Not a lot has changed over the first four weeks of the 2024 college football season. Of the top 12 teams in the preseason AP poll, nine remain unbeaten, two have lost once — Michigan lost to Texas, the current No. 1 team, and Notre Dame fell to Northern Illinois in the only truly earth-shattering upset of the season — and only one, preseason No. 10 Florida State, now 1-3, has genuinely disappointed. We’ve been greatly entertained, but the big picture hasn’t been altered much.

In Week 5, however, the rubber meets the road. We’ve got four ranked-vs.-ranked games and plenty to keep up with, but the conversation starts with the biggest game of the season to date. For the seventh time in eight seasons — although only the second time at a home stadium — Georgia and Alabama will meet. In the past 10 years, these teams have combined for nine SEC titles and five national titles; five of their six meetings since 2017 have taken place in the SEC or CFP championship games. They are the defining programs of this era of college football.

There are lots of huge matchups coming down the pike — Ohio State vs. Oregon in Week 7, Georgia at Texas and Alabama at Tennessee in Week 8, just for starters — but as helmet games go, it’s almost impossible to top this one. It’s a hell of a tone-setter as we head into October.

Here’s everything you need to follow in a loaded Week 5. (All times are Eastern, and all lines are from ESPN BET.)

Jump to a topic:
Georgia-Bama | Louisville-Notre Dame
Oklahoma State-Kansas State
Group of 5 showdowns
Chaos superfecta | Week 5 playlist

Game of the Season I

No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

Remember that Georgia-Texas Sugar Bowl where Bevo almost stomped on Uga and Sam Ehlinger declared, “We’re baaaaack”? That’s the last time Kirby Smart lost to a currently active head coach. Tom Herman, Texas’ coach in that game, is now at Florida Atlantic. It was almost six years ago.

Since the start of the 2021 season, Smart’s Bulldogs are a staggering 45-2, with both losses coming to Alabama and now-retired Nick Saban. They’re 3-0 this year, but they’re embarking on one of the hardest stretches you’ll ever see: Over the next seven games, they’ll play four of the AP’s top six teams, three on the road. And thanks to a near misstep against Kentucky (and the corresponding drop in their SP+ rating) two weeks ago, SP+ currently gives them a much greater chance of going 8-4 or worse (15.4%) than of going 12-0 (3.6%).

They might need this one, in other words. And more often than not, they get what they need.

In its first year with DeBoer and coordinator Nick Sheridan, Alabama’s offense is more all-or-nothing than ever. Despite having faced teams with an average defensive SP+ ranking of 75.7, the Tide are currently 63rd in success rate — an on-base percentage-style measure that looks at how frequently teams are gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third or fourth — and Jalen Milroe is still taking tons of sacks. But they’re also third in yards per successful play and seventh in percentage of plays gaining at least 20 yards. Running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are averaging 9.0 yards per carry, Milroe is averaging 16.9 yards per completion (and 6.5 yards per non-sack carry), and freshman Ryan Williams is averaging an absurd 28.5 yards per reception, the most in the country for anyone with at least 10 catches.

Even with miscues and negative plays, explosiveness has created nice per-play averages. But the Tide also suffered a drought of only two touchdowns in 11 drives against South Florida in Week 2 and nearly found themselves in trouble until a late burst of touchdowns.

The matchup with Georgia’s defense is fascinating, as the Bulldogs force opponents to work either methodically or not at all, and they have yet to allow a single touchdown. They rank first in yards allowed per successful play but only 37th in success rate and 48th in three-and-out rate.

We’ve learned more about the Georgia offense than the Bama defense at this point. The Tide have been untested and almost statistically flawless: They’re first in success rate allowed, first in three-and-out rate and also third in percentage of plays gaining 20-plus yards. Even with a completely rebuilt secondary, no one has yet caused any damage: They’re allowing both the fewest and the shortest successful pass plays in the country.

