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    • WNBA Standings: Will Chicago Sky Slip Out of Playoff Contention?
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    WNBA Standings: Will Chicago Sky Slip Out of Playoff Contention?

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    After focusing on the top half of the playoff bracket last week, it’s time to take a look at a surprisingly lively race for the eighth seed. With about two weeks left in the regular season, seven playoff teams are essentially set, though the matchups have not yet been determined.

    There’s drama at the bottom of the postseason bracket. Chicago has been in a tailspin since the Olympic break, giving up a comfortable lead on the lottery teams. The Sky have lost six straight games, suffering from the absence of Chennedy Carter (ill) and already without Marina Mabrey due to a pre-deadline trade. Chicago is still in 8th place thanks to a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker against Atlanta; however, a Sept. 17 showdown against the Dream is coming up. The Sky have no real reason to lose the playoffs since they don’t own their first-round pick, but they do have a trade with Dallas. If the Wings look like they’ll end up outside of the top eight as well, missing the postseason would ensure that Chicago at least gets a lottery pick, even if it’s not the best selection.

    Atlanta appears to be the favorite to make the postseason. The Dream have the fifth-best net rating in the league since the Olympic break, tied with the Sky. They also got a gift in the form of Natasha Cloud’s suspension for technical fouls against the Mercury, making them more likely to steal a win in Phoenix to end their West Coast road trip. Atlanta also doesn’t have a first-round pick in the upcoming draft, so they have every incentive to push for the postseason.

    A week ago, it seemed like there were only two teams in contention for this final playoff spot. But recent wins by the Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics added to the intrigue. Dallas had won three in a row — including back-to-back wins over Las Vegas and Minnesota — before falling to Indiana on Sunday. Still, the Wings are just two games out of the final playoff spot, with their next three games against the Mystics, Dream and Sky, giving Dallas a chance to make up ground quickly. The Wings also have the most talent of any team chasing the playoffs and the best chance to win postseason games if they get there.

    Washington is also on a recent three-game winning streak and hasn’t really regressed since the firing of Myisha Hines-Allen. The Mystics have four games left against the other three teams in this field, and their recent play suggests they’re probably closer to a .500 team than the one that started the season 0-12.

    The race for eight isn’t nearly as important as how the top favorites develop, since most of these teams aren’t really capable of taking on the New York Liberty in a three-game playoff series, but it’s always valuable to see how players respond to match pressure and higher stakes. Even if younger teams like the Sky and Mystics don’t advance to the playoffs, just being in the race is a valuable experience. The games are still important.

    Three notable achievements

    1. White T A’ja Wilson is absolutely terrifying

    The two-time MVP and reigning two-time Defensive Player of the Year has also become known over the years for her tunnel fits, which she excels in just as much off the court as she does on it. But recently, Wilson has taken a simpler approach, showing up to games in a plain white T-shirt and sweatpants before changing into her Aces uniform. As she told the Las Vegas Review-Journal , “I have to want to put clothes on. Right now, where I’m at, I don’t feel like I deserve to put (nicer) clothes on.”

    No matter what Wilson brings to a game, the defense has no chance of stopping her. On Sunday against Phoenix — an opponent that featured Brittney Griner but little other forward depth — Wilson scored 41 points on 16 of 23 shooting, added 17 rebounds, one block and no turnovers in an 18-point road game. Wilson became the first player in WNBA history to record 40 points and 17 rebounds in a single game, and she tied Breanna Stewart and Diana Taurasi for the most 40-point games ever. As a reminder, Wilson is only 28.

    Through 32 games this season, Wilson has 42 turnovers, which is incomprehensible. She’s had to create more of her offense than usual to start the year without Chelsea Gray and is still navigating double teams on a regular basis. She’s operating on a live dribble, given how often she’s up to score, rather than with her back to the basket. Turnovers should be the price of doing business for such a high-volume scorer (the highest in league history so far, if her average holds up the rest of the season), and she still leads the WNBA in turnover percentage (5.5), more than two percentage points ahead of second-place Kayla Thornton.

    The Aces were 3-4 since the Olympic break (19-12 overall) when Wilson made that statement. That record may have made Wilson feel like she wasn’t performing up to her potential — and why I argued last week that she wasn’t the no-brainer MVP — but it’s still worth acknowledging how ridiculous her individual performance has been. None other than Taurasi called Wilson’s season “unthinkable.” Wilson is already one of the greatest players of all time and continues to get better.

