Only the Minnesota Lynx (10) have won more WNBA games since the All-Star/Olympic break than the Indiana Fever (eight).

After a terrible 1-8 start, Indiana is now 19-17 and has the sixth seed for the upcoming play-offs.

Indiana has shown it can beat the best teams in the league on any given day, with wins over Minnesota, New York and Connecticut.

On Wednesday evening, Fever Las Vegas hopes to add it to that list.

The Aces won each of the previous two meetings at home, comfortably covering both points differentials.

The last time the teams played each other, Vegas were 13-point favorites, but now they trail by just two points on foreign soil.

While there’s a chance the bookmakers have dramatically increased Indiana’s power rating, the status of A’ja Wilson’s right ankle might be a better explanation for the point spread.

The two-time MVP missed her first game in three years and against the Fever it will come down to the last minute whether she wins her game.

Given her uncertainty, it will likely be early in the game, in the first quarter, if the Aces show any vulnerability.

Chances Aces vs. Fever

Las Vegas Aces Outlook

Las Vegas has dropped about 10 points in net rating (15.3 to 5.5) from last season.

There has been a notable shift within the league, as the top four defensive teams have allowed between 94.5 and 95.8 points per 100 possessions, compared to 2023 when the top four had ratings ranging from 97.7 to 100.0.

Las Vegas was the team that led the league in defensive efficiency last year, but now it’s not even in the top four.

With defenses improving across the league, Las Vegas is no longer scoring as well as it used to and can no longer keep pace with the better defensive teams.

Indiana (103.8) has become electric on offense, trailing only Liberty (106.7) and Aces (105.6) in efficiency.

However, when the Fever plays at home, their offensive rating jumps to 106.2, which is the second-best mark in the W.

Indiana Fever Outlook

While there was much criticism of the Fever’s start, opponents often failed to mention the tough schedule the team faced.

Indiana played seven games against the Sun, Liberty, Storm and Aces to open the season.

It was quite a learning process for the Fever’s rookie point guard Caitlin Clark, who had to get used to the physical conditions of the league.

Still, those early struggles may have been the best way for Clark to develop and earn respect around the league.

There’s no way anyone can deny her qualities anymore, considering all the WNBA records she broke or tied in her rookie year:

• Most assists in a WNBA game (19)
• Most assists by a rookie in an All-Star game (10)
• Fastest player to reach 400 points and 200 assists
• First rookie to record a triple-double
• Three-pointers in one season by a rookie

With four games left in the regular season, Clark can add to her legacy as she remains 52 points shy of breaking the rookie scoring record (744 points) set by Seimone Augustus in 2006.

Clark’s menace from the perimeter and her ability to create easy scoring opportunities for her teammates has led to Indiana having the league’s highest effective field goal percentage (52.1%).

Aces vs. Fever Picks

Every time Clark steps onto the court, there’s a buzz, and that excitement is even greater for her home fans inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

The Aces made fools of the Fever in their two home games, but Indiana is a very different team than the one they faced earlier this season.

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Through the first quarter, Indiana is in 10th place with a Net Rating of -7.1, but at home that number jumps to +7.5 with an Offensive Efficiency of 109.2, which puts them in second place behind New York.

When Indiana lost both games against the Aces, it led by four points after the first quarter in one game and trailed by only two points in the other.

The real question is whether Indiana can play four good quarters against Las Vegas.

Still, there’s a good chance Indiana will start quickly, especially if Wilson doesn’t play.

Best guess: Fever Q1 Moneyline (+104, FanDuel)