On film, you can see that opponents have maybe missed an open downfield pass here and there, but you can’t ask for more than what the pass defense has achieved to date. The run defense hasn’t been incredibly disruptive (they’re 40th in rushing success rate allowed), but Georgia hasn’t been running the ball as frequently or as well as usual (71st in rushing success rate). Starting running back Trevor Etienne missed the season opener against Clemson and enjoyed a 45-yard run against Tennessee Tech, but he has otherwise averaged just 4.9 yards per carry. Georgia also ranks 51st in blown run block rate, and now star right guard Tate Ratledge is out for a bit.

More of Georgia’s down-to-down efficiency has come via the pass, but that has primarily come from a good quick-passing game. Quarterback Carson Beck ranks 27th nationally with a 68.3% completion rate, but he falls to 94th if you look only at passes thrown beyond the line of scrimmage (54.9%).

Four players have caught at least five passes — wideouts Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, Dillon Bell and Colbie Young — and they’re averaging just 11.8 yards per catch among them. Beck threw touchdown passes of 50 yards to Smith and 22 yards to Bell against Tennessee Tech but is otherwise just 1-for-8 on passes 20-plus yards downfield. Granted, the Dawgs have already played against two SP+ top-40 defenses, which is more than most, but Beck’s rapport with a redesigned receiving corps was maybe the closest thing Georgia had to a question mark heading into the season, and it remains a concern.

For as frequently as these teams have played of late, this will incredibly be the first time this game takes place in a packed Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2007, Saban’s first season as Bama head coach. There’s some nice symmetry there. The Dawgs won that one by 3, and the sportsbooks expect them to do about the same here. With the schedule they’re facing, I would strongly advise it.

Current line: Dawgs -2 | SP+ projection: Tide by 3.3 | FPI projection: Tide by 6.1

A CFP eliminator (more or less) in South Bend

No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock)

With an expanded CFP field and a certain number of two-loss teams likely to get in, we can’t really declare any major game between top-20 teams a must-win at this point. But it sure feels like one for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish were already facing minimal margin for error with a shaky-looking schedule, and that was before Week 11 opponent Florida State’s collapse and, of course, Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish will likely be at the bottom of any pack of two-loss contenders and probably need to win out to feel confident in a bid.

Louisville’s situation is a bit less desperate. The Cardinals are unbeaten and facing a schedule with Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson and perhaps Miami or Clemson again in the ACC championship game. That would be a top-20 schedule, and they’ll have the leeway to lose at least one of those games and still get in. But using your mulligan in September is still ill-advised.

The Louisville defense proved its sturdiness against the run by stifling Georgia Tech last week; the Cardinals rank sixth in rushing success rate allowed and 14th in stuff rate. Their pass rush is aggressive and exciting, thanks mostly to outside linebacker Tramel Logan and tackle Jared Dawson, but if the QB gets the pass off, the Cardinals are vulnerable: They’re 107th in passing success rate allowed even with the sacks, and corner Quincy Riley is questionable Saturday with injury.

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard is progressing since a disastrous performance against NIU: He has gone 27-for-41 for 266 yards, a touchdown, only one sack and 248 non-sack rushing yards over the past two games. Backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have helped keep Leonard out of obvious passing situations, but that might be tougher against the Cardinals.

It also might be tough for the Irish to stop Louisville’s ground game. The Irish have been strangely inefficient up front, ranking just 98th in rushing success rate allowed. Even in blowout wins over Purdue and Miami (Ohio), the run defense was glitchy, and now comes a Louisville attack that ranks seventh in rushing success rate and fifth in yards per successful rush. Running back Maurice Turner is likely out with injury, but Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown are averaging 8.5 yards per carry between them.

The less Louisville has to pass, the better. Quarterback Tyler Shough is 15th in Total QBR, averaging 10.7 yards per dropback with eight touchdowns, no interceptions and only one sack. But despite a merely solid rush, the Notre Dame pass defense is elite. The Benjamin Morrison-Christian Gray cornerback duo is as good as anyone could have hoped, and the Irish rank third in passing success rate allowed and first in completion rate allowed.

Current line: Irish -6.5 (up from -4.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 6.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 6.9

Big 12 Elimination Week I

No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (noon, ESPN)

I opened this piece talking about how little has changed atop the AP poll. It’s a different story in the Big 12. The preseason media poll declared Utah the conference title favorite, and that remains the case, but after just seven conference games, basically everything else has already shifted.

The teams ranked second (Kansas State), third (Oklahoma State) and fourth (Kansas) in the preseason have all started 0-1 in conference play, and the team ranked fifth (Arizona), though technically 0-0, got blown out by Kansas State in “nonconference” play. SP+ now says that unbeaten Iowa State (sixth in the preseason poll) is the No. 2 favorite, followed closely by UCF (eighth). Even as someone who revels in the thought of Big 12 chaos, this is a lot to take in.

The winner of the early Saturday game in Manhattan, however, could ease back up to the No. 2 spot.

Both Oklahoma State and Kansas State are coming off of disappointing performances. OSU quarterback Alan Bowman found himself in hell — and briefly on the bench — against Utah’s defense, starting the game 8-for-22 with an interception. He led two late touchdown drives to turn a 22-3 deficit into a respectable 22-19 loss, but it was a loss all the same. K-State, meanwhile, imploded over the course of six minutes in Provo. Leading BYU 6-3 late in the first half, the Wildcats allowed a fumble return score, two short touchdown drives following interceptions and a 90-yard punt return. In 29 pass attempts, Avery Johnson managed to net just 121 yards and the two picks. The Wildcats won the yardage battle by 126 yards, but self-destruction cost them a game they didn’t expect to lose.

The matchups here are interesting. OSU basically wins the turnover and red zone battles and otherwise just tries to break even (unless or until running back Ollie Gordon II finally gets going). K-State, meanwhile, tries to ride out ground-game domination to paper over inconsistencies elsewhere. For now, at least, SP+ projects the Cowboys as a favorite in every game after this one, while the Wildcats are favored in all but one. Both teams could remain in the Big 12 title hunt, but the loser will have lost all margin for error.

Current line: K-State -5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 2.7 | FPI projection: OSU by 1.0

A huge week in the Group of 5 race

In the race for the Group of 5’s automatic CFP bid, unbeaten UNLV ranks awfully high, while Mountain West mates Fresno State (Michigan) and Boise State (Oregon) have each lost only to top-15 teams. Washington State can’t score the automatic bid because of its semi-independent status, but a 12-0 Cougars team with wins over Washington and some of the Mountain West Conference’s best might work its way pretty high up the CFP rankings as well.

Conveniently, these four teams are pairing off this week! Fresno State visits UNLV on Saturday afternoon, while Boise State hosts Wazzu late at night.

Fresno State at UNLV (3:30 p.m., FS1)

In the buildup to Bama-Georgia, somehow UNLV became the No. 1 off-the-field topic Wednesday, as quarterback Matthew Sluka announced he was leaving because of broken NIL promises and the school elected to stay in the Mountain West instead of joining what is essentially Mountain West+.

On the field, the Rebels, with a pair of power-conference wins, remain interesting too. The defense is led by an outstanding secondary, and while losing your starting quarterback obviously hurts, Sluka wasn’t setting an impossibly high bar. He’s an excellent runner, but potential replacement Hajj-Malik Williams, another FCS transfer, is decent in that regard, and both Williams and another backup, Cameron Friel, are more consistent passers. Plus, whoever’s at QB will still have the running back duo of Greg Burrell and Kylin James (6.2 yards per carry) next to him.

The matchups don’t appear great for Fresno State. Quarterback Mikey Keene has been interception-prone (not a great thing against a defense good at reeling in picks), and neither the Bulldogs’ run offense nor their run defense have really been up to snuff. Still, they’re the drama-free team at the moment; they were good enough to stress Michigan; and they’ve got the athleticism to score the slightest of upsets.

Current line: UNLV -2 (down from -3.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 2.6 | FPI projection: UNLV by 4.5

Washington State at No. 25 Boise State (10 p.m., FS1)

We’ve got major late-night track-meet potential in Boise. Wazzu and BSU have two of the most explosive offenses in the country and two of the best players of September: Cougs quarterback John Mateer and Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty.

It’s fair to guess that the game could turn on whoever has to pass more. Jeanty and backup Sire Gaines are phenomenal, but Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen ranks just 57th in Total QBR and 65th in yards per dropback — not terrible but not great. Washington State isn’t quite as devastating on the ground (30th in rushing success rate), and Mateer is all-or-nothing in the passing department, but those “alls” are huge: The receiving trio of Kris Hutson, Kyle Williams and Josh Meredith is catching just 54% of passes but averaging 18.0 yards per catch. Mateer is prone to explosions of both the good (19 completions and seven rushes of 20-plus yards) and disastrous (four interceptions, five sacks) varieties, while Madsen’s best trait is that he doesn’t screw up a drive.

Current line: Boise -7.5 | SP+ projection: Boise by 3.8 | FPI projection: Boise by 4.5

Week 5 chaos superfecta

Four superfectas, four upsets! Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. With James Madison’s destruction of North Carolina last week, we’re 4-for-4.

Our Week 5 superfecta is Big Ten-themed. Among Oregon (92% win probability over UCLA), Penn State (88% over Illinois), Michigan (77% over Minnesota) and USC (74% over Wisconsin), there’s only a 46% chance that all four ranked favorites win. SP+ obviously thinks the Badgers have the best chance of pulling an upset, but I’m certainly curious whether Illinois, with its sprightlier-than-normal offense and awesome secondary, can scare the Nittany Lions in State College.

Week 5 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami (7:30 p.m., ESPN). A month ago, this would have been a matchup of aspiring ACC contenders. Now Miami is the outright conference front-runner and Virginia Tech is reeling from a poor 2-2 start. There’s not much reason to think this could produce an upset, but if nothing else, Virginia Tech’s offense is at its best and most explosive when the Hokies are trailing — slow starts have been devastating for this team — and they’ll probably be trailing a decent amount here!

Current line: Miami -19.5 (up from -16.5) | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.8 | FPI projection: Miami by 20.2

Washington at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). Our first “Rutgers versus one of the West Coast teams” matchup of the Big Ten era is … surprisingly interesting? The Scarlet Knights are unbeaten and slightly favored, and Athan Kaliakmanis is piloting a solid version of the Kirk Ciarrocca, run-and-run-and-RPO offense, but the Huskies’ defense has been excellent in the first month of the Jedd Fisch era.

Current line: Rutgers -2.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.0 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 0.3

Early Saturday

Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss (noon, ABC). Kentucky has primarily won the ground battle but lost the air battle in 2024. Ole Miss currently ranks first in rushing success rate allowed on defense and first in passing success rate on offense. That seems like a pretty upset-unfriendly combination. Of course, per SP+, the Wildcats are the first top-80 team the Rebels have faced.

Current line: Rebels -17.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 20.0 | FPI projection: Rebels by 20.5

Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan (noon, Fox). First team to 17 points wins! Michigan doubled down on manball last week against USC, starting run-first (and almost run-only) quarterback Alex Orji and winning behind 233 combined rushing yards from Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. If nothing else, Minnesota is used to manball battles … but the Gophers got trounced by Iowa in one last week.

Current line: Michigan -9.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 12.0 | FPI projection: Michigan by 11.2

No. 22 BYU at Baylor (noon, FS1). BYU is unbeaten and playing its best defense in four years. Baylor is aggressive and athletic but reeling after a series of almost inexcusable defensive breakdowns wrecked an upset bid against Colorado. (Seriously, how do you let Shedeur Sanders find guys in one-on-one situations in two different Hail Mary-esque scenarios?) The metrics and sportsbooks don’t trust BYU just yet, but have the Bears recovered?

Current line: Baylor -3.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 0.02 | FPI projection: BYU by 0.7

Maryland at Indiana (noon, BTN). Has Indiana faced one of the easiest schedules in the country? Yes. Maryland is the first SP+ top-75 opponent on the docket. Have the Hoosiers still drastically exceeded projections and treated bad teams like awful teams? Also yes. They are oozing with confidence, though they’ll still have to slow down Maryland’s dangerous pitch-and-catch combo of Billy Edwards Jr. to Tai Felton.

