Tropical Storm Gordon became the seventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic season at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 13, and began what appears to be a long, slow journey across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean – assuming Gordon survives the trek. In 1991-2020 data, the seventh named Atlantic storm of the year has averaged arrivals on Sept. 3, so Gordon developed more than a week later than the typical “G” storm.

As of 11 a.m. EDT Friday, Gordon was located in the remote tropical North Atlantic Ocean, about 1,000 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Gordon’s top sustained winds of 40 mph were at minimum tropical storm strength, and Gordon was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms (convection) pulsing around Gordon’s center were pushed eastward by wind shear of around 15 knots. This wind shear should gradually diminish over the next few days, and Gordon will cross increasingly warmer sea surface temperatures, rising from around 27 degrees Celsius (81°F) to 28-29°C (82-84°F) early next week. However, Gordon will also be surrounded by an expanse of dry air, causing average relative humidity to drop from around 65% on Friday to around 50% Sunday-Monday, so any initial strengthening could be slowed over the weekend.

Gordon will not pose a threat to any land area for the next few days, and perhaps never will. Weak steering currents will prevail over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic for the next week, and this will likely slow Gordon’s general westward motion. Dry air could push Gordon back to tropical depression status at almost any point. Should Gordon strengthen along the way, it would also become more likely to recurve far east of the Caribbean or North America.

Francine’s remains continue to plague parts of the South

Showers and thunderstorms around Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, which was centered in northeast Arkansas and moving southeast at just 3 mph, continued to hamper the storm’s progress Friday. Francine slammed into central Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane around 5 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, injuring at least three people and bringing torrential rain and 70-100 mph winds as far east as the New Orleans area. More than 550,000 people were left without power in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, and widespread flooding prompted numerous water rescues.

Check out local weather stations’ wind gusts during Hurricane Francine yesterday. The highest gusts were measured offshore. Further inland, LFT experienced gusts of up to 31 mph, while some stations in St. Mary Parish recorded gusts of 61-62 mph. photo.twitter.com/qG0DEH5nAP

— Breyanna Lewis (@breyannalwx) September 13, 2024

Francine’s greatest preliminary rainfall totals from Sunday night through Wednesday evening include 9.69 inches in Covington, LA; 8.63 inches in Waveland, MS; and 8.05 inches in Nonconnah Creek, TN.

A man whose pickup truck became stuck in fast-moving waters caused by Hurricane Francine’s rains was rescued by a good Samaritan who also happened to be an emergency room nurse. https://t.co/ZzecfOmPSC

— NBC10 Philadelphia (@NBCPhiladelphia) September 13, 2024

“Francine will likely result in economic losses in the low to mid-single digits,” Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re, one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, said in a direct message. He added: “This could have been a lot worse, but fortunately, landfall occurred in a sparsely populated area of ​​Louisiana. While wind-related losses may be somewhat lower than initially feared, the flood-related impacts from Francine are expected to be somewhat greater – including in areas outside of Louisiana.”

#Francine really overperformed here in the Mid-South. We saw widespread 4-6″+ (rain totals through 11 PM last night) along with wind gusts over 50 mph. In the face we saw a 58 mph gust at the airport here in #Memphis yesterday! #MEMwx #TNwx #ARwx #MSwx photo.twitter.com/CknZ6A7Fhp

— Cory Smith (@wxcory) September 13, 2024

This weekend, the heaviest rains from ex-Francine, which could total 6 to 8 inches, are expected in northern Alabama. A few intense downpours are possible from eastern Arkansas to western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Aside from the risk of localized flash flooding, Francine’s rains will be largely beneficial for this part of the South, much of which was blanketed in moderate to severe drought conditions in the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released Sept. 12.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a weak disturbance called Invest 94L moving through the northern Leeward Islands has struggled with dry air and is unlikely to develop further. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2 p.m. EDT on Friday, the National Hurricane Center lowered the disturbance’s chances of development to nearly zero. Of greater concern is a stalled frontal boundary extending offshore from the Carolinas. A number of European and GFS ensemble modelers indicate that an area of ​​low pressure could develop along the front and strengthen into a tropical or (more likely) subtropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week, likely moving northwestward toward the coast. This system was given a 10 percent chance of developing through Sunday and a 40 percent chance through next Friday. The next named storm on the Atlantic list is Helene.

Tropical Storm Ileana is moving toward the Gulf of California

Although disorganized, Tropical Storm Ileana pulled an extensive shield of intense convection from the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean to southern Baja California on Friday and is likely to push moisture into the southwestern United States through the weekend. As of 11 a.m. EDT Friday, Ileana was located about 55 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with sustained winds of 40 mph.

Ileana is expected to hit the southeastern Baja Peninsula on Friday night and traverse the Gulf of California for most of the weekend, likely weakening to a tropical depression by Sunday. Wind damage is likely to be minimal, but Ileana could dump pockets of 8-12+ inches of rain across parts of the southern Baja Peninsula and the northern state of Sinaloa, with local flash flooding and mudslides possible. Moisture moving north from Ileana could help produce scattered intense thunderstorms over Arizona Saturday night through Monday, again with local flash flooding possible.

Ileana’s clouds should at least end Phoenix’s record-breaking streak of 100°F (38°C) temperatures, which lasted 109 consecutive days through Thursday, September 12, including every day of meteorological summer (June through August).

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