Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance unveiled a new slogan in his quest to tie Democrats to inflation: Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Explosion Act.

Vance said this on at least three recent occasions, including a September 16 meeting in Sparta, Michigan. “Kamala Harris cast the deciding vote on the Inflation Explosion Act,” he said. “It is the single largest driver of inflation in the United States today.”

Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, speaks rhetorically; the “Inflation Explosion Act” reflects the name of the Inflation Reduction Act. President Joe Biden signed the bill after Harris, in her role as vice president, broke a tie as president of the Senate. Vance joined all Republicans in opposing the bill.

Other Republicans in competitive Senate races have similarly argued that the Inflation Reduction Act, contrary to its name, has made prices higher.

In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy posted on

In Pennsylvania, an ad from the pro-Republican Senate Leadership Fund targeted Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, saying Casey “promised us that his vote will ‘reduce inflation.’” It shows a clip of Casey saying these words in an August 2022 floor speech in support of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The attacks are misleading.

After the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, inflation did not increase; it fell. Although this was usually for reasons other than the act itself, it undermines the topic of conversation.

An earlier law passed by Democrats, the American Rescue Plan Act, is generally blamed for worsening inflation. The Republican messaging does not focus on this law; it wrongly hyped another law with a catchier name.

Kevin Madden, a former campaign aide to Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said Republicans are trying to turn the tables on Democrats by describing the Inflation Reduction Act as a spending bill that doesn’t address the major causes of inflation.

“Democrats, recognizing that inflation is a top concern for many voters, have attempted to take credit for the current inflation trend line – which is trending lower, albeit at a somewhat stubborn pace – by point to their support and passage of the Inflation Reduction Act as an important part of addressing these voter concerns,” said Madden, now a senior partner at the Penta Group, an international communications and consulting firm.

“Republican messaging efforts have tried to flip the script,” Madden said.

What has the Inflation Reduction Act done?

Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act on August 16, 2022, after passage by Democratic-led party-line votes in the House and Senate. Its key provisions focused on reducing carbon emissions, letting Medicare negotiate drug prices and boosting Internal Revenue Service funding.

When the law was signed, annual inflation was 8.3%, not far below June’s peak of around 9% – the highest in about four decades.

In June 2023, annual inflation fell to 3% and has remained below 3.7% every month since. August’s 2.5% interest rate is similar to pre-pandemic levels and close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The Inflation Reduction Act has not actually played a major role in reducing inflation since mid-2022.

The bill’s provisions could one day help keep prices low, for example by allowing Medicare to negotiate certain drug prices. But elements of the law were phased in over a number of years and could not have had a significant impact in 2022 and 2023, when the largest two-thirds decline in the inflation rate occurred.

Economists say interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, falling oil prices and an economic slowdown in China have played a more important role in easing inflation over the past two-plus years.

The easing of inflation following the bill’s passage undermines claims like Vance’s that the Inflation Reduction Act is “the single largest driver of inflation in the United States today.”

Citing another bill would be more accurate

If Vance and his allies had specified another bill with a less ironic name, they would have had a stronger point.

The American Rescue Plan Act, which Biden signed into pandemic relief law shortly after taking office, included $1,400 direct payments to about 85% of Americans, $360 billion for state and local governments and $242 billion in expanded unemployment benefits.

As lawmakers worked on the measure, some economists, including Larry Summers, who headed the National Economic Council under former President Barack Obama, warned that the bill would lead to inflation. Fiscal conservatives joined in the warning.

Economists now generally agree that the critics had a point. They say the law put too much money in Americans’ pockets as the pandemic hobbled global supply chains, meaning too much money chasing too few goods and services. Because demand exceeded supply, prices rose.

However, most economists also agree that the American Rescue Plan did not alone cause the rise in inflation. Supply chain shortages have fueled the rise in inflation, economists say, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – which prompted a spike in oil prices and other trade disruptions – exacerbated it.

The Senate Leadership Fund ad tacitly acknowledges this sleight of hand: On screen, the ad shows Casey discussing the Inflation Reduction Act on the Senate floor, but later says, “Casey’s vote made (inflation) worse” by offering a footnote that refers to the American Rescue Plan Act.

When we contacted the Trump-Vance campaign, Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly cited Harris’ role in enacting both the Inflation Reduction Act and the American Rescue Plan Act.

“Kamala Harris was the deciding vote on both the failed $1.9 trillion stimulus and the Inflation Explosion Act – both of which caused prices to rise 20.3 percent since Harris and Biden took office,” Kelly said. “Americans don’t care which of Harris’ runaway spending proposals led to higher taxes and less money in their pockets.”

Focusing solely on inflation ignores parallel wage growth.

Since August 2022, when the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, prices have risen 6.4%, but wages have risen faster: 8.5%. In other words: since the introduction of the bill, consumers have come out ahead.