Think of the chaos that ensues.

On Monday, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will play a doubleheader to determine not only their own playoff fate, but that of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rain from Hurricane Helene wiped out two games between Atlanta and New York last week in what should have been a monumental three-game showdown. Instead, the final two games were botched, leaving the entire National League wildcard picture up in the air.

There was a scenario that would have made such makeup games statistically moot, likely leading to their cancellation. Instead, a loss in Atlanta was combined with wins over New York and Arizona in the finals planned Sunday’s match day left all three teams effectively tied in the standings. And so the shakiest scenario — a season-deciding twin bill sandwiched between Game 162 on Sunday and Game 1 of the wild-card round on Tuesday — has become a reality.

Let’s put a stop to the madness and preview what is sure to be an unforgettable day in baseball.

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How did we get here?

Mother Nature is the simple answer. Rain in Georgia last week made Truist Park unplayable. The league could have forced the Braves and Mets to play at a neutral site, but chose not to. The league certainly hoped that the results of the final weekend of play would make playing the doubleheader on Monday unnecessary. If the Diamondbacks hadn’t stormed back for 11 runs on Sunday after going down early against the Padres, MLB would have gotten its wish. Arizona would have been eliminated with a loss, sending New York and Atlanta to the October tournament.

A Braves victory on Sunday would have triggered perhaps the most unsavory scenario, in which Atlanta would have clinched a wild-card spot but would still have had to play New York twice on Monday because the Mets would have had to win both to advance . and eliminate the D-backs.

Fortunately, it didn’t happen that way. Yet we are left with enough chaos.

What scenarios are at play?

There are three possible outcomes: the Mets could be swept, the Braves could be swept, or the two clubs could split the doubleheader.

If a team wins both games on Monday, it will join Arizona in the playoffs, with the loser of the doubleheader going home for the winter. A split between New York and Atlanta would propel both teams into the playoffs and wrap up the Diamondbacks, even though all three teams would have identical records. That’s because both the Mets and Braves have a tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks.

If the Mets and Braves were to split the doubleheader, Atlanta would be the No. 5 seed and New York would be the No. 6 seed, based on Atlanta winning the season series between the two. The Braves would then head to San Diego to take on the Padres, while the Mets would return to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.

If a team goes 2-0 on Monday, that club, be it New York or Atlanta, would head to San Diego as the No. 5 seed, while Arizona would play Milwaukee as the No. 6 seed in a rematch of last night’s wild game year. card round.

In other words:

• Atlanta comes in with a win. The Braves can only be the No. 5 seed.

• New York comes in with a win. If the Mets win one Monday, they will be number six. If they win both, they will be the No. 5 seed.

• Arizona enters if Atlanta or New York sweeps the doubleheader. The D-backs can only be the No. 6 seed.

Doesn’t that create a bizarre set of stimuli?

Yes. The winner of Game 1 on Monday will clinch a playoff spot with that victory, making Game 2 irrelevant for that team. Conversely, the team that loses Game 1 faces a win-or-go-home situation in Game 2.

That means it behooves the winner of Game 1 to (1) lose Game 2 as quickly as possible and (2) do so while relying on the least important group of players available. And that’s understandable, given the excessive travel involved and the zero days off between this doubleheader and the start of the playoffs on Tuesday.

For example, if the Mets win Game 1, it would be pointless for them to use flame-throwing closer Edwin Díaz in Game 2. If he did, he would be more taxed for a Tuesday playoff game. And similar to what can happen on a breakout day during the regular season, there’s a chance the Game 1 winner’s hitters will swing early and often to keep Game 2 moving along.

Who’s going to pitch?

The Braves have repeatedly said that likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale will only start in an elimination game. As such, Atlanta plans to roll out Spencer Schwellenbach in the opener and use Sale in Game 2 only if they lose Game 1. Sure, the Braves would love to eliminate their division rivals – and vice versa – but grudges are less motivating or important. then, you know, throwing Chris Sale into Game 1 of a playoff series.

The Mets will likely use a similar strategy, with backend starter Tylor Megill starting Game 1 and frontline pitcher Luis Severino waiting in the wings for Game 2, if necessary. That makes a confrontation between Sale and Severino extremely unlikely.

Unfortunately, all of these factors create a huge disadvantage for the Diamondbacks, who will be sitting in front of the TV on Monday, waiting and hoping.

For the rest of us, it means a bonus day of high-stakes baseball, a day with some of the most bizarre possible outcomes in recent memory.