When the Jets sleepwalked their way through a frustrating loss to the Vikings in London on Sunday, I thought they might try to reset their season and recapture the optimism they held in the offseason by trading for wide receiver Davante Adams. I underestimated their desperation. On Tuesday, Jets ownership shockingly decided to fire coach Robert Saleh after the team’s 2-3 start while promoting defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to be interim coach. At this point, Fireman Ed should be looking over his shoulder.

The timing of the move is bizarre. The Jets have been disappointing, but they’re still 2-3 and will be in first place in the AFC East if they beat the Bills on Monday night. As far as I can find, the last time a coach was fired with a .400 or better winning percentage during the first half of the regular season for on-field performance was 1961, when Lou Holtz was fired after a 2-3 start by the Boston Patriots. (Jon Gruden resigned from the Raiders after a 3-2 start in 2021 because of reports that emails he wrote over a 10-year period included racist, misogynistic and anti-gay language.)

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Furthermore, the defense has been the strength of the Jets, who rank fifth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play. Ulbrich undoubtedly deserves some credit for that side of the football as the defensive playcaller, but Saleh’s work in San Francisco from 2017 through 2020 makes it clear he’s a hugely important part of the defensive braintrust. Firing the defensive-minded coach in a scenario in which the offense is clearly lagging behind the defense makes this move even more curious.

And that, of course, brings Aaron Rodgers into the fold. Even before the team traded for the veteran quarterback in spring 2023, the Jets had clearly reshaped elements of the organization in his image. They hired Nathaniel Hackett as their offensive coordinator. They signed Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Tim Boyle in free agency. Now, the organization has fired the head coach, a week after Saleh expressed concerns about whether the team was ready for Rodgers’ cadence and Rodgers responded by suggesting the team should hold players accountable. It appears Saleh might have been the one held accountable instead.

The Jets rank 22nd in EPA per play on the offensive side of the ball. They have more turnovers (four) than touchdowns (two) on offense over the past two weeks. Is Saleh really the problem with this team? Can firing him fix New York’s woes and save its season? Was this the right time to make this move? Let’s take a closer look at Tuesday’s stunning decision, to get a sense of what the Jets are thinking and what it actually might do to their hopes of living up to lofty preseason expectations over the rest of the season.

Jump to a section:
Will this move really fix the Jets’ issues?
Isn’t Saleh responsible for the offense too?
Were there other issues under Saleh’s purview?
Should the Jets have made this move?
Are they actually a bad team?
Should they trade for Davante Adams?

Does firing Saleh fix the Jets’ problems?

I don’t think so, for a variety of reasons. Let’s start with what I laid out Monday as the biggest issue facing the Jets right now. Hackett’s offense looks to be static and uninspired through five games. New York is using play-action and pre-snap motion at some of the league’s lowest rates, the latter of which aligns with past concerns Rodgers has expressed about his offenses. The Jets have struggled to deal with pass pressures in protection, leading to a scenario in which the Broncos took down Rodgers for a fourth-and-10 sack late in their Week 4 victory before the Vikings used a virtually identical pressure off the weak side to generate Andrew Van Ginkel’s pick-six and another third-down sack in the first half:

New column ($): The Jets and 49ers are off to 2-3 starts. What’s gone wrong? Including how the Jets were picked apart three times by the same pressure against the Broncos and Vikings for two drive-ending sacks and the Andrew van Ginkel pick-sixhttps://t.co/b2GtBCZcEl pic.twitter.com/r1W12zsPa7

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 7, 2024

Is Saleh responsible for those problems? Not really. A defensive-minded head coach isn’t going to be the one installing pass protections, building sight adjustments and hot reads into the offensive playbook, and making week-to-week offensive changes during the regular season. An offensive-minded head coach might be responsible for the offensive architecture, taking over more of those responsibilities if the offense is struggling. Saleh, though, wouldn’t be expected to take on that sort of work given his background, and firing him won’t address those issues.

It’s clear this offense is built to Rodgers’ specifications and preferences, both in terms of style and scheme. The Jets have not made changes to address their weaknesses, likely because those changes would be at odds with what their quarterback believes he does best.

Isn’t Saleh responsible for the offense as the head coach?

He’s certainly being held responsible given the firing, but again, who has control here? It’s fair to criticize a head coach if his decision to hire a particular offensive coordinator doesn’t pan out. As good of a coach as Mike Tomlin has been with the Steelers, the arguments he was at least partly responsible for the team’s 2023 offensive struggles with Matt Canada at the helm were legitimate. If the Jets were frustrated by Saleh after his work with former offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, who was fired after the 2022 season, that would be one thing.

Do you believe the Jets hired Hackett as their offensive coordinator in January 2023, weeks after Hackett was fired by Denver, because Saleh wanted to get the jump on all the other teams who were desperate to bring in a guy coming off one of the worst head-coaching seasons in NFL history? Or do you think the organization hired him because it was trying to sell itself to Rodgers as a potential destination a couple months later? This is a rhetorical question.

One of the reasons we don’t see firings like this so early in the season is that teams are almost always willing to sacrifice coordinators before they make a head-coaching move. The Jets had no reason to fire Ulbrich, who has done great work with the defense. This would normally be a spot in which a team expecting to win a championship would make changes to the offensive infrastructure. If it had an offensive-minded head coach, it likely would change the playcaller. It might fire the offensive coordinator and promote someone else into that role or hire a veteran playcaller from outside the building if it was comfortable with somebody else’s offense.

Hackett has looked overmatched when placed in the role of playcaller or lead offensive architect. His offenses have ranked 25th or worse in DVOA six times in seven seasons at the helm, with a 15th-ranked finish for the 2017 Jaguars as the lone exception. When Rodgers tore his Achilles in September 2023, the injury came on a play in which the Jets were using cut blocks to try to slow down the pass rush, a concept Rodgers reportedly said he didn’t like because it forced him to get the ball out quickly. Hackett called for quick-game concepts with cut blocks twice during Rodgers’ four-play season in 2023.

This season hasn’t been much better. I’ve already highlighted the Jets’ inability to deal with overload pressures to Rodgers’ blind side, something that every NFL team should have answers for in its pass protections, especially after a blitz costs it on a fourth-and-10. The offense repeatedly seems to rely on isolation and go routes as solutions in key moments, expecting Rodgers to make perfect throws and be on the same page with his receivers at all times. That hasn’t worked, as we saw when he threw an interception to an unexpecting Mike Williams to seal the loss to the Vikings.

On the other hand, Hackett happens to be good friends with Rodgers from the time the two spent together in Green Bay (2019-2021), which the Jets have repeatedly prioritized over making the best possible decisions for their franchise. In any other organization around the league, given Saleh’s work in rebuilding what had been the league’s worst defense and Hackett’s struggles to get the most out of Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and the rest of the offense, this would be a time to make a change at offensive coordinator. Instead, Saleh is the one paying for the slow start.

Were there other issues under Saleh’s purview?

Of course. This isn’t a perfect team by any means, although I’d argue this move likely wouldn’t have happen if Greg Zuerlein hit a 50-yard field goal with 51 seconds to go against the Broncos and the Jets pulled out what would have been a 12-10 victory. Firing a coach this early in the season one game out of first place is virtually unprecedented. Had the Jets won against Denver and Saleh came out of the London game with a 3-2 record, we wouldn’t be having the same conversations, even though many of the underlying issues worrying the Jets would be exactly the same.

I’ve seen two complaints pop up most often from Jets fans as arguments for Saleh’s dismissal. Let’s address those and see if they’re likely to be fixed.

Penalties. Fans are understandably frustrated seeing yellow on the turf. Star cornerback Sauce Gardner was penalized three times in the first half against the Vikings, with Minnesota earning five first downs via penalty. That’s the second-most any team has been afforded in any game this season. The Jets also handed the Titans four first downs via penalty in their 24-17 win in Week 2.

Overall, the Jets have committed 45 penalties, which ranks seventh-worst in the league. They’re fifth-worst in penalty yardage. That alone doesn’t disqualify them from being a good team, though: The Ravens rank 30th in penalty yardage, while the Texans are last. A better metric