By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn

The Vegas Golden Knights are not safe this season. Not as safe as usual, anyway.

After losing Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson in free agency, Vegas’s forward depth looks extremely thin on the flanks. That makes them vulnerable.

The Golden Knights are still a strong team thanks to their core and blue line, but compared to past seasons, they enter the season with more questions than answers.

The projection

On the surface, a 96-point projection might feel light for a team of Vegas’s pedigree. The Golden Knights are annually treated as one of the preseason Cup favorites and this forecast has them closer to the wild-card race. A 2 percent chance at winning it all that ranks 13th doesn’t scream Cup contender.

Given the talent they’ve lost this offseason, the lack of talent they added and the 98-point season they just had, however, a 96-point projection shouldn’t be too controversial. What it suggests is a team with a potentially volatile trajectory in front of them, to where it’s not difficult to see Vegas reaching a very high ceiling — or crashing down to a shockingly low floor.

Everything rides on the bets the team is making on their wingers, a group of inexperienced players with some potential led by an oft-injured star captain. If that group looks better than expected, the strength Vegas has elsewhere will be enough to make the team a contender again.

If not… a 96-point forecast may turn out to have been far too generous.

The big question

Can Jack Eichel elevate his game enough to make up for Vegas’ issues at wing?

If Eichel never played another game for the Golden Knights, his time with the franchise would still be considered a success. He was, flat out, that good during the 2023 playoffs. When you’re a dominant first-line center on a championship team, your legacy is pretty much set. Flags fly forever, or something like that.

This season though (somehow his fourth since Vegas acquired him from the Buffalo Sabres) is shaping up to be an interesting one. This is part of what we wrote about him in The Athletic’s Player Tiers for 2024-25, one in which he landed squarely in Tier 2, home of the franchise player — a spot certain members of our expert panel believed was too low:

“He’s consistently one of the league’s very best transition players. He’s now had two straight seasons with more than 2.4 points per 60 at five-on-five, which isn’t quite elite but within spitting distance. His overall impact on five-on-five play, when accounting for shot and chance generation, couldn’t be much better. And he was, perhaps, the best player on a Cup winner. A full season (one where he finally hits the 90-point mark) might be enough to move him up.”

That increased level of production might also be necessary for the Golden Knights to keep their spot among the NHL’s elite. It’s certainly the easiest way to make up for the attrition Vegas has experienced among its core of wingers since their Cup win. In the last two offseasons, they’ve parted ways with Marchessault, William Carrier and Reilly Smith — and those are just the headline names. The end result is an almost perfect 180 from the pre-Eichel days, when Vegas’ power source was almost solely on the wings.

There are reasons to think that elusive 90-point season is within reach, and there are reasons to think it’s too much to ask. Eichel’s simplest route would be to stay healthy for a full 82 games. That’s easier said than done, though, for a player with an injury history as spotty as Eichel’s. He hasn’t dressed for more than 68 since 2018-19, when he was still with Buffalo. Last season, he needed midseason knee surgery that cost him about six weeks of games. That heightened risk of missing time is the main reason we don’t even have Eichel projected to hit 75 points (he’s at 74 in 72 games).

The loss of Marchessault — on a below-market deal with the Predators — also figures to take a chunk out of Eichel’s production. In the 450 minutes they were on the ice together last season along Ivan Barbashev, Vegas outscored opponents 21-14. Marchessault, more than any winger on Vegas’ current roster, fit Eichel’s strengths, particularly in transition. (We certainly know what they can do together in the playoffs. In 2023, Vegas won their minutes together 19-6 and Marchessault wound up beating out Eichel for the Conn Smythe Trophy.) Victor Olofsson, who gets the first crack at filling that void, is certainly nowhere near the same caliber of player.

Hertl’s presence for a full season could also help. As good as William Karlsson is, Hertl still adds a level of down-the-middle offensive dynamism to the mix that, outside of Eichel, Vegas has lacked. It’s easy to imagine nights when the combo of Hertl and Mark Stone draw tougher matchups.

Whatever happens, it’s important to note it’s no longer about offense with Eichel; he’s raised the bar for himself in recent years by rounding out his game back in his own zone. That led to him becoming a fixture on Vegas’ top penalty-kill unit for the first time in his career and brought his Defensive Rating up to a plus-3, which is tied for Karlsson as the best of the forward group. That’s proof enough that he has the ability to find new levels and add fresh wrinkles to his game.

He’s still just one guy, though. It takes a special kind of player to do it alone, a trait usually reserved for the Tier 1 players in this league — a club that Eichel once seemed on track to join. For the members of our expert panel who believe Eichel is already knocking on that door, he’s never going to have a better chance at proving them correct.

The wild card

Can Alexander Holtz flourish in an expanded role?

