• QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens — Under 19.5 completions: The two-time MVP is more than capable of showing the ball, but the Ravens will likely try to Derrick Henry often in this competition.

• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — More than 6.5 receiving yards: In five of his eight Week 1 appearances, Henry easily surpassed that receiving yardage record. Three of those games were also Henry’s highest receiving outputs of the season, including in 2023.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game Overview

There’s no better way to kick off an NFL season than with a long-awaited rematch of one of the 2023 Game of the Year contenders: the AFC title game between back-to-back champions. Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

In their closely fought playoff game, both defenses performed exceptionally well, particularly in the second half, when the offenses combined for three points. Both teams struggled to find a consistent footing on offense, and that was the difference. Ultimately, the Chiefs’ modest first-half lead proved too much for the Ravens to overcome.

Baltimore continued to stagnate on offense, failing to execute the passing game and largely giving up the run early. The soon-to-be-named 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a 50.6 PFF passing grade, largely due to the offense’s inability to adjust its game plan to get the ball out quicker. Kansas City then mustered 17 pressures in the second half, including a trio of brutal sacks.

The Ravens largely ignored the run game — they gave up just six carries to running backs in the game — despite having the Chiefs’ second-worst EPA per rush ranking prior to the game, leading many to question their game plan. That undoubtedly led to the signing of Derrick Henry this off-season.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also shook up his roster this offseason, adding a talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed departing but rookie wideout Xavier Worthy enter via the draft. Ultimately, the road to the Super Bowl still runs through Reid and quarterback Patrick MahomesThe question is: can anyone catch up with them?

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Under 19.5 completions (+100) — 9.5% PFF Greenline edge

The reigning MVP had 46 dropbacks in the last Chiefs-Ravens matchup, but he managed just 20 completions, with his offense scoring 10 points when it was all said and done. That game plan won’t cut it this time around.

Through 2023, Jackson has averaged just over 19 completions per game, eclipsing that mark in nine games. The two-time MVP is more than capable of making the ball fly, but the Ravens’ offense is arguably more effective when the ground game sets up the pass, posting the fourth-highest EPA per play mark after the run last season.

Maximizing that output was precisely their goal when they Derrick Henry to this backfield to complement Jackson. That investment in the run game will be on full display as Baltimore looks to redeem itself from its playoff exit.

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 6.5 receiving yards (-118) — 6.1% PFF Greenline Edge

While Henry isn’t known specifically for his receiving ability, he’s certainly not without his prowess in that department. He’s earned a personal-best 70.7 PFF receiving grade in 2023. The power forward averaged about 1.8 targets per game last season, eclipsing that yardage threshold in 10 games.

After a long offseason, teams may forget that Henry is a bulldozer in the open field, no matter how he gets the ball. In five of his eight appearances in Week 1, Henry easily surpassed that receiving yardage mark. Three of those games were also Henry’s biggest receiving outputs of the season, including in 2023.