(Editor’s note: This is an excerpt from Mike Sando’s Pick Six from October 7, 2024.)

The Washington Commanders’ 34-13 blowout against the Cleveland Browns showed two extremes on the karma continuum.

The Commanders’ marriage between offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Jayden Daniels seems carefully planned, almost preordained. It was a perfect combination to immediately maximize production. Daniels leads the league in EPA per passing game for an offense averaging 31 points per game. The Washington franchise is reborn and filled with hope.

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The Browns’ marriage between coach Kevin Stefanski, new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and quarterback Deshaun Watson feels forced, awkward and increasingly hopeless. Watson ranks 31st in the EPA per pass play for an offense averaging 14.2 points per game. Cleveland feels stuck.

“The problem is: what are they doing to encourage the team?” said an executive from another team. “Their hands are tied.”

Watson’s contract makes it that way for the time being.

“We don’t change quarterbacks,” Stefanski said.

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Watson’s EPA per passing game ranks 618th among the 621 quarterbacks who started the first five games of a season since 2000. The table below shows where all qualifying Browns quarterbacks rank among the 621. Brian Hoyer never knew how much he would be missed. (Not pictured, 2023 Browns alumnus Joe Flacco, who now has five touchdown passes, no interceptions and a 115.6 passer rating for Indianapolis).

For years, Stefanski ran run-oriented offenses to protect the quarterback’s exposure to tough situations. From 2018 through 2023, his offenses in Minnesota and Cleveland committed 51 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time and score differential started to influence play selection more. The Browns’ percentage this season is 63 percent, good for a No. 3 ranking on the Cook Index through five games.

“It’s like they want to be Kansas City and they’re just forcing it,” said another team’s defensive coordinator.

Cleveland is headed this way with Watson in the lineup. The success rate in these situations was 46 percent with Watson in the lineup for six games in 2022 and 53 percent for the six games he started last season.

From afar, it looks like the Browns are making an organizational decision to open up their offense on Watson to justify the $230 million they committed to him.

“You tried to protect Joe Flacco by handing it over last year,” said an offensive coach from another team. “With this quarterback (Watson), you can do whatever you want, so you try, but it’s not in your DNA. It’s cool when it works, but when it doesn’t work the guys are standing around looking at each other saying, ‘Wait a minute, why are we doing this?’

Reversing Nick Chubb’s absence is part of the equation. Cleveland also added Dorsey, the former Bills coordinator who enjoyed success in Buffalo but also leaned toward the pass (Buffalo has become more run-oriented since leaving). The Browns, whose offensive line was ravaged by injuries for the second straight year, also lost acclaimed line coach Bill Callahan to Tennessee. His voice could have been strong.

“I don’t know what they’re doing,” said another director. “No identity. Maybe it’s that Chubb isn’t there. They can’t help but take a step back without Callahan. It doesn’t appear this is Stefanski’s foul.”

Chubb returned to training this week as he recovers from a serious knee injury. We’ll see if anything changes once he’s back in the lineup.

(Photo by Deshaun Watson: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

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The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 compelling profiles, top football writers justify their selections and reveal the history of the NFL in the process.

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