The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons played Thursday night in what was the best game of the 2024 season in both real and fantasy football. The Falcons erased a late deficit, sent the game to overtime and ultimately won 36-30 in overtime. The two teams combined for 883 yards and scored a wealth of fantasy points.

Kirk Cousins ​​threw for a career-high 509 yards (he averaged 216 passing yards in his first four games), threw 4 touchdown passes and scored 34.4 points. Baker Mayfield, one of the best fantasy quarterbacks this season, threw for three scores and recorded 23.4 points.

The Falcons’ top two wide receivers, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, combined for 21 catches for 259 yards with three touchdowns. London scored 33.4 points and Mooney had 31.5 points. The Buccaneers also saw Mike Evans score twice and record 23.2 points.

Heck, even Kyle Pitts, who scored zero fantasy points last week, had 15.8 points.

Unfortunately, even when fantasy points were being handed out like candy on Halloween, Bijan Robinson wasn’t part of the excitement. While he averaged a solid 5.1 yards per rush, he was held to just 12 carries, 77 total yards and 10.7 points. That has continued what must be a troubling trend for the second year in a row…his numbers just aren’t great.

Despite being the third overall pick in fantasy drafts (ADP 4.7 overall), he is averaging 13.5 fantasy points after five weeks. Currently, that makes him the RB22 behind Zack Moss, JK Dobbins, Chuba Hubbard and Brian Robinson Jr.

When you consider where Robinson was picked and the fact that the top runners average over 20 points per game, it’s safe to say Robinson is headed to that not-so-pretty place we like to call “Bustville.”

What went wrong with Robinson?

Despite averaging 47.8 snaps per game, he ranks 20th in touches per game (17.0), and is 20th in fantasy points per touch among runners with at least 50 touches (0.80). The top defenders, like Saquan Barkley and Alvin Kamara, are averaging more than a full point per touch.

There is more bad news.

According to NextGenStats, Robinson ranks 32nd in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expected. He ranks 65th in Rush Expected Points Added. He ranks 35th in both yards after contact per rush and rush success rate. We can’t blame the defense stacking the box against Robinson for his lack of production either, as he ranks 30th among running backs in Stacked Box Rate.

The elephant in the room is of course the presence of Tyler Allgeier. A former 1,000-meter runner, he is part of the reason Robinson failed to reach elite status this season due to his role in the team’s backfield. After five weeks, Robinson is seeing 37.4% of the Falcons’ backfield touches.

For comparison, let’s take a look at the current top five fantasy running backs and their usage.

Kamara has seen 46.2% of New Orleans’ backfield touches. Barkley is at 40.5% in Philadelphia. Derrick Henry is at 40.3% in Baltimore. Kyren Williams is at 46.7% in Los Angeles, and Jordan Mason is at 45.5% for the 49ers. Of these five backfields, the Ravens are the only team with another back who has seen more than 6% of the touches (Justice Hill – 14.2%).

Meanwhile, Allgeier has seen 17.2% of Atlanta’s backfield touches. He’s also seen seven of the team’s 17 red zone looks, meaning Robinson isn’t guaranteed to get those crucial goal-line carries.

What may surprise you is that Allgeier’s totals in these categories are significant down compared to the first five games of last season. In that time, he had a 27% backfield share and 11 red zone looks. Robinson was at 34.9% and eight respectively.

So the Falcons’ new coaching regime has given Robinson a bigger role than he saw at this time last season. The problem? He still isn’t seeing enough touches on offense, and he hasn’t been very effective with the touches he’s gotten so far. The above statistics tell the story.

I know this isn’t the kind of thing fantasy managers who put a high first-round pick on him want to hear, but if these kinds of stats and trends continue, it’s very unlikely that Robinson will be worth his average draft position (ADP) are. . So if you’re so inclined and can still get a good trade value for him, it might be time to think about getting off the Bijan bandwagon now.