Current line: IU -7 | SP+ projection: IU by 4.5 | FPI projection: IU by 6.5

Saturday afternoon

Colorado at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). The officially designated Ridiculous and Obnoxiously Fun Big 12 Game of the Week for Week 5. The winner of this one moves to 2-0 in conference play and holds onto “potential Big 12 contender” status — that’s doubly true if it’s UCF, whose upside is quite a bit higher than the Buffs’ — but I cannot contain how excited I am about the absurdity potential here. There’s a chance the Knights turn out to be too good, but Colorado does still have Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.

Current line: UCF -14.5 (up from -13.5) | SP+ projection: UCF by 12.3 | FPI projection: UCF by 14.1

Arkansas vs. No. 24 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). In the past three weeks, Arkansas has lost a game it really should have won at Oklahoma State and won a game that it probably should have lost at Auburn. Turnovers and big plays have made the Razorbacks one of the more volatile teams in the country. That’s not always fun if you’re a Razorbacks fan, but if you’re a casual fan, it makes for must-watch television, especially considering we’ve gotten a few Arkansas-A&M classics in Arlington over the past decade.

Current line: A&M -4 | SP+ projection: A&M by 4.1 | FPI projection: A&M by 2.2

Wisconsin at No. 13 USC (3:30 p.m., CBS). It’s quarterback Braedyn Locke’s first start for Wisconsin since Tyler Van Dyke’s season-ending injury, and it’s USC’s first game since the devastating late loss at Michigan. The Badgers might be able to piece together enough offensive efficiency to make this a game, but we haven’t seen a ton of evidence that Wisconsin’s defense has enough firepower to slow USC down. The winner of this one has new life heading into October. The loser is 2-2 and flailing.

Current line: USC -15.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 10.3 | FPI projection: USC by 18.2

No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn (3:40 p.m., ABC). Another one for the “new life vs. flailing” department. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. will make his first start for Oklahoma, but a QB change might make only so much of a difference given the Sooners’ lack of healthy receivers or an offensive line. Auburn, meanwhile, is doing quite a few things well on both sides of the ball but has lost 10 turnovers in two losses. By the way, Oklahoma leads the nation in takeaways.

Current line: OU -2 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 1.5 | FPI projection: OU by 2.7

Mississippi State at No. 1 Texas (4:15 p.m., SECN). Oklahoma made its SEC debut against an elite Tennessee team. Texas, meanwhile, drew the worst team in the conference. We don’t yet know whether Quinn Ewers will be healthy enough to start for the Horns, or whether it’s Arch Manning Time again, but it’s not going to matter. MSU lost its past two games to Toledo and Florida by a combined 41 points.

Current line: Horns -38.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 35.6 | FPI projection: Horns by 35.2

North Carolina at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). This past Saturday, North Carolina gave up 70 points to James Madison, and Mack Brown almost accidentally resigned. How on earth does a team respond to that, especially against a key rival? On paper, Duke has some slight advantages, but I would almost be surprised if the Tar Heels didn’t either overachieve or underachieve against projections by three touchdowns in this one.

Current line: Duke -2.5 (flipped from UNC -1.5) | SP+ projection: Duke by 3.7 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.6

Saturday evening

No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC). In a normal week, this one would have gotten marquee preview treatment. Instead, it’s relegated to the second screen behind Bama-Georgia. Still, despite the big point spread, it should be an interesting test for Penn State on both sides of the ball. The Illinois secondary is easily the best that QB Drew Allar has faced this season, and Luke Altmyer, receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, and the Illini attack are proving awfully dangerous.

Current line: PSU -18 | SP+ projection: PSU by 18.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9

Stanford at No. 17 Clemson (7 p.m., ESPN). Last Friday night, Stanford pulled an entertaining upset of Syracuse 2,800 miles away from home. Eight days later, the Cardinal will play 2,600 miles away in Death Valley East. They’re a unique out with mobile quarterback Ashton Daniels, receiver Elic Ayomanor and extremely willing fourth-down tendencies. But if the past two games are any indication, Clemson is not in the market for an upset loss at the moment. The Tigers have been devastating since their Week 1 defeat to Georgia.

