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Georgia-Alabama confidential: Coaches, scouts break it down
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Georgia-Alabama confidential: Coaches, scouts break it down

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — By nearly any metric, Alabama and Georgia have been the class of college football in recent seasons.

Starting the night Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench to slay Georgia in the national title game in January 2018, this marks the seventh consecutive time these teams have met with both ranked in the top 10. Only one of those games wasn’t a top-five matchup: last year’s SEC title game, when the No. 8 Tide took down the top-ranked Dawgs.

Program success means elite talent, and no schools have churned out more high-end NFL players in recent seasons. Alabama has produced 18 first-round picks the past five years and Georgia has produced 13. So it’s not surprising that 17 NFL teams will be sending a combined 23 scouts to the game.

There’s a new look to the rivalry, with Kalen DeBoer facing his first high-profile test as Alabama’s coach. And he’ll do it with Alabama as a home underdog for the first time since 2007. And Kirby Smart enters the game 1-5 against the Crimson Tide. Georgia is 45-2 since the start of 2021 with both losses coming against the Crimson Tide, per ESPN Research.

How will this matchup between No. 4 Alabama and No. 2 UGA unfold? ESPN spoke with a half-dozen NFL scouts and a handful of coaches who’ve faced the teams. The vast majority picked Georgia, which clearly has more overall talent in the minds of the scouts.

Some predictions of Georgia were buttressed with caution, as Alabama’s Jalen Milroe took down the Bulldogs in last year’s SEC title game with two touchdown passes and a heavy diet of the quarterback run game. “I still think Jalen Milroe is the hardest man to tackle in college football,” said an assistant coach who played the Tide this year. “If Georgia can’t tackle him, they’ll have a hard day.”

Star Georgia defensive lineman Mykel Williams is questionable and unlikely to be 100 percent if he does play, which will loom large.

While Georgia has a swath of talent, it’s perhaps not quite the same high level as years like 2021 when it ended up with five first-round picks.

Could the favorite be vulnerable? Let’s break down 10 key questions that could decide it.

1. How talented is Georgia?

The Bulldogs set a record in 2022 with 15 players drafted, and they are poised to challenge that this year. Per multiple NFL scouts, it’s not unreasonable to project 11 players from UGA’s offense eventually get picked, although all may not come out this year. (The early feel at Georgia, per scouts, is that redshirt sophomore left tackle Earnest Green III will come back, for example.)

At the least, Georgia will be in the teens with draft picks. Which is a massive haul. And it’ll depend on early-entry decisions whether they break their own record. There are at least three first-round picks in that group. Quarterback Carson Beck has the highest draft ceiling, Malaki Starks has the rare gifts required to pick a safety in the first round and Williams is a bruising edge player. The best way to sum up the volume of Georgia’s talent is that one NFL scout told ESPN he wrote up 25 players. That means they’d all be considered, at minimum, priority free agents — 14 on offense, nine on defense and two on special teams. (Yes, even Georgia’s long snapper, Beau Gardner, is NFL caliber.)

Scouts caution, though, to not get too caught up by the pure volume of talent.

“It’s just funny,” said a scout with years of experience going through UGA. “Outside of those three — Beck, Starks and Williams — there’s not a whole lot of the top, elite-type talent. But there’s a lot of talent.”

2. How talented is Alabama?

The Tide have a stout roster but will likely end up with fewer players drafted than UGA. Alabama is a tough early read for scouts in terms of projecting how many players will be drafted, as the staff didn’t know much about a lot of the players entering camp. Also, there are a handful of transfers who’ve popped — think safety Keon Sabb who came from Michigan — who scouts are getting their arms around.

It’s safe to project Alabama as having double-digit draft players, which during the four-team playoff era was always a good indicator of a CFP-caliber team. Guard Tyler Booker is, for now, Alabama’s highest end prospect, and the Tide have linebacker Jihaad Campbell, who is rising up boards as a first-round possibility. (Milroe isn’t there yet, but he’s intriguing. More on him later.)

In total, Bama is talented by any conventional metric. Scouts estimate the Bulldogs could have five more players drafted than the Tide — think somewhere around 15 to 10 — depending on the variables of early entry.

Overall, scouts accustomed to the Alabama scouting experience remarked how different it felt at Alabama. There were so many new faces on staff, transfers and a different vibe after Nick Saban’s numbing efficiency and results. Not a negative, just different.

“That was the most shocking thing in the summer,” a scout said. “Who is this guy? Where did he come from? When you go to a school for so many years, there’s a continuity to it. You’d be on the sideline at practice, see a big prototype body and know that he’s next in line.

“Now there’s guys walking in, and you say, ‘Who is that?’ That’s not different from other programs. We just aren’t used to it at Alabama.

