The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game rematch. The current score stands at 46.5.

Odds are current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Distribution: Leaders (-3)
Moneyline: Chiefs (-150), Ravens (+130)
Over/under: 46.5

Spread first half: Chiefs -2.5 (+115), Ravens +2.5 (-145)
Total points Chiefs: more than 24.5 (Even), below 24.5 (-130)
Total points Ravens: more than 21.5 (-115), below 21.5 (-115)

The props

Passing yards

• Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: more than 269.5 (-115), less than 269.5 (-115)

• Lamar Jackson total passing yards: more than 221.5 (-115), below 221.5 (-115)

Passing Touchdowns

• Mahomes’ total passing touchdowns: more than 1.5 (-180), below 1.5 (+145)

• Jackson’s total passing touchdowns: more than 1.5 (+135), less than 1.5 (-170)

Running yards

• Total rushing yards by Isiah Pacheco: above 58.5 (-115), below 58.5 (-115)

• Derrick Henry total rushing yards: above 63.5 (-115), below 63.5 (-115)

• Jackson’s Total Rushing Yards: more than 47.5 (-110), below 47.5 (-120)

• Mahomes’ total rushing yards: more than 20.5 (-110), less than 20.5 (-120)

Yards Received

• Travis Kelce total receiving yards: more than 57.5 (-120), less than 57.5 (-110)

• Zay Flowers total receiving yards: more than 52.5 (-115), less than 52.5 (-115)

• Mark Andrews Total Receiving Yards: more than 48.5 (-115), less than 48.5 (-115)

• Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: more than 28.5 (-120), less than 28.5 (-110)

Game choice: under 46.5

While this matchup features two of the league’s most explosive offenses, I have my eye on the under 46.5 for Thursday night primarily because of the formidable defenses that will be on display. Both defenses are elite, with the Ravens and Chiefs being the two highest-scoring defenses last season.

The Ravens led the NFL in sacks and takeaways, while Baltimore’s secondary features one of the league’s best safeties in Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton, along with cornerback Marlon Humphrey, can effectively disguise coverages, forcing Mahomes to hold onto the ball longer and increasing the likelihood of sacks or rushed throws.

The Chiefs’ defensive strength is the pass rush, led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who combined for an impressive 21 sacks last season. Baltimore’s offensive line could be a potential weakness in 2024, with questions surrounding the inexperience of new players. The Ravens return just two starters, which could impact pass protection.

Kansas City’s receivers also remain a question mark. While the Chiefs added speedster Xavier Worthy in the draft, he’s still an unproven rookie. In the meantime, Jackson will operate behind the younger talent and with a new running back in Derrick Henry. Henry should help with ball control, but it could take some time for the offense to really get going.

The Ravens’ ability to limit big plays and force short passes, combined with the Chiefs’ pass rush potentially exploiting Baltimore’s inexperienced offensive line, could keep the scoring in check. Those factors, along with both teams making offensive adjustments, point to keeping the total under 46.5 for the season opener. –Pamela Maldonado

Betting trends

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Info

• Jackson is 12-1-1 ATS in his career as a regular-season underdog, the best record of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum five starts). He is 10-4 outright, the best record of any quarterback with at least six starts as an underdog.

• Jackson has a career regular season record of 25-11-2 ATS away from home.

• The Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1 under John Harbaugh (7-1 ATS past eight seasons), the second-best mark by a head coach in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games (Tom Flores, 10-2).

• The reigning Super Bowl champions are 0-3 ATS in Week 1 over the past three seasons with back-to-back outright losses. They were 13-4-3 ATS over the previous 20 seasons.

• The Ravens finished 13-4 last season. The last 13-win team that was at least a 3-point underdog in Week 1 the following season was the 2013 Falcons (+3.5 at Saints, losing by 6).

• The Ravens were 11-6 ATS last season, averaging 8.2 points per game in coverage. It was the second-highest average coverage margin in the past decade, trailing only the 2019 Ravens (10.3 PPG).

• The unders were 11-6 in Chiefs games last season (13-8 including playoffs).

• The primetime unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons (35-23 last season).

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