at least half a dozen HC dismissals if recent history is any indication.

    Here are seven coaches, listed alphabetically, whose derrières could be just a tad warmer now that the first hot seat of 2024 is already available:

    Dennis Allen, Saints of New Orleans

    Perhaps no one can sympathize with Saleh better. Allen’s team (krewe?) got off to a blistering 2-0 start, scoring 91 points in the first two games under new OC Klint Kubiak. But it has come back down to earth – and failed to win – since Derek Carr’s latest oblique injury added to the list of quarterback issues Allen had with the post-Drew Brees Saints. Now the team’s fortunes appear to be at least temporarily tied to de facto rookie QB Jake Haener or true rookie Spencer Rattler. Maybe one of them catches lightning in a bottle. Perhaps Carr will return sooner than expected and recapture the early-season voodoo. And maybe none of that happens, and Allen’s (current) 26-49 year coaching career leads to what seems like the inevitable conclusion in The Big Easy.

    Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers

    It seems patently unfair to put even more fire on a rookie head coach five games into his tenure. But Canales, a pretty ugly 1-4 so far, was brought to Charlotte largely to patch up second-year QB Bryce Young … but instead ended up benching him after just two starts. Canales might do everything he can and might even press the right buttons despite being dealt a weak hand. But that may not be enough, as he works for trigger-happy owner David Tepper, who has employed seven coaches (interims included) since the start of the 2019 season.

    Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

    Perhaps no team in sports can experience the many peaks and valleys – real or imagined – in the span of five weeks the way “America’s Team” consistently does. In fairness, McCarthy should probably be commended for getting the Cowboys to a 3-2 record, given the long-term contract issues and heavy personnel losses his team suffered in owner Jerry Jones’ self-proclaimed “all in” tier outside the season. Still, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt that the 2024 Cowboys aren’t fielding the same talent as the teams that won 12 games each of the past three years. Injuries to defensive stalwarts Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and DaRon Bland certainly don’t help, and a schedule that’s about to serve the Lions, 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Texans and Commanders in order. But nothing works against McCarthy more than his thus-far inability to end Dallas’ nearly three-decade Super Bowl absence — or even get the Cowboys past the divisional round of the playoffs — ‘failures ‘ which are only exacerbated by the fact that he is working towards an ending season. contract. All this at a time when Jones could easily move on to a legend like Bill Belichick in 2025, another established coach like Mike Vrabel or any number of highly regarded young coordinators if McCarthy ultimately fails to do more with less.

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    Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

    Asked recently – and rightly so – about his position during the Jags’ 0-4 start, he seemed both irritated and dismissive. “My status?” Pederson said. “That’s a bit of a weird question, but okay.” Perhaps also a bit strange that he also defended the attacking play calling (not to mention his often nosy game management) while shifting the focus to the performance of his players – probably not a good sign considering the hundreds of millions that Shad Khan has made in recent times has made the selection. months later the owner said: “(W)inning – winning now – is an expectation.” Still, Pederson has won twice in Jacksonville’s last 11 games, dating back to last season’s meltdown that cost Khan a second straight AFC South title. Now in his eighth season as head coach, Pederson has won as many as 10 regular-season games just once – with the Eagles in 2017 during their magic carpet ride to a Super Bowl victory. But magic seems to be extremely scarce in Duval County.

    Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

    He gave the Silver and Black a much-needed shot in the arm midway through last season, going 5-4 in the wake of the Josh McDaniels debacle. Pierce then became the rather rare interim head coach to successfully put the first part of that title behind him. He’s off to a 2-3 start in 2024, largely hampered by the unsettled quarterback situation that has persisted since the McDaniels regime unceremoniously and clumsily cast Carr aside two years ago. Yet Pierce’s background as a player hasn’t stopped him from pointing the finger at his own boys, some of whom he recently accused of making “business decisions” on the field – and that was before he apparently got caught up in the quick decisions of the team. dissolution of marriage to All-Pro WR Davante Adams. Does Pierce probably deserve more time to find his feet – especially with a stabilized QB position? Yes. Is he the fourth coach of the Raiders in the past four seasons? Yes. The circumstances have certainly varied, but job security for Pierce’s recent predecessors has become an increasing topic of discussion as of late.

    Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

    He is 38-22 in three-plus seasons, never missed the playoffs and had Philly this came close to winning Super Bowl 57. But the spotlight has been almost entirely on Sirianni since the Eagles’ 10-1 start turned into a 1-6 finish in 2023, including an embarrassing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wildcard round. It included a lot of the finger-pointing and gossip you’d expect in a drama-filled Philadelphia story, but has also drawn increasing attention to the apparently strained relationship between Sirianni and Jalen Hurts — and the firing of the quarterback with the $50+ million-per- An annual salary is rarely the path of least resistance. Injuries and an early loss to RB Saquon Barkley against Atlanta have contributed to the Eagles’ uneven 2-2 start. But if they stumble out of the bye against a quartet of teams that are currently collectively 5-15, it wouldn’t be a shock if Sirianni quickly finds the man next to Saleh on the unemployment line.

    Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

    How does someone who won the league’s Coach of the Year award in 2020 and ’23 stack up on this list, you ask? Two words: Deshaun and Watson. Stefanski took Cleveland on rare playoff trips each of those years, but with Baker Mayfield and especially Joe Flacco as the quarterbacks most responsible for those teams’ respective success. Watson, now infamously acquired and extended ahead of the 2022 campaign, was a shadow of the player who previously played for the Houston Texans. Whether Stefanski can’t or won’t willingly depart from him leaves this team in a no-win situation — almost literally considering the 1-4 start. And again, Saleh’s ouster reminds us that it’s usually much easier to fire the coach than the quarterback. And while self-sabotage is certainly not a route Stefanski would take, it’s worth wondering whether he’ll ultimately seek an escape route given the likelihood of this organization remaining financially tied to Watson — and his poor play, overall lack of responsibility and albatross of a contract – until spring 2027.

    ***

    Follow Nate Davis of USA TODAY Sports on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

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