3. What’s the nitpick on Georgia?

In Beck, UGA has its first projected first-rounder at quarterback since Matthew Stafford. The zit on UGA’s Mona Lisa roster is the lack of explosive skill, as it lacks a player like Brock Bowers or a receiver like George Pickens. (It also doesn’t have elite lockdown corners, or at least guys who have proved to be that yet.)

The Bulldogs have four excellent wide receivers the NFL is evaluating. There’s do-it-all Dillon Bell, speedster Arian Smith, crafty Dominic Lovett and red zone threat Colbie Young. Tight end Oscar Delp is a strong prospect and reserve Ben Yurosek had draftable tape at Sanford before he transferred.

Not one projects as a top-50 pick, though.

“I think the difference is they don’t have the one difference-maker,” a veteran scout said. “A guy like Bowers who was always open, could make a play and you could throw short and he can run. He could do things to take over the game. They don’t have a skill guy like that, but they are good. They are better than a lot of other people have.”

4. What’s the nitpick on Alabama?

Alabama has a deep and solid defensive front, as Texas A&M transfer LT Overton has been effective and tackles Tim Keenan and Tim Smith are solid SEC pluggers in the middle.

But what’s missing from this Tide group are the type of maulers who often defined Saban’s teams. Scouts identify junior Jeheim Oatis as having the most NFL upside at 6-foot-3 and 325 pounds, but he has played only 52 snaps this season.

“It’s just not a vintage Alabama defensive line, where you have guys like Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne,” said a scout who has been through Alabama this year. “There’s some depth and guys with talent, but it’s just not the top talent. You appreciate the way they play, and there’s still some ability there, and I don’t want to take away from that. But it looks different.”

(Additional nitpick: none of Alabama’s tight ends are considered high-end NFL draft guys. That’s a position that has dipped from players like Irv Smith and O.J. Howard in past years.)

5. How big is this game for Carson Beck?

Beck is considered the top quarterback in this class both presumptively and a bit reluctantly. There’s no conviction on a quarterback worthy of being the No. 1 pick overall, but 66 different quarterbacks started NFL games last year. There’s a need for upgrades.

In ESPN’s early position and overall rankings, our draft experts didn’t have a quarterback in their consensus top 10. Three of ESPN’s four draft experts prefer Beck as the top quarterback. He’s in the conversation with Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Milroe for the best quarterback prospect.

Few players can benefit more than Beck from the stage on Saturday night. “I don’t think a signature performance is always needed, but it would help him,” said a veteran scout, noting that Beck doesn’t yet have a signature game. “He’s played the distributor role and did what he had to do. Now he’s got a little more on his plate, he needs to make plays and rise up.”

Another veteran scout summed up Beck’s opportunity this way. “He’s not a once-in-a-lifetime type prospect,” he said. “He’s a really good player on a really good team. I think people are going to want to see if he can really carry the team. Can he create explosive plays throwing deep accurately? The first game everyone will watch.”

The NFL need for quarterbacks has Beck well-positioned, as a third scout said he’d be surprised if the combination of Beck’s talent and the need in the NFL allows him to slip out of the top 10.

“He’s easily one of the most talented in terms of everything he does,” the scout said. “Arm-strength-wise, how he reads the field and studying and intellect, and he can make all the throws. He still has to piece some things together. There’s so much talent there, in a class without a lot of talent. I would think he’d end up going in the top-five, and I don’t foresee him slipping out of the top 10.”

Added a fourth scout: “He just needs to be efficient. And it can’t be as messy as it’s been, where he’s just running around and playing out of control. He has to play within the scheme a little bit more. If they can show that in a big game and win, it would give more evidence that he’s an NFL quarterback.”

6. How big is this game for Jalen Milroe?

Milroe is one of the most fascinating prospects in the country, as he has clearly taken steps forward in DeBoer’s offense. Milroe has eight touchdown passes, zero interceptions and his completion percentage has jumped to 67.3%.

Milroe could push his way into the top-tier NFL quarterback conversation if he continues to develop, and he deserves credit for how far he has come. He has the option to come back for a fifth year and would likely be near the top of the 2026 quarterback class with a year of development. With a big night Saturday, he could get there sooner.

One scout mentioned that the Alabama staff talks about Milroe with the acknowledgement that he could go pro.

“Some of the clips I’ve seen of him playing in the pocket look at lot better,” another scout said. “I’m interested to see. I thought he did some really good stuff on tape last year, just in terms of making plays. It’s not your traditional NFL quarterback play, but when things break down, that’s when he makes his plays. It’s going to take him more time to play traditional quarterback in the pocket.”

