The Buffalo Bills lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Texans on a last-second field goal. A field goal that the Bills possibly could have prevented.

Once again, head coach Sean McDermott’s decision-making is under the microscope, with many expressing disgust at the decision to pass three times on Buffalo’s final drive. As a refresher, the match was tied with 32 seconds left in regulation. The Bills had placed the ball on their own three-yard line without timeouts. Houston had all three.
At first glance this seems like a mistake, but I’m here to convince you otherwise.

What is an error?

Before I really get started, I want to clarify things a bit. If you wanted three runs to force Houston to burn their timeouts and force overtime, then I don’t pretend to believe you’re wrong if that’s what you want. Did you want one attempt to move the ball and go from there? I understand that too.

The goal here is not to say “you’re wrong” or “I’m right.” Let’s take a step back and look at another decision to understand what I mean. Let’s pretend I’m about to flip a coin. You have to make a decision about which side will land up. You shout, “TAILS NEVER FAIL!” I let the coin fly.

It lands on the heads.

Was your decision a ‘mistake’? Only in the context of the result. However, since your decision was made before the results, your ‘mistake’ is understandable.
My point below is not that you are wrong. Just that we might have different preferences. While we may not agree on the decision, I can assure you that we are all disappointed with the outcome.

The context of the decision

Now that I’ve tried to insulate myself a bit from the wrath of the comments, let’s look at why this particular decision is better labeled as a preference difference rather than right/wrong.

Three run calls

Calling three runs almost certainly forces Houston to burn their timeouts. There’s a slim chance Buffalo breaks away for a big win to continue the ride. The runs probably gain a few yards. All other results being equal, gaining a few yards decreases the chance of Ka’imi Fairbairn making the kick. However, it is not very likely that Houston will be pushed back far enough to prevent the attempt. Running eliminates most of the risk associated with running back Josh Allen and fumbling in the end zone. Running the ball offers a relatively stable set of possible outcomes.

One shot and see what happens

Rather than completely going one way or the other, I’ve seen this idea thrown around and again, I don’t disagree with it. This strategy assumes a little more risk than asking for three run calls by asking for one drop back. It also increases the chance of success if that first game goes well. This game is likely to result in some distance gain, although probably less than the first plan. It is also notable that in the event of a failure on the first play, Houston retains a timeout, which did play a role in the actual outcome. This plan introduces a bit of volatility.

Three pass plays

Let’s get back to the idea that just pushing the Texans back a few yards helps. Take a moment to think about the decision being made before the results. Gained five yards and tied all other results in a 64-yard attempt. That is three meters further than Fairbairn’s personal best. It is just two meters away from the competition record. The odds of success drop off a cliff as you approach the limit of human ability. The mid-60s are currently approaching the limit of human capacity in the NFL. Those five meters are important.

With three chances with the ball in his hand, do you think Josh Allen can find five yards? That’s a bet I know I’ll take pretty much every time. A five-yard gain will likely result in what I saw many fans calling for: overtime. A single completed pass from three chances is likely to produce this result.

Now passing increases volatility the most. There are three chances for a catastrophe or interception in the end zone. It’s also three chances to play a game like we saw earlier in Keon Coleman’s game. Three passes give you a chance. Misses save time, which helps Buffalo because the next play can’t be a miss (even though we now know all three were).

No mistake

In our “coin flip scenario,” I point out that the coin toss isn’t exactly 50/50 odds. Nevertheless, “tails never fail” is not a bad strategy and not something I would consider a mistake. The odds are close enough to make either decision right.

As noted, the three passes introduce some volatility into the situation. But how much? Even with Josh Allen’s terrible stats in the game, his yards per attempt was 4.37 – meaning one completion probably still gets them what they need. With a 30% completion rate, even with a drop rate, three attempts should have gotten the result.

I could go on with mortgages. For example, I would argue that even running the ball three times gives Houston the ball back in the same amount of time. Without timeouts, maybe they can come up with a different play instead of the midfield play they did and still gain the yards. It’s not like the Bills allowed the Texans to have a colossal failure. They gave up a little bit of the game. It is also not inconceivable that Fairbairn will set a new personal record. His kick seemed to have been good from a few meters away.

I think three runs gives you a better chance of forcing overtime, just not drastically. I also think three passes increases the chance of something happening. We lost 13 seconds. We won by 23 seconds. Sean McDermott trusted his players and I’m happy with the decision, even if I don’t like the result.