    2. Satou Sabally’s 3-pointer is a difference maker

    The first thing that stood out when Sabally returned to the German national team was how comfortable she was on pull-up 3-pointers. The long ball has historically been the difference between good and great seasons for Sabally. If she shoots above 30 percent (which isn’t even league average) from distance, she’s an All-Star.

    Sabally is currently making 48.8 percent of her triples, including nine during the Wings’ recent three-game winning streak. Dallas forces Sabally to the perimeter more often than European teams on offense because of the Wings’ abundance of frontcourt players, but Sabally has turned that into a winning proposition. While she’s taken nearly as many midrange jumpers (23) as she has taken shots in the restricted area (24), her efficiency hasn’t wavered. Her effective field-goal percentage is a career-best 55.6 (though seven games, admittedly), and Dallas is back from the dead after a terrible start to the season.

    Sabally would do well to move more of her shots from beyond the arc. In the loss to Indiana, she made 4 of 9 3-pointers but just 2 of 7 2-pointers, as she shared the court with two other bigs the entire game. The Wings’ defense is still terrible, even though they’ve strung together a few wins, so they need to continue putting up big points. More 3s from Sabally, especially when she’s shooting the ball this well, could be part of the recipe. It would also save the oft-injured star from taking a beating in the paint, as Dallas needs her on the court as much as possible to close out the regular season.

    3. The best backcourt in the competition?

    The superlatives keep coming for Caitlin Clark, but her backcourt partner Kelsey Mitchell has been no less impressive during Indiana’s rise. Mitchell is the WNBA’s second-leading scorer since the Olympic break (she’s ninth all season), while shooting 50 percent of the team’s total scoring, 40 percent of its 3-pointers and 90 percent of its free throws. Give her a break, as Sabally did when she and Arike Ogunbowale miscommunicated on a substitution on Sunday, and Mitchell will step up without hesitation. She and Clark have an easy chemistry on backdoor cuts, as Mitchell is one of the quickest guards in the game, especially when her defender turns her head. Indiana’s transition offense has been effective, with Mitchell running the floor and Clark hitting her with outlet passes.

    Against Dallas, the two combined for 64 points and 15 assists. To be fair, the Wings’ defense creates some inflated offensive totals, but the ease with which Mitchell and Clark created offensively was something to behold.

    It begs the question of whether the Fever already have the best backcourt in the WNBA. Neither Clark nor Mitchell is an ace defender, but they don’t really need to be when they’re scoring at this rate. Perimeter players for New York and Las Vegas will have their say in the postseason, but for now, the fact that Clark and Mitchell have already entered the conversation is a win for Indiana.

    (Between Wilson and Mitchell, it was quite a moment for the 2018 draft class. Even beyond those top two picks, Gabby Williams, Jordin Canada, Hines-Allen, Ariel Atkins and Monique Billings could all play meaningful roles in the final stretch of the 2024 season.)

    Rookie of the week

    Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky

    Cardoso had been in a bit of a slump, taking four shots in each of the Sky’s losses to Washington and Indiana last week. She responded with the best game of her young career against Minnesota (albeit another loss). Part of the change has been how she’s been used on offense. The Sky typically throw the ball directly to Cardoso in the post; since she’s 6’1”, runs the floor well, and works hard to lock down her defender, this is the most efficient way to get Cardoso involved. But it’s also predictable and allows defenses to come in and help. Even a team like the Lynx, which isn’t particularly tall, can send a second defender to stymie Cardoso at the rim.

    What was nice about Cardoso’s performance against Minnesota was that she ran a couple of pick-and-rolls with Lindsey Allen, and Allen delivered a couple of pinpoint pocket passes that gave Cardoso open looks inside. Chicago’s spacing isn’t always good enough to allow for clean entry passes into the paint, but when Cardoso leaves the lane to set a screen, it creates some daylight inside. Cardoso isn’t the most versatile big on the offensive end, but she can definitely do more than just catch lobs over the top. The Sky should use these opportunities to expand her scoring skillset, especially with a roster that doesn’t have much offensive pop.

    Game to circle

    Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty, Sunday 4:00 p.m. (ET)

    This is the final regular-season meeting between the 2023 WNBA finalists, and thus the Aces’ last chance to prove that the Liberty hasn’t passed them by. Just because Las Vegas gets swept in the regular season doesn’t mean the script can’t be flipped in the playoffs. In 2020, for example, the Storm lost both regular-season games to the Aces but went on to sweep them in the Finals. But another loss certainly wouldn’t bode well, especially with Las Vegas at full strength.

    (Photo of Angel Reese: Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

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