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Where will fuboTV stock be in 5 years?
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Where will fuboTV stock be in 5 years?

On the surface streaming tv outfit fuboTV (NYSE: FUBO) seems like a winner. Conventional cable TV is expensive, but streaming the same programming over a broadband connection is a more affordable alternative.

Each of Fubo’s pricing plans also offers access to more sports channels than you would normally get from traditional cable companies like Comcast‘S (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Xfinity of Charter‘S (NASDAQ: CHTR) Spectrum is addressing one of the main reasons consumers continue to pay sky-high cable bills.

Despite its obvious marketability and a few competitive advantages, however, this livestreaming service also faces serious challenges. It’s possible — perhaps even likely — that its shares won’t be higher than they are now in five years.

What is fuboTV anyway?

It may seem to compete with cable in the sense that it offers the same live network broadcasts, live sports, and other cable programming, but it is distinctly different. Namely, in the same way that Disney‘S (NYSE: DIS) Hulu+Live and Alphabet‘S (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) With YouTube TV, Fubo streams regular cable TV programming digitally over the subscriber’s existing broadband connection.

It also provides access to on-demand video, similar to Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) or Discovery of Warner Bros.‘S (NASDAQ: WBD) Max (although on a smaller scale than both). Interestingly, while there are clear similarities, fuboTV not is regulated by the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) as a cable company, which keeps costs low.

The sports-focused platform now has more than 1.8 million subscribers, 1.45 million of whom pay an average of $85.69 per month for access to the streaming alternative to cable TV. (The remaining 400,000 customers in the “Rest of World” pay just $7.02 for much cheaper subscriptions, allowing the company’s core business to remain the main breadwinner.)

Customer growth of 24% in the quarter compared to last year drove the majority of fuboTV’s revenue growth of 26%, continuing the established trend.

Losses also narrowed, from just over $54 million in the second quarter of last year to a loss of just under $29 million for the three-month period through June.

Based on this current trajectory, the company still expects to achieve profitability at some point in the coming year. And perhaps shall by then we will be out of the red and into profit.

However, there are a number of risks here that investors underestimate.

Four Concerns Too Big to Ignore

The first risk is that the number of subscribers decreases.

While last quarter’s 24% is impressive, it’s also well below fuboTV’s growth rate of a few years ago, and it’s likely to continue to slow.

In its second-quarter report, the company indicated that subscriber growth for its cable TV alternative would likely slow to just 9% (year over year) for the current quarter, before slowing again to a pace of just about 7% in the final quarter of the year. Both would be the worst subscriber growth figures since the company as we know it launched. Meanwhile, the company’s customer base in the “Rest of World” is not expected to grow all until the end of this year.

FuboTV's customer growth is slowing and will continue to do so in the future.FuboTV's customer growth is slowing and will continue to do so in the future.

FuboTV’s customer growth is slowing and will continue to do so in the future.

Data source: Fubo Inc. Graph by author. Number of customers is in thousands.

There is also a great prospect that they will be undermined.

You may already know that Fubo recently won a legal battle against ESPN parent company Walt Disney, Fox (NASDAQ: FOX) (NASDAQ: FOXA)and Warner Bros. Discovery, preventing the trio from jointly launching a sports-only live streaming service — called Venu — that would cost just $43 a month. FuboTV feared the offering could poach some 400,000 paying customers from its sports-focused service.

Now, take a closer look at the details of the ruling. The order is being appealed, meaning Fubo could soon still compete directly with the powerhouse joint venture.

But even if Venu is successfully blocked, read between the lines. Something else to like Venu remains a distinct possibility, even if each of these three studios and sports networks is simply forced to launch their own standalone sports streaming service. Each such platform poses at least some level of threat to fuboTV, and the more of them there are, the greater the collective threat.

Potential investors also want to know that while the company is paying down its debt, that effort comes at a high price for shareholders. Fubo also continues to issue massive amounts of new shares of its own stock to pay its bills, diluting the interests of existing shareholders. Even if and when the organization turns a profit, there’s no guarantee it won’t continue to do so as a way to fund growth.

Chart of outstanding FUBO sharesChart of outstanding FUBO shares

Chart of outstanding FUBO shares

FUBO Shares Excellent Data from YCharts

Finally, while it’s not currently considered a cable TV brand and therefore not regulated as such, never say never. The FCC is interested in the prospect, recognizing that digital video streaming did not exist at the time of the current rules. If that happens, fuboTV’s operating costs will almost certainly rise, forcing it to put its service on par with conventional cable companies’ pricing plans.

Too much uncertainty for most portfolios

It’s not all bad. As noted, fuboTV is on a path to profitability. Scale helps, as does more cost-effective spending. Higher-margin ad revenue is growing particularly well, up 14% in the last quarter alone. It’s conceivable that the company could end up in the black and stay there.

The chance that Fubo will ever become truly successful still seems too small for most investors to take the risk.

Look, this company is still competing directly with players with much more money, like Alphabet or Disney. Those companies don’t necessarily have the intention of making their live streaming platforms profitable. FuboTV doesn’t have that luxury.

It doesn’t have their size either. Hulu+Live has 4.4 million paying customers, to put it in perspective, while Alphabet says there are now about 8 million subscribers to its YouTube TV service. At the same time, Fubo has inThey compete directly with established cable TV providers like Charter’s Spectrum and Comcast’s Xfinity, both of which have greater marketing muscle and wider reach.

The best possible outcome here in five years? In my opinion, perhaps an acquisition of fuboTV by a larger media or technology company that believes it can do more with the young sports-focused streaming TV brand. Unfortunately, even if that were to happen, there’s no guarantee it would happen at an attractive price above this stock’s current price.

In short, investors should consider shopping for lower-risk, higher-opportunity opportunities.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. James Brumley holds positions at Alphabet and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool holds positions at and recommends Alphabet, Netflix, Walt Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and fuboTV. The Motley Fool recommends Comcast. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.