There will be skeptics, as a third scout said: “I’m not a big Milroe guy. I want to see him throw with better anticipation and consistency from the pocket. But he’s definitely a legit prospect.”

Milroe won over some skeptics by beating Georgia in the SEC title game last season. To scouts and coaches, he’s the key to Alabama compensating for the talent gap on Saturday night.

“Milroe gives Alabama its best chance to win,” said an opposing coach. “Georgia’s defense isn’t fundamentally built to stop the quarterback run. They’re going to try and take the whole run game away and make Alabama play one-handed. He’s going to have to prove he’s an elite thrower to win the two or three big games, like this one, for Alabama to uphold its standard.”

7. How good is Alabama freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams?

Have you heard that Ryan Williams is 17? The last time we heard this much about someone being 17 years old, Winger was pumping out ballads in the late 1980s.

The praise and hyperbole is well deserved for being one of the country’s breakout receiving stars, as Williams has an SEC leading 28.5 yards per catch.

How impressed are opposing coaches? “I haven’t seen a young receiver who understands space like he does,” said an assistant who faced them. “It didn’t matter the route routes — dig, comeback or post. Long-hipped guys like him usually aren’t that smooth. He’s smooth.”

NFL scouts won’t write up Williams for two more years, but they can’t help but notice.

“He looks like a smaller DeVonta Smith,” an NFL scout said. “He is skinny and not that tall, but he’s a baller.”

8. What can we learn from the games each team has played so far?

While Georgia blew out Clemson in the opener, the score was 6-0 at halftime and 13-3 late in the third quarter. Obviously, UGA’s offense sputtered against Kentucky, averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

Coaches saw opposing teams try to isolate and exploit senior outside linebacker Chaz Chambliss and senior safety Dan Jackson. There have been varying levels of success. “They are good, solid football players,” said one coach. “They just aren’t guys who are NFL dudes.”

The key for Alabama will be endurance and depth. “Playing Georgia is like an old-school boxing match and they body blow you,” an opposing assistant said. “And it adds up. That’s what happens up front with the defensive line.”

Another coach pointed to the potential return of Mykel Williams, the star defensive lineman who has been injured since the opener against Clemson. Williams has been limited in practice and is questionable for the Alabama game.

“Without (Williams), the defensive line isn’t the same,” said another coach. “Even with him, is that one of the best defensive lines Georgia has had since Kirby has been there? No.”

One opposing assistant said because there has been a change in Alabama staff, scheme and roster, that there could be a “false sense of security” going against the Tide.

“You go out there and it’s the same old Alabama,” the coach said. “That’s fooled people, but I think they got after Wisconsin. When people look at the two-deep, it’s not the name recognition. But it’s the same dudes running around.

“They aren’t the high-profile names, but the defensive line and linebackers are as good looking as anyone. They play hard and physical. There’s not a ton of weaknesses athletically.”

9. Who could be an X factor for Georgia?

The player who has generated the most scouting buzz for Georgia since the season began is hybrid Jalon Walker, who has played both inside linebacker and edge, a unique combination.

Walker has 1.5 sacks and two tackles for loss and has traits NFL scouts like. He had six tackles against Clemson, which kicked off the buzz. There are some comparisons in his versatility to Micah Parsons, although scouts caution it’s tough for any player to be as good overall as Parsons.

“He’s super talented,” a scout said. “When he’s in the game, he has impact traits — speed and use of his hands. He can do a little bit of everything. He’s unique. It’s surprising he’s not on the edge more.

“He’s an interesting prospect. You don’t see many guys who are inside linebackers on pass downs and rush the passer effectively and consistently. You don’t see much of that.”

There has been buzz that Walker is climbing on draft boards, but he’s a bit undersized at 6-2 and 245. That could limit the ceiling of where he’s drafted. He’s the son of a longtime high school and college coach, Curtis Walker, and Jalon Walker has been given the highest-end character grades.

Look for him to play a big role in trying to slow Milroe, as they could meet a few places around the field on Saturday night.

10. Who could be an X Factor for Alabama?

Outside of Ryan Williams, Bama’s offensive skill is pedestrian compared to some of the wide receiving corps it has had in recent years. (Again, it’s a high bar.)

One of the most interesting players is Germie Bernard, a productive reserve at Washington last season who has an intriguing skill set, as he can throw the ball on trick plays and has a full command of DeBoer’s offense.

Don’t be surprised if he’s in the thick of an interesting play or two Saturday night.

“He is really interesting,” an opposing assistant said. “When you watch their tape at Washington, he’s throwing the ball, runs reverses and jet sweeps. He’s catching screens. He’s this gadget guy, who can do everything else. Other than fearing Ryan Williams and how fast he is, he’s the guy we had to keep an eye on the most. He scared the mess out of me.”