This article was produced in collaboration with Cover 1a leading voice in making the complexities of Buffalo Bills football digestible. Be sure to subscribe to their YouTube channel And podcast feeds.

When the Buffalo Bills take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night to close out Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, they’ll have a chance to jump-start Dalton Kincaid’s surprisingly slow start to the new campaign. It feels like cheating to say that a player many expected to lead the Bills in targets is an X Factor, a relative unknown who helps shape the outcome of the game, but with just five receptions thus far, an exception will be made for the tight end in his second year.

Kincaid’s goal projections universally exceeded 100 entering the new year, with some even reaching 120+, but two weeks later Kincaid is averaging 3.0 goals per game. To reach 100 goals at that pace, he’ll need just over 31 more games. There’s no math genius on this keyboard, but 31 games just doesn’t fit into a 17-game schedule. So, is there reason for hope?

The easy answer is yes. It’s easy because two games is an insanely small sample size, and Kincaid’s week-to-week performance can grow substantially from the first two weeks based on a wide variety of factors. One of those factors is how opposing defenses focus on Kincaid. There were numerous times in Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals where Kincaid drew the attention of three defenders. There were even a couple of plays where four DBs collapsed on the talented pass-catcher. These weren’t insane defensive designs to exclude Kincaid, but he was clearly an emphasis for the Cardinals’ defenses, and they always had their eyes on him and recognized his importance to the Bills’ offense.

Teams aren’t going to play Kincaid that way every week, especially if the Bills’ run game starts to dominate opponents. Some people complain about Joe Brady’s increased run usage, but as the Bills continue to win with that formula, teams will be forced to devote more resources to stopping the ground game. That usually means going back to a base defense with at least three linebackers. That personnel should free up more space for the Bills to attack the middle of the field with the pass. Forcing defenses to choose between defending an effective run game and an effective passing game is the point of building a multi-dimensional offense like the Bills and Brandon Beane have been pursuing for years.

Defenses that are better against the run than Kincaid and the passing game could start this week. Jacksonville’s pass coverage is led by their safeties, Antonio Johnson and Andre Cisco. They’re solid, if not overly familiar. The Jags are missing their best cover corner with Tyson Campbell’s injury, and while former Bill Ronald Darby is a legitimate NFL cornerback, there are places to attack their coverage outside of those positions. For example, look for the Bills to try to play Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir against Jacksonville nickel back Jarrian Jones, who has struggled against quicker, faster receivers so far this season.

Related: How a Bills win or loss in Week 3 would affect the AFC East standings

Finding the opponent’s weaknesses brings us to the Jaguars’ linebackers in coverage. Devin Lloyd has fared well in limited testing in 2024, but his career in pass coverage suggests he should be targeted more often. Foyesade Oluokun is a reliable run defender, but in his seven-year career he’s allowed an 80.5% completion rate for 9.5 ypc. It’s possible the Jags have turned these two into great pass defenders, but the Bills should give them more time to prove it before exploring other areas.

Even if the Jaguars aren’t particularly weak in pass coverage, Kincaid could still begin his march toward a breakout season based on talent alone. Despite his slow start, there are stats that reveal his potential.

Kincaid’s 46 yards after contact is a crazy number considering he has just five catches this season, meaning he’s averaging 9.2 yards after contact PER CATCH. Kincaid showed in his rookie year that he has a knack for space and exceptional field awareness to complement his toughness and ability to consistently outpace the yards expected. Kincaid routinely finds a way to charge forward for an extra two yards or stick his shoulder and blade between multiple defenders to steal an extra yard.

Finally, Kincaid is capable of having a 10-target game at any given time because Josh Allen takes care of his guys. The team and Allen know that Kincaid is hyper-talented, a crucial part of their preseason success, and should be averaging more than three targets per game. Allen has repeatedly fed receivers, most often Stefon Diggs, when he knows a player deserved more attention. While that may have been a squeaky-wheel reaction from some players, it’s also a demonstration of Allen’s leadership in making his teammates feel connected and involved.

Kincaid may be a household name for Bills Mafia, but his first two weeks have been disappointing. Don’t be surprised if he breaks through on Monday night, though.

Betting Market Line, Kincaid’s Receiving Yards: 38.5, O -115, U-115*

X Factor predicted line: 8 Tgts, 6 rec, 65+ yds

*Betting data is included for comparison purposes only

— Enjoy free coverage of the Buffalo Bills on SI —