If you didn’t pay close attention to the New Jersey Devils last season, the trade that landed Holtz in Las Vegas might have been a bit of a surprise. The Golden Knights acquired him, along with depth goalie Akira Schmid, for fourth-line center Paul Cotter and a third-round pick. Holtz was the No. 7 draft selection in 2020 and had just scored 16 goals in limited minutes during his first full NHL season — not great, but also not typically the sort of player involved in a swap of spare parts.

For Holtz, though, the writing had been on the wall. In a press conference after Lindy Ruff was fired in early March, GM Tom Fitzgerald was blunt.

“If he changes as a player, then there will be a change in his ice time,” Fitzgerald said. “He has not had a good year. The core values you have as a player — strong on walls, puck play, puck management, are you turning pucks over — it’s not about goals. It’s the other areas, the game within the game … Those areas have to be way better.”

That dissatisfaction was evident in his ice time. Goals aside, Holtz averaged just 11:38 per game under both Ruff and Travis Green. Tracking data from Corey Sznjader offers some clues as to why. Holtz rarely touched the puck in the defensive zone and almost literally never forechecked. Tough to win over coaches that way.

Still, he makes sense as a lottery ticket for the Golden Knights. They’re profoundly short on talent on the wing — Pavel Dorofeyev is the only one on the roster with a higher goals per 60 last season than Holtz’s 1.01 — and his shot alone makes him worth the gamble. Why not see if Bruce Cassidy can coach him up?

The strengths

Strength down the middle was the one thing Vegas lacked in its first couple of seasons. While their winger depth generally made up for it, that’s changed with a few blockbuster trades.

The Golden Knights are one of the boldest teams when it comes to player movement. In 2021, there was the Eichel trade. Then last March, Vegas sent shockwaves through the trade market by acquiring Tomáš Hertl. That trade earned a lot of hype Hertl now has to live up to. With Eichel and Hertl leading the way, the team ranks third in center depth.

Hertl showed he was still a very capable first-line center in San Jose last season despite having very little support around him. He’s a high-end playmaker and a crafty goal-scorer who can drive offense. On paper, he looks like an ideal fit for the Golden Knights and a luxury at 2C. Vegas just has to hope last year’s very short stint – 13 games between the regular season and playoffs – wasn’t a sign of what’s to come in his Golden Knights tenure.

On the third line, Vegas boasts an elite shutdown center in Karlsson. With 30 goals and 60 points in 70 games, he put up his best scoring season since his flashy 43-goal campaign back in 2017-18. The Golden Knights rocked a 56.5 percent expected goals rate in his minutes and were stingy in their own zone, even against top competition. Nicolas Roy would fit as a capable 3C if the team needed, so the Golden Knights have to decide if he’s better served down the middle of the fourth line or on the wing somewhere in the middle six. His skill gives the team an element of lineup versatility.

The middle six isn’t exactly inspiring, but there is potential if Pavel Dorofeyev and Brendan Brisson can hit their stride consistently. Their roles (and whether they’ll be slotted a bit above their depths) depend on Stone. He is the wild card of the Golden Knights’ forward group — a disruptor at both ends of the ice when he’s in the lineup who adds to the team’s two-way talent up front. It’s staying in the lineup that’s the problem.

On the back end, Vegas is stacked from top to bottom. The team’s number one, Alex Pietrangelo, struggled through much of last season. He was a lot less active offensively and less effective in transition. Those breakout struggles likely contributed to him being on the ice for a career-high rate of 3.27 goals against per 60 at five-on-five. Maybe Pietrangelo’s age is catching up with him, but having Noah Hanifin on his left for a full season instead of Alec Martinez should help refresh his game. It also allows for a natural transition that places Pietrangelo as the No. 2 — much more fitting for his current value.

The Golden Knights acquired Hanifin at a pretty reasonable price for a top-pair defenseman, and some insiders explained why in this year’s Player Tiers project.

“I don’t think he is a truly high-end offensive player, and I don’t think he is a great defender,” one executive said. “I just don’t see him having a standout skill set to make him a true No. 1 D.”

While Hanifin’s game isn’t super flashy, his all-around ability clicked in Vegas post-deadline last year. In 19 games to end the regular season, the Golden Knights controlled play with approximately 59 percent of the expected goals share. That pumped up his Net Rating to a plus-9, which is second to only Shea Theodore on defense. While insiders aren’t convinced, the model is a big fan of his jack-of-all-trades vibe.

Still, Hanifin’s Round 1 wasn’t as flattering as his first impression. The Golden Knights generated less offense in his minutes and the team shooting less than 6 percent at five-on-five didn’t help matters. Vegas also allowed less back in that time relative to the team, which is important considering the matchup minutes he’s going to be tasked with playing alongside Pietrangelo.

On the second pair, Theodore’s an elite offensive creator on the Golden Knights. His name has been thrown around the Norris Trophy conversation before as a late-ballot pick. If he can build on last year’s scoring across a full season, he could legitimately be in the mix for it. Theodore balances out Brayden McNabb’s defense-first mentality, making for a steady second pair. Behind Theodore, Zach Whitecloud adds to their depth on the right that stands out as the fourth-best in the league. Nicolas Hague rounds out the blue line and forms a solid third pair.

