Dylan Cease has been in baseball news lately. Cease defeated the bottom-ranked Washington Nationals with a no-hitter on July 25, the second no-hitter in Padres history. But what about the man who threw the Padres’ other no-hitter a few years ago?

That would be none other than Joe Musgrove. Musgrove will likely slot in as the SP2 in a Padres rotation that has some decent, if not average, names in it. Matt Waldron is a nice knuckleballer, and Michael King has been more than useful this year since coming over from the Yankees.

Musgrove has been sidelined since June 1 with elbow inflammation. This is a concerning injury to a pitcher’s throwing arm, but the outcome of these injuries has been highly variable in recent years. Managers would be wise to monitor Musgrove’s potential return, which is discussed further below.

Be sure to check out all of our fantasy baseball lineup resources and weekly lineup resources:

Joe Musgrove Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball

Musgrove will pitch two innings on July 30 at the team’s facility in Peoria, Arizona. If this goes well, the next logical step would be a rehab assignment. Perhaps he’ll have another bullpen-style session, but either way, he’s moving toward a return, barring a setback.

Now that we’ve been out for over two months, you have to imagine that Musgrove has at least a few rehab starts coming up. Assuming about one rehab start per week, Musgrove is on track to return no earlier than the third week of August.

For managers with multiple open IL spots, Musgrove is a smart addition based on that timeline. Giving him an IL spot for 2-3 weeks with the upside he can bring upon his return is well worth it. Those without IL spots will need to keep reporting for his return, which is certainly on track for August at this point.

Joe Musgrove’s Fantasy Baseball Prospects

Musgrove logged 49 1/3 IP before being shelved in 2024, which is right on the borderline of a large enough sample size to really draw conclusions from peripheral stats. Plus, elbow inflammation is an injury that can creep up on him, so you have to wonder if his April and May performances were hampered by a developing injury. His fastball velocity was slightly down before his injury, sitting at 92.4 mph from 93.1 mph in 2023.

For what it’s worth, Musgrove had a whopping 5.66 ERA in 10 starts in April and May of this year. His 5.34 FIP wasn’t much better, but that’s hard to correct with a glaringly different 4.29 xFIP. Managers should consider whether these numbers are meaningful in such a small number of innings. Perhaps he’ll switch back to his slider more often, which has historically been a successful pitch for him.

Padres SP Joe Musgrove Slider usage will hit an all-time low of 8.8% in 2024.

A bit strange, since the pitch yielded the following:

144 Stuff+ (3rd best in MLB)
.203 xSlug, .231 wOBA, 14.3% HH%

—>All 1st in his arsenal of pitches.

Was happy to see him throw it 29 times against TOR yesterday photo.twitter.com/403pXtLlqP

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) April 22, 2024

What stands out is a .348 BABIP in those 10 starts. That’s an unsustainable number for hitters, and Musgrove’s career average is .294. He’ll need to work on the ugly 19.2% HR/FB he had before his injury this year, but Musgrove figures to pitch much better in his return. At this point, managers should give him the benefit of the doubt that those ugly stats were due to an impending injury to his pitching arm.

Download our free mobile app for news and alerts

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24×7 player news, injury reports, sleepers, prospects and more. All for free!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis