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Top Picks from the CFB Betting Splits for Friday, September 20
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Top Picks from the CFB Betting Splits for Friday, September 20

Tonight we have a trio of Friday Night Lights games to choose from. Let’s see where the smart money is going with the help of our VSiN College Football Betting Splits, which come straight from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Stanford (1-1) narrowly defeated Cal Poly 41-7, but failed to cover as a 35-point home favorite. Meanwhile, Syracuse (2-0) narrowly defeated Georgia Tech 31-28, and pushed as a 3-point home favorite. This line opened with Syracuse as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the Orange at home. However, despite receiving 75% of the spread bets, we have seen Syracuse drop from -9.5 to -8.5. Why would the bookies drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they are already trashing Syracuse to begin with? Because the pro money has sided with Stanford plus the points, which has caused a sharp reverse line movement in favor of the away game. Stanford receives just 25% of spread bets in a heavily loaded primetime game on ESPN, offering notable contrarian value. Both teams are similar on offense, with Stanford scoring 68 points through two games while Syracuse has put up 69. The Cardinal have been better defensively, allowing 41 points to Syracuse’s 50. Stanford ranks 10th in the country in rushing defense. Wiseguys also appear to be lagging behind, as their total has dropped from 58 to 56.5 despite taking over 55% of bets.

Illinois (3-0, 24th) defeated Central Michigan 30-9, but could not cover it as a 21.5-point home favorite. Likewise, Nebraska (3-0, 22nd) defeated Northern Iowa 34-3, and covered it as a 30.5-point home favorite. This line started with Nebraska as a 9-point home favorite. The public is split on whether to take the points or lay them down. However, despite this 50/50 betting split, we have seen Nebraska fall from -9 to -7.5. In a vacuum, a line should not move at all when the bets are even, since the oddsmakers theoretically have no reason to adjust the number. So based on this 50/50 line movement, we can deduce that the pro money is on Illinois’ side plus the points. Illinois has value as a conference favorite, as the built-in familiarity and rivalry levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring. The Fighting Illini have a correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (42.5), with the lower expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. The under receives just 40% of the bets but 64% of the dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian betting split.

San Jose State (3-0) easily defeated Kennesaw State 31-10, and closed out as 16.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Washington State (3-0) defeated Washington 24-19, and closed out as 6-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with Washington State as a 14-point home favorite. The public is expecting an easy blowout from the Cougars, and 72% of spread bets are rushing into the window to tie the score with Washington State. Despite this lopsided support, however, we have seen Washington State drop from -14 to -13. This marks a sharp reverse line movement for San Jose State, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the very unpopular side. The Spartans are receiving just 28% of spread bets in a heavily-held late-night game, offering some notable “bet against the crowd” value. San Jose State will rely on its defense to keep this game close, allowing just 41 points in three games while Washington State has given up 65. The Spartans have a correlative betting value as a near two-touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (55), with the lower expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover. Washington State could also be in a “disappointment” after their big upset win over in-state rival Washington. The total opened at 55.5 and reached as high as 57.5 during the week before falling back to 55, where it currently stands. The under receives just 40% of the bets, but 45% of the dollars.