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    • NHC tracks 3 tropical waves in Atlantic, impact Texas unclear
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    NHC tracks 3 tropical waves in Atlantic, impact Texas unclear

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    The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean that could impact the U.S. coastline.

    Two of the waves being tracked have a 30 percent chance of developing into tropical depressions in the next seven days, according to the latest advisory. The third tropical wave, which first appeared in the central Atlantic on NHC’s tropical outlook map at 8 a.m., is expected to enter conditions unfavorable for development later in the week.

    The tropical waves that the Hurricane Center has marked on its tropical watch map are located:

    • Across the Eastern Caribbean Sea
    • In the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
    • In the Central Atlantic Ocean

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    Labor Day 2024 was unusual due to tropical activity

    Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, said Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasting for the Atlantic basin. That puts the peak around Sept. 10, with Labor Day weekend typically a busy weekend for the tropics.

    This year marked the first time in 27 years that a named tropical storm did not develop in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2, AccuWeather reported.

    Tropical Disturbance Tracker: Are They Impacting Texas?

    As of Tuesday morning, it was unclear whether tropical developments could occur in the Lone Star State. Conditions could also change rapidly at the current distance between the Gulf and Texas.

    Here’s what the NHC reported about the tropical waves it tracked:

    Tropical wave 1 causing irregular showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and parts of the central Caribbean Sea.

    This system is expected to move westward and could develop into a tropical depression when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend.

    • Chance of formation within 48 hours: Low, almost 0 percent.
    • Chance of formation during 7 days: Low, 30 percent.

    Tropical wave 2 Irregular showers and thunderstorms develop over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

    Conditions are forecast to become slightly more favorable for development and a tropical depression may develop later this week as the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

    This system could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to parts of Cape Verde within a day or two.

    • Chance of formation within 48 hours: Low, 20 percent.
    • Chance of formation during 7 days: Low, 30 percent.

    Tropical wave 3 is currently located in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

    Slow development is possible over the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward.

    However, by the end of the week, conditions are expected to be unfavorable for further development.

    • Chance of formation within 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of formation during 7 days: Low, 10 percent.

    Will a tropical wave become Hurricane Francine?

    It’s too early to tell if there will be any impact to Texas, but AccuWeather forecasters warned that near-record water temperatures bring the potential for rapid intensification of any named storm that forms. Residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the system.

    Forecasters are urging all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. The advice is especially important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

    Forecasters have previously warned that there could be as many as 30 named storms this season — double the average of 14 — as they expect the oceans to fully transition into La Niña by fall. But after a relatively quiet August, experts have issued a new forecast with a slightly brighter outlook, the Florida Times-Union reported.

    Still, the season will likely be more active than normal.

    “AccuWeather hurricane experts now estimate that 20-23 named storms will likely develop,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

    How many named storms have occurred in 2024?

    So far in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been five named storms:

    • Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall along the Texas coast in June 2024, causing some flooding. Impact to the region was less than initially predicted.
    • Hurricane Beryl: On July 8, a Category 1 hurricane tore across the Texas coast near Matagorda, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spinoffs.
    • Tropical Storm Chris: Caused heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Mexico in early July.
    • Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the East Coast, killing at least 10 people.
    • Hurricane Ernesto: Hits Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hits Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect deaths.

    What is La Nina?

    La Niña – “little girl” in Spanish – is the climate phenomenon described when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than the long-term average. El Niño – “little boy” in Spanish, her brother – is a climate phenomenon that occurs when those waters are warmer than normal.

    The cooler temperatures at Earth’s surface could lead to warmer, drier weather in the southern US and the potential for a “hyperactive” hurricane season in the Atlantic this year.

    Hurricane Storm Tracker: View Active Storms in the Atlantic Ocean

    Weather Alerts and Warnings for Texas

    A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

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