Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night when the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South battle that could have major playoff implications.

Oddsmakers have the Falcons leading by 1.5 points before kickoff. The over/under for the game is 43.5.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction and best bet for NFL Week 5

• Buccaneers ML (+110 odds on FanDuel sportsbook)
• Tyler Allgeier over 31.5 rushing yards (-115 odds on BetMGM sportsbook)
• Chris Godwin Over 64.5 receiving yards (-113 op FanDuel sportsbook)

*odds accurate as of October 2, 2024

Thursday night games get a bad rap when it comes to matchup quality, but this Week 5 matchup should be exciting. Both teams have shown some nice flashes and there is a lot at stake heading into this match.

While Atlanta has proven to be a very competitive ball club, both teams have shown that. However, the Buccaneers have made good progress and I believe their current healthy attack will play a key role in securing the win.

The Falcons have a chance, though, and to give themselves the best chance, they need to take advantage of Tampa’s struggling defense.

With Bijan Robinson nursing a hamstring injury during a short rest week, look for Allgeier to get more carries and outperform his 31.5-yard rushing line (-115 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook).

On the Tampa side, expect Mayfield to be the center of the game plan. As a result, I expect strong performances from Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. But so far Godwin has been the main target. So he should also be able to exceed his total.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons moneyline odds analysis

Why Falcons could win as favorites

Best odds: -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook

After a tough Week 1 performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Atlanta Falcons have had a strong three weeks to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender and a strong consideration for the NFC South throne.

Offensively, Kirk Cousins ​​has shaken off the rust and started to find his rhythm with Drake London and Darnell Mooney. While the backfield tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier maintains a nice balance to keep the opposition guessing.

On the defensive side, they have been operating on a bend-don’t-break approach. While the secondary could improve, the team has only allowed 21.3 points per game, which puts them in the top half of the league.

As the season progresses, things should continue to improve on both sides of the football as there is plenty of potential for both units.

Why Buccaneers could win as underdogs

Best odds: +110 at FanDuel sportsbook

Last week was a great rebounding performance for Tampa Bay after the team suffered an embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Broncos. But a 33-16 win over the Eagles before Thursday should inspire more confidence.

Tampa’s bread and butter on offense has found ways to use Chris Godwin as their safety valve, with the defense ultimately focusing too much and opening up splash plays for other players.

Fortunately for them, the Falcons have a habit of allowing production to the opposing team’s top wideouts, as the secondary has given up an average of 89.5 yards to the other team’s top target. With Godwin’s over/under for the night set at 64.5 (-113 op FanDuel sportsbook), look for the Bucs to beat that number.

Additionally, the Bucs pass rush has gone behind with 13 sacks over the last two weeks. If they can put that pressure on Cousins, it could help them make mistakes that turn the game in their favor.