From top to bottom, it is an absolutely stacked group — arguably the deepest in the league. With a first pair that ranks 11th compared to other top pairs, a second pair that ranks first and a third pair that ranks eighth, Vegas was this close to joining Carolina as the second team with three top-10 pairs.

The weaknesses

As much as the Golden Knights have loaded up down the middle, they’ve had to make cuts on the wings.

Vegas now has to figure out who can replace Marchessault on that top line with Eichel and Barbashev. As much as Eichel has been the quarterback of that first line over the last couple of seasons, Marchessault was the perfect match on his right. And someone like Olofsson, who is getting the first look on Eichel’s right in training camp, likely can’t match what he brought to the fold.

Olofsson brings some firepower to the Golden Knights as a three-time 20-goal scorer. There just isn’t a ton of consistency or sustainability behind that goal-scoring, with his best coming in 2022-23, when he shot over 17 percent. It doesn’t help that Olofsson is coming off one of his worst shooting seasons yet, with his volume and quality both tanking to career lows. There isn’t enough oomph behind the rest of his game to make up for that, either.

Maybe time with a premier puck-mover like Eichel can raise Olofsson’s game. But a Barbashev-Eichel-Olofsson first line just doesn’t project to be playoff-caliber. And that looks to be the case with any player in Marchessault’s spot, other than Stone, which would make what used to be a deep, balanced offensive core very top-heavy.

If Stone isn’t healthy and ready to play his first full regular season in three years, another winger will get slotted out of their depth and drag the Golden Knights down even more. It would likely mean more opportunity for Holtz. If he can turn the page from New Jersey, that could be a good thing. But a top-six role is likely still well above his depth at this point.

If Stone is healthy, there’s still a trend to keep an eye on. He was on the ice for a career-high 2.79 expected goals against per 60. And for the first time in Vegas, he was only narrowly above break-even in expected goals. Maybe that can be chalked up to the team around him or his health, and he can get back to difference-maker status. But it’s something the Golden Knights have to track if he’s more of a fixture in the lineup this year.

But even if Stone is healthy this year, the Golden Knights’ winger depth is a significant weakness. The left side ranks 28th in the league, and the right is a step worse at 29th. For those inside the game who believe wingers are the least important position, Vegas will serve as an interesting test to that theory.

Despite all their strengths down the middle, those wingers drag Vegas’ Offensive Rating down to a minus-3, which falls to 19th in the league. That doesn’t come close to the average contender, which comes in at plus-23.

Compare that to other contenders in the Western Conference the Golden Knights will have to compete against. The Oilers, Avalanche and Stars all have a forward group with an Offensive Rating upwards of plus-20. Vancouver isn’t too far off either, at a plus-18.

As much as Vegas can try to lean on their two-way forwards and powerhouse defensemen on the back end, there’s another element of their game that falls short from a contender’s perspective: the goaltending.

Adin Hill has generally put up quality goaltending in Vegas over the last two years and raised his game in their 2023 Stanley Cup run. But he struggled down the stretch last season, which led to Logan Thompson taking over to open the playoffs. And there have been some durability concerns.

When Thompson was behind Hill, the Golden Knights at least had a reliable 1B/backup to step up. But with Thompson being traded to Washington, Ilya Samsonov was brought in as a replacement.

Samsonov failed to repeat his impressive 2022-23, when he emerged as the Maple Leafs’ starter. He eventually found his game late in the year and started five playoff games for Toronto. Maybe that points to a bounce-back season in Vegas this year, but until he proves otherwise, he brings an element of volatility to the crease.

If there’s any merit to Thompson’s quote about the Golden Knights taking credit for the goaltending, maybe a Hill-Samsonov tandem will be just fine. But there’s also a chance Vegas forces turnovers and controls play this season, but struggles to finish their chances and get reliable saves to an above-average degree. If that is indeed the case, one look at the roster should tell you that it won’t be “bad puck luck” — it’ll be by design.

The best case

The legend of the misfits continues as Vegas’s less-heralded winger group breaks through and holds their own alongside the team’s deep center corps. With an elite defense group as the team’s backbone, Vegas goes on a deep playoff run.

The worst case

Stone once again misses half the season and the sheer dearth of wingers proves to be a real problem as Vegas struggles to find offense. Pietrangelo continues to decline and the dysfunctional mess elsewhere leaves Vegas outside the playoff picture.

The bottom line

You’re not going to find many teams with more clearly delineated strengths and weaknesses than the Golden Knights — nor are you going to find a front office that pulls the trigger on attempted upgrades more aggressively. This season, they may not have a choice.

References

How the model works 

How the model adjusts for context

Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

NHL

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.

(Photo of Jack Eichel: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)