Current line: Clemson -21.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 19.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 19.3

No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State (7 p.m., Peacock). The Michigan State offense isn’t yet ready for prime time, but the Spartans have the best defense Ohio State has faced to date. (Average defensive SP+ ranking of the Buckeyes’ first three opponents: 112.0.) Seeing how well Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard, backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, and the rest of the team handle a little extra resistance could make this one worth watching for a bit. But probably not for terribly long.

Current line: Buckeyes -24 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.0 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 23.2

South Alabama at No. 14 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). After a dreary 0-2 start, South Alabama erupted for wins over Northwestern State and Appalachian State by a combined 135-24. I’m not brave enough to predict an upset here or anything, but I would not recommend that LSU sleepwalk through the first 30-35 minutes of this one as the Tigers have the past three weeks. USA backs Fluff Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock are a scary duo, and LSU’s defense still hasn’t found fifth gear.

Current line: LSU -22 (up from -20.5) | SP+ projection: LSU by 18.7 | FPI projection: LSU by 11.9

Florida State at SMU (8 p.m., ACCN). A month ago, this one felt as if it would be an interesting road test for the ACC’s obvious front-runner (FSU) against a league newbie and potential dark horse. Now it’s a game between a 1-3 FSU team with a completely broken offense and an SMU team that either drastically overachieves or underachieves every week. I guess SMU is still technically a dark horse with a win Saturday night, though.

Current line: SMU -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: SMU by 6.8 | FPI projection: SMU by 8.4

Late Saturday

Arizona at No. 10 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah is the Big 12’s early front-runner thanks to what appears to be its nastiest defense in years. The Utes are comfortably favored even with perpetually injured quarterback Cam Rising’s status remaining questionable. But this game might be more about Arizona: The Wildcats have underachieved terribly this season, but they’re 0-0 in conference play. It’s not too late for them to assert themselves if they’re capable. Injuries aren’t helping, though.

Current line: Utah -11 (up from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.2 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.4

No. 8 Oregon at UCLA (11 p.m., Fox). Oregon followed two disappointing performances with a great one against Oregon State; the Ducks could be ready to play at a top-10 level, but they probably won’t need elite play to beat a UCLA team that has already managed to fall from the 30s into the 70s in SP+ in just three games. Per SP+, the Bruins now have a far better chance of going 1-11 (11.1%) than bowling (1.4%). Yikes.

Current line: Ducks -25.5 (up from -24) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 22.3 | FPI projection: Ducks by 19.0

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 17 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). It’s hard to stand out when you’re in a conference with South Dakota State and North Dakota State, but South Dakota is a legitimate top-five-level team, having lost only to Wisconsin, by 14 points. It’s possible that only SDSU has a better FCS defense than the Coyotes, who get disruption from end Nick Gaes and lots of others. SIU, meanwhile, is still a top-25-level team, but at 2-2, the Salukis need an upset to get back on a playoff track. SP+ projection: South Dakota by 11.6.

Division II: No. 20 Henderson State at No. 1 Harding (8 p.m., local streaming). It’s a big week at the Division II level, where the top two teams each host ranked teams — in addition to this game, No. 2 Grand Valley State hosts No. 21 West Florida (and No. 3 Valdosta State was supposed to welcome No. 17 West Alabama, but the game was postponed because of Hurricane Helene). GVSU-UWF has a closer projection, but I’m recommending this one, mainly because Harding is just a wrecking ball right now. The Bisons have outscored their first three opponents by a combined 181-10. Winning the national title last year seems to have taken them to a completely different level. SP+ currently rates them better than 13 FBS teams! SP+ projection: Harding by 18.5.

FCS: No. 4 Idaho at No. 11 UC Davis (10 p.m., ESPN+). Another week, another marquee game for Idaho. The Vandals loaded their schedule with two FBS opponents, a ranked-at-the-time Albany team and, last week, an Abilene Christian team that nearly came back from 24 down. Now it’s time to start Big Sky play. Led by former Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough, UC Davis is unbeaten against FCS teams and frustrated Cal in the season opener. There are going to be so many fun, tight Big Sky games in the coming weeks. SP+ projection: Idaho by 1.1.