It was pretty much all or nothing in the ALDS between the Guardians and Tigers.

Cleveland was the first to draw blood with a 7-0 shutout in Game 1, but then the Tigers returned the favor with back-to-back 3-0 shutouts to take a 2-1 series lead.

According to the Associated Press, the last time a playoff series started with three consecutive shutouts was in 1905. Cleveland has now gone 20 consecutive innings without scoring a run.

While the situation looks bleak for the Guardians, I’ll talk about why they provide value in Game 4 with their backs against the wall on Thursday.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds

The guards’ prospects

Tanner Bibee will make his second start of the series after getting the nod in Game 1. Despite having a 5-0 lead leaving the game, Bibee did not throw deep enough to qualify for the win.

It’s not that he threw poorly. Manager Stephen Vogt simply decided to hand the game over to his bullpen after Detroit’s Parker Meadows reached base with a single in the fifth inning.

In 4 ⅔ innings of work, Bibee threw 76 pitches, scattered four hits and finished with six strikeouts.

Perhaps Vogt was already thinking ahead for later in the series by keeping his right-hander fresh and not exhausting his pitch count.

The Guardians already have a lot of confidence in the California native after naming him their starter for Game 1. After all, Bibee posted a respectable ERA of 3.47 with an FIP of 3.56. He also led Cleveland pitchers with a Wins Above Replacement rating of 3.3.

In his last three outings against the Tigers (15 ⅔ innings), he has given up just three runs.

Tigers prospects

There are bound to be narrow margins in this series as neither team has swung a hot bat. As a result, it’s hard to get too excited about the Tigers in this spot.

Detroit is just one game away from the ALCS, despite Tarik Skubal (6.3) being the only starting pitcher with a WAR value above 1.2. It’s been a bit of smoke and mirrors on how the Tigers got these wins.

Manager AJ Hinch, a former catcher, is known for his creativity and ability to manage pitchers. He has been able to push all the right buttons by mixing and matching his bullpen arms.

Game 4 will likely be the third time he will use his “pitching chaos” in this series, with an opener and bulk reliever strategy.

Detroit is essentially shooting a free throw, with Skubal lining up to throw Game 5, if necessary. So there’s a chance the Tigers are getting a little complacent with their ace and Cy Young favorite waiting in the wings.

You’d have to think the Guardians will find a way to score at least one run and avoid a third straight shutout. If they are successful, it could open the floodgates to force a Game 5.

Guardians vs. Tigers pick

If Cleveland had managed to score a point in the midst of a loss in Game 3, I’d probably make a case for the Tigers to close out the series in front of their fans on Thursday night.

However, with this scoreless skid still looming, the Guardians are in such a unique spot that they now offer more value.

Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting

Historically, MLB favorites are 104-46 (69.3%) on the moneyline after back-to-back shutouts. If we adjust our parameters to include only shortcut favorites of -130 or lower, their performance improves to 29-7 (80.6%), and this angle currently sits at 7-0.

We only need to play -120 with Cleveland at BetMGM, which is well within our reach to justify a play on the visitors.

Best Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-120, BetMGM)

Why trust New York Post betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has cashed two 15-leg teasers in his gambling career, as well as a 12-leg parlay, including eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he carefully chose the finalists of the 2024 European Championships and the Copa America.