A broad area of ​​low pressure and storms we’ve been tracking over the Gulf of Mexico this week is expected to bring persistent heavy rain showers to much of the Florida peninsula – including all of South Florida – beginning in earnest on Sunday and see you next week.

As much as 3 to 4 inches of widespread rainfall is expected through next Friday, with some areas seeing more than 12 inches of rain locally. While the exact timing and details of the heaviest rain will depend on where the low pressure moves and how organized it becomes, areas from the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Daytona Beach south through the Florida Keys will be at greatest risk for potential flooding problems . next week.

Of the past 142 days (since mid-May) in the Miami area, 130 of them have seen high temperatures of at least 88 degrees (112 days at 90 degrees or higher), so high temperatures in the mid to even low 80s will occur next week. an additional advantage of the cloud cover. The relief from the heat will not happen without an increasing threat of flooding, which we will have to monitor in the coming days.

Complicated development scenario

As we discussed in this newsletter on Monday, the area over the Gulf is broadly associated with the Central American Gyre – an elongated region of rotation and storminess that extends from the eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean.

Earlier this week, models focused on the eastern part of this broader Central American Gyre from the western Caribbean, which has since been rotating over the south-central Gulf.

However, in recent days, models have focused on the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11, which is crossing southern Mexico and expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It is this stretch of spin further southwest that is now expected to be the dominant focus of any tropical development next week.

The shift from the northeastern lobe to the lobe further south and west gives the disturbance a little more runway under hostile higher winds to the north to try to take shape.

That said, it will likely become entangled in a stalled front next week and strong jet stream winds near the front will pose an ongoing obstacle to significant organization.

For now, the NHC gives the area a medium chance of formation, but regardless of whether a tropical (or subtropical) depression or storm develops next week, the result will be heavy rainfall and the possibility of minor to moderate flooding along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Open Atlantic on a tear

As we discussed yesterday, the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is unusually active for October.

Kirk is now a large and extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane, and some reliable satellite estimates suggest it could have reached Category 5 status by early Friday morning.

Although Kirk will head out to sea, as we discussed earlier this week, the hurricane’s extended swell will reach the US East Coast Sunday through Monday, increasing the risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches .

Behind Kirk, Leslie is slowly growing stronger. Although Leslie is limited by wind shear due to extensive outflow from Kirk, wind shear should decrease as Kirk accelerates northward this weekend. Leslie is forecast to become the 8th hurricane of the season in the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days.

Fortunately, Leslie, like Kirk, is expected to stay over open water during his hurricane season.