Week 1 of the 2024 American football season features a Sunday night primetime game between the #23 USC Trojans and #13 LSU Tigers at 7:30 PM ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Both teams are replacing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, as Garrett Nussmeier joins LSU to replace 2023 winner Jayden Daniels and Miller Moss fills the shoes of 2022 winner Caleb Williams with the Trojans. USC begins its first season in the Big Ten Conference, while LSU opens action in a 16-team SEC.

These two famous teams have met only twice in their history, and not since 1984. They kick off with a neutral-site match at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Odds are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Distribution: LSU (-4)
Moneyline: LSU (-185), USC (+155)
Over/Under: 64.5

Spread first half: LSU -2.5 (-120), USC +2.5 (tie)
Total points LSU: More than 34.5 (-115), less than 34.5 (-115)
USC total points: More than 29.5 (-120), less than 29.5 (-110)

Choice of the game: USC +4 vs LSU

With two programs with new quarterbacks, who can we bettors trust more? I’m going with the Trojans and Miller Moss. Moss has a lot of college experience, having been a backup for a couple of years and making a start in the Holiday Bowl where he threw for six touchdowns on 372 passing yards. Moss is a good fit for USC’s potent offense. More than that, I trust USC head coach Lincoln Riley. One of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, Riley has designed a system to maximize quarterback performance through a spread offense that encourages aggressive downfield passing and quick reads.

Similar things could be said about LSU and head coach Brian Kelly. The problem for me, however, is that LSU no longer has the offensive catalyst that is Jayden Daniels. Daniels wasn’t just a dynamic dual-threat quarterback; he was the man. More than exceptional, he set an LSU record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a season (1,134) while producing game-changing performances, including a historic game against Florida in which he threw for 606 total yards, setting an SEC record. Daniels had qualities that are difficult to replace.

While Garrett Nussmeier shows promise, this transition period could pose more challenges for LSU’s offense as they adjust to a new leader. Additionally, the game will be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas, which mitigates the home-field advantage that SEC teams like LSU typically enjoy. Take the four points with USC.

Betting trends

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information

• These were two of the top three teams to reach the over-score last season, and the top two teams from the power conference.

• University of Twente: 1-10 ATS in neutral-site games since 2014, worst in FBS over span

• LSU: 1-5 ATS in neutral site games since 2020, third worst in FBS over the entire period

More from ESPN