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Showers occasionally this weekend, but be aware that a low pressure area may develop along the coast

Vaseline September 13, 2024

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) – The forecast for the weekend will not be a wash out. Expect increasing cloudiness into the weekend with isolated showers each day. We will continue to monitor the chance for a coastal low developing offshore this weekend. A developing low close enough to the Grand Strand will increase the chance for rain late this weekend and into early next week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, “a non-tropical low pressure area could develop along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Some subtropical or tropical development is possible early next week as the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast” generally toward the vicinity of the Carolinas.

We are considering a 30% chance of development off the Carolina coast. While we do not expect... — We are looking at a 30% chance of development off the Carolina coast. While we do not expect this to become a strong system, it could become tropical or subtropical by late this weekend and early next week.(WMBF)

High pressure over New England will block the system from turning out to sea and instead will force it to head toward the coast of the Carolinas. The exact path is uncertain at this time, but will determine how much rain and wind our area sees through early next week.

The chance of tropical or subtropical development remains at only 30%. Either way, locally... — The chance of tropical or subtropical development remains at only 30%. Either way, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to develop from Sunday night into Monday.(WMBF)

Strong upper-level winds, along with dry, cool air nearby, will help prevent the system from becoming too strong, and a strong tropical storm or hurricane is highly unlikely. New data this morning has kept development to a minimum or too far north to bring the heaviest rainfall to the Grand Strand. Of course, this is just one set of data, and we will continue to look for trends and patterns throughout the weekend.

Where exactly this low pressure area develops and/or does not develop will determine how much rain we will see on Sunday-Tuesday.

We'll be watching the end of the weekend and early next week for the possibility of a... — We will be monitoring the end of the weekend and early next week for the possibility of a low pressure area developing.(WMBF)

Ahead of the system, expect today to be cloudy with isolated showers. Most of the rain on Friday will be in the first half of the day. Temperatures will be in the low 80s. We will continue to see a few showers into the evening hours, but expect less coverage for anyone heading to high school football games tonight.

Humidity will steadily increase across the region on Saturday, resulting in an increased chance of rain and the risk of thunderstorms. With more clouds and rain, temperatures will remain low, reaching the upper 70s to near 80.

Cloudy skies with occasional showers will remain through the weekend. It won't rain all day, but... — Cloudy skies with occasional showers will remain through the weekend. It won’t rain all day, but expect occasional showers.(WMBF)

We are keeping the risk of scattered showers for Saturday and Sunday, with a lower chance of rain in the forecast compared to yesterday. Based on the latest trends, if we were to see a day that looks more like a soaking rain, it would be Sunday or Monday. Of course, this is still very much dependent on the track of the developing low. A track that goes too far east or north would mean less rain in our area.

Either way, strong wind gusts are likely, especially near the beaches, where gusts could reach up to 48 km/h.

The chance of rain increases as we head towards Saturday, with a few more showers at the beaches. The... — The chance of rain increases as we head into Saturday with a few more showers at the beaches. The latest model data suggests we will see a short break in the persistent rain before the chance of rain increases early next week.(WMBF)

Models continue to disagree on where the heaviest rain will fall. It could potentially shift to North Carolina or as far south as the Low Country. The official First Alert forecast currently calls for 2 to 4 inches of rain near the beaches with amounts of 1 to 2 inches inland.

Rainfall forecast is tricky. Currently 2-4" it looks like there will be more and more rain in the Grand... — Rainfall forecasting is tricky. Right now, the Grand Strand is looking at 2-4 inches of rain, with the highest amounts reaching North Carolina.(WMBF)

The best chance for the heaviest rainfall will be associated with the developing low pressure. Where exactly that is, remains the uncertain part of this forecast.