The San Diego Padres reached the National League Division Series on Wednesday evening after a 5-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves. It was a microcosm of the second half of the Padres 2024 season; quality starting pitching, bullpen depth, luck and timely situational hitting. It also took away San Diego’s biggest advantage over other playoff teams, including their NLDS opponents, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres scored all five of their runs in the second inning, sparking a two-out rally against Braves starter Max Fried. Luis Arraez singled on a home run by Kyle Higashioka, then Fernando Tatis Jr. tapped a ball to third base, resulting in an infield single. Jurickson Profar added an even weaker infielder grounder, loading the bases for Manny Machado. Machado doubled for two, and Jackson Merrill followed with a bases-clearing triple to increase the lead to 5-1.

Padres starter Joe Musgrove then settled down after a shaky first inning and retired eight straight Braves in the 4th. But the game and San Diego’s future prediction quickly changed when Musgrove faced Braves star Marcell Ozuna. Higashioka and the Padres bench noticed Musgrove’s velocity dropped several miles per hour on both his fastball and curveball. And after a visit from the training staff, Musgrove left the game. And in doing so, the team’s biggest advantage going forward was taken away.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 02: Joe Musgrove #44 of the San Diego Padres adjusts his hat against the Atlanta Braves during the fourth inning in Game Two of the Wild Card Series at Petco Park on October 2, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

The Padres pitching depth will now be tested heading into the NLDS

The Padres lineup has depth and quality, headlined by Machado, Tatis, Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. Luis Arraez rarely strikes out, Profar is having the best season of his career and Higashioka unexpectedly has one of the highest home runs per at bat this year. While their hitting in the second half was exceptional, the team’s defense outside of Merill and Machado is lacking.

Defensively, San Diego ranked just 20th in Major League Baseball in value-add, according to Fangraphs. Other advanced defensive metrics, including UZR, ranked the team even lower. Overall, though, the Padres lineup, even including the mediocre defense and baserunning, is solidly above average. But their real strength entering October was pitching. Especially starting pitching.

In an era with more pitcher injuries than ever, San Diego entered the wild-card series with a fully healthy starting staff. Michael King, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish gave the Padres four options they could rely on in terms of both length and quality. But Musgrove’s injury, described by the team as “right elbow tightness,” immediately changed that prognosis going forward.

Cease and King remain two of the best pitchers in the National League, and Darvish has generally pitched well since returning from a long absence. But assuming Musgrove is ready for the playoffs, a near certainty given an elbow injury, the Padres will now be forced to turn to a much less attractive option in a potential and crucial NLDS game four. Instead of Musgrove or Darvish, San Diego will have to turn to a bullpen game or risk starting Martin Perez or Randy Vazquez against a fearsome Dodgers lineup.

Perez was brutal in 2024, with a projected ERA of 5.38 and an FIP of 4.90. Vazquez was perhaps even worse. He posted an ERA of 4.87 and an expected ERA of 5.89, with just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The Padres’ vaunted pitching staff got a lot thinner when Musgrove walked off the mound.

Even a closer look at Darvish’s 2024 reveals plenty to worry about. His number of hard hits allowed is the highest of his career by a wide margin. His average fastball velocity is down a half mile per hour from 2023, his FIP is the highest of his career, thanks to a career-low strikeout rate. And his average exit velocity allowed has also increased to 89.4, another career high, up from 88.4 in 2023. He would still be one of the postseason’s best game four starters. But in game three, those numbers start to look much more concerning.

San Diego still has one of the postseason’s best bullpens, although closer Robert Suarez struggled mightily in September and setup man Jason Adam has now allowed four runs in his last 5.2 innings. With Musgrove out, the relievers, who were already heavily utilized in August and September, will now be forced to put down even more innings. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t be successful, and the Padres are still only a slight underdog against the Dodgers, but the margin for error has gotten a lot smaller.