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OOn Tuesday, Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will face off in New York for the only vice presidential debate of the election. Polling from Prolific exclusively for The independent shows that the debate has the opportunity to tip the balance.

But in reality, whoever wins the White House won’t be able to do much if he doesn’t control the Senate, which not only passes bills but also ratifies treaties and, most importantly, confirms cabinet and judiciary nominees.

That’s why both Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into determining the outcome of the Montana Senate race. Sen. Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent who first won the seat in 2006, is running against Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL. Polls show Democrats taking the lead in Senate races with incumbents in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, as well as in the open Senate races in Michigan and Arizona.

But Democrats suffered a major blow when Senator Joe Manchin – the former Democrat turned independent senator from West Virginia, a state where every county voted for Donald Trump – announced last year that he would not seek re-election, almost guaranteeing that the seat would be won. fall into Republican hands. That left Democrats with just 50 seats in the Senate, with few opportunities to flip seats other than long attempts in Florida and Texas, and put a spotlight on the race in Montana.

On Monday night, Tester and Sheehy traded barbs during a debate at the University of Montana in Missoula on everything from abortion to immigration to health care.

The debate focused heavily on reproductive rights, as Montanans will vote on a constitutional amendment that would codify abortion rights, which Tester said he would support.

“I believe women should be able to make their own health care decisions,” says Tester. “It shouldn’t be the federal government. It can’t be a bureaucrat. It shouldn’t be a judge. Women should be able to make their own health care decisions. That’s what Montanans love.”

Tester tried to criticize Sheehy for previously opposing the amendment that was on the ballot. But Sheehy tried to pivot, saying he supported exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, and trotted out a well-known lie, claiming Tester and Democrats are extremists who want abortion up to the moment of birth.

“If a baby is born alive, they refuse to provide protection for that life,” he said, a common talking point that former President Donald Trump has also brought up, which is not true, calling Tester “total bunk.”

‘It’s a lie. It’s not happening,” he said. “Those lives are already protected. Tim, you know, you’re saying it to try to politicize this issue even more than it already is.

Republicans think they have a good chance of winning the race in Montana. Senator Steve Daines, Montana’s junior senator, is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and was instrumental in clearing the field for Sheehy to avoid a painful primary. Additionally, the Cook Political Report recently changed its rating in Montana’s Senate race from “Toss-up” to “Lean Republican.”

Sheehy attacked Tester on immigration, which has become a top-of-mind issue for many voters. He said it contributed to the rising cost of housing and tried to tie Tester to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Tester, in turn, tried to hit Sheehy for opposing a bill that would have tightened restrictions at the U.S.-Mexico border, although Sheehy noted he was not a senator at the time.

“They will point to a bill that might have done something that wasn’t passed, and have yet another opportunity to deflect attention from the issue that they selectively and deliberately opened the border, allowed it and left wide open for years. Sheehy said.

Montana voted for Trump by double digits in 2016 and 2020. And Trump has frequently criticized Tester — who, as the top Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, scuttled Trump’s nominee to lead the department in 2018. In August, Trump traveled to Montana to hold a rally. rally for Sheehy.

During his closing remarks, Sheehy pointed to Tester’s opposition to Trump.

“He also voted twice to impeach Donald Trump. (He) said on CNN, we have to punch him in the face,” Sheehy said.

Monday’s debate was likely the last direct competition between Tester and Sheehy. But while all eyes will be on the debate in New York, Big Sky Country could determine the fate of Trump or Harris’ agenda.