Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Florida tonight through early Thursday, posing a major threat to life and property as it ravages the state with devastating storm surge, devastating wind damage, potentially catastrophic flooding and several tornadoes.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its discussion Wednesday morning.

This is a life-threatening situation and all evacuations and storm preparations must be completed as quickly as possible.

(CARD TRACKER: Spaghetti models and more)

Here is the latest status: Milton is a Category 5 hurricane with winds of up to 160 mph as of 5 a.m. EDT. It is centered 300 miles southwest of Tampa and tracking northeast at 14 mph.

The hurricane’s rainfall is spreading across parts of the state well before landfall, as seen in the radar snapshot below.

Milton has grown in size over the past 24 hours, with tropical storm force winds as far as 120 miles (200 kilometers) from the center. As it approaches Florida it will continue to grow even larger, meaning the impact will affect a wide area.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect here: Hurricane warnings cover much of central Florida from the Gulf side to the Atlantic side, including the Tampa Bay area, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 75 mph or higher) are expected within the warning area by Wednesday evening through early Thursday.

Several tropical storm watches and warnings cover other parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia, southeastern South Carolina, and southern North Carolina, as shown on the map below.

A storm surge warning is in effect along Florida’s Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A portion of the Atlantic coast is also under a storm surge warning, from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River in northeastern Florida.

This means that a life-threatening water rise due to a storm surge is expected in these areas from Wednesday to Thursday.

Here is the latest timing and intensity forecast: Milton will gradually weaken as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear, but it should remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or 4) until landfall sometime Wednesday night through early Thursday.

It is important to note that this weakening will not reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including storm surges, destructive winds and flooding rainfall. As previously mentioned, Milton will also become larger as it approaches Florida, allowing the effects of wind, storm surge and rainfall to spread over a larger area, both inside and outside the forecast cone.

In short, don’t let your guard down if you see Milton weakening as it approaches landfall, as this is expected and the hurricane will remain an extremely serious threat to Florida.

Impacts forecast

Storm surge

The latest NHC forecast calls for a storm surge of as much as 8 to 15 feet above ground level if the peak surge coincides with high tides along Florida’s west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Much of Florida’s west coast will see high tides on Wednesday afternoon and high tides on Thursday morning.

The storm surge will be most destructive near and south of where the center of the storm crosses the coast. If you are in an area prone to storm surges, follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if instructed to do so.

If the storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay comes to fruition, it would be the highest there in more than a century. A track near or north of the bay would produce the highest wave potential there, while a track slightly further south would shift the worst of the wave south.

Storm surge could also inundate parts of Florida’s east coast, as well as coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina, due to winds blowing onshore as Milton passes Wednesday night through Thursday.

Please note that adjustments to the storm surge forecast below may be made based on Milton’s exact track.

Wind damage

The most destructive winds, which could cause structural damage, down trees and knock out power, will occur near where downtown Milton crosses the coast into west-central Florida and then runs inland through central Florida toward the Orlando and Cape areas Canaveral. Power outages can last for days in these areas.

The timing for the strongest winds will begin late Wednesday along the western Gulf Coast and then spread eastward over central Florida during the first part of Thursday.

Areas further away from the landfall point in North and South Florida will also see some strong wind gusts that could at least down trees and cause scattered power outages.

Rainfall Floods

Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding – and moderate to major river flooding – is expected from Milton in Florida’s central and northern peninsula.

Totals in these areas could reach 6 to 12 inches, with 18 inches locally through Thursday.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare “high risk” flood threat for parts of central Florida, including the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas, for Wednesday and Thursday due to this excessive rainfall.

(For even more detailed weather data in your area, check out your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Tornadoes

The threat of several tornadoes will persist across Florida’s central and southern peninsula through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some tornadoes can be strong, meaning EF2 or greater intensity.

An isolated tornado threat could continue across East Central and South Florida on Thursday.

Summary of Milton so far

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the morning of October 5 and was designated Tropical Storm Milton shortly thereafter.

The storm then rapidly intensified into Hurricane Milton approximately 24 hours later at 1:00 PM CDT on October 6.

The next day, Milton underwent another incredible round of rapid intensification. Winds increased from 90 mph at 1 a.m. CDT on October 7 to 186 mph just 15 hours later at 4 p.m. CDT.

Milton’s winds of 185 miles per hour made it one of only nine other Atlantic hurricanes to reach that wind threshold or higher.

The pressure dropped to 897 millibars, the lowest observed for any Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005. That also ranks as the fifth-lowest pressure ever recorded for any Atlantic hurricane.