The Dodgers suffered one of their most embarrassing overall losses on Sunday, when a 10-2 loss was nearly overshadowed by idiotic fans who threw shit on the field and to/to Jurickson Professor and a ball-throwing controversy. As bad as that all felt, it’s still just one loss and the best-of-five series now becomes a best-of-three, with the Padres having home field advantage in the next two games in San Diego. The Padres won four of five games against the Dodgers in San Diego, two of which came via walk-offs. The only Dodger win in San Diego this season came on May 11, when James Paxton pitched six shutouts. Today the Dodgers are trying to take control of the series and actually get a chance to hit without going down in the first inning.

	6:08 PM		San Diego
DH	Ohtani (L)	1B	Arraez (L)
RF	Beth	RF	Tatis Jr.
1B	Vrijman (L)	L.F	Profar (S)
L.F	T. Hernández	3B	Machado
3B	Muncy (L)	C.F	Merrill (L)
c	Smith	SS	Bogaerts
2B	Lux (L)	DH	Peralta (L)
C.F	Edman (S)	2B	Cronenworth (L)
SS	Rojas	c	Higashioka
P	Bühler (R)	P	King (R)

Walker Buhler will have the opportunity tonight to further strengthen his reputation as a big-game pitcher. It was a rough year overall for Buehler, who returned from a nearly two-year absence with a 5.38 ERA/5.54 FIP in 16 starts. Buehler’s last start would certainly qualify as a “big game” as he entered the Dodgers’ home finale and rubber match against the Padres with a chance to reach the NL West at home. It was an odd start for Buehler, who was effective (five innings, one run, 71 pitches) but struck out just one for Padre. They put 18 balls in play against Buehler, eight of which were hit at 95 MPH. He didn’t really fool anyone (just three swinging strikes), but kept the Padres in the park and gave the Dodgers five quality innings. It was much better than his other start against the Padres in San Diego in May, when he allowed three runs and two home runs in 3 1/3 innings. Buehler threw 79 2/3 innings in the postseason and was mostly excellent with a 2.94 ERA/3.16 FIP and .623 OPS against. He hasn’t pitched in October since 2021 due to injury, but his 2021 postseason was a bit tough. He completed five or more innings only once in four starts, allowing 10 runs and three home runs in 18 1/3 innings. He started the final Dodger game that season, allowing four runs in four innings in a 4–2 victory in Atlanta that sent the Braves to the World Series.

Michael King is off to an excellent start for the Padres in the Wild Card round against Atlanta. King struck out 12 in seven shutout innings, with just five hits allowed. He has yet to allow a run in his postseason career (only two postseason innings pitched before that start last week) and has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts. His final appearance of the regular season came in LA and he allowed an unearned run in the first inning but held the Dodgers to five. The Dodgers forced him to throw 95 pitches to get through five as he worked his way through the first two innings, but he did a good job limiting the damage. King was quite dominant in the second half of the season and has seemingly continued that into the playoffs. He allowed just 18 earned runs (27 total) over his last 14 starts and struck out 92 with 25 walks in 80 innings. He managed to complete five innings just once during that stretch and allowed just four home runs in that time.

King was the best pitcher this season at limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity of 85.7 MPH and 30.3 percent hard hit percentage were both among the lowest of any starter this season (lowest average exit velocity, second-lowest hard hit rate Blake Snell). He threw a sinker 27.9 percent, changeup 24.6 percent, four-seamer 24.1 percent, a sweeper 17.8 percent and a slider 5.6 percent of the time. He threw his changeup more than he ever has this season, posting a 36.2 percent whiff rate with it while opponents hit just .207 with a slugging percentage of .286.

Freddie Vrijman is in the lineup tonight after leaving Game 2 early with an aggravated ankle. David Peralta gets the start at DH again for the Padres, with Luis Arraez starting from the first.

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The Dodgers made a bullpen move and activated Ben Casparius as a replacement for injuries Michael Grove.

MLB announces that Ben Casparius will replace Michael Grove on the Dodgers NLDS roster as an injury replacement

— Jack Harris (@ByJackHarris) October 8, 2024

Grove would be ineligible for the NLCS if the Dodgers advance. He threw 11 pitches on Sunday and allowed one of six Padre home runs before notching the final out of the eighth inning. He reportedly has a shoulder problem and will have scans. Casparius gives the Dodgers another length option if Buehler struggles and a potential starter/piggyback option Landon Knack for tomorrow. Casparius did well in three Major League appearances (with a grain of salt as two of those came against the Rockies). He totaled 8 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs with 12 strikeouts.

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Dustin wrote a few words on BallGate earlier, check that out. They pretty much reflect my feelings. Machado is annoying, not worth spending time and energy on when they are two losses away from another NLDS exit.

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The first pitch is scheduled for 6:08 PM PT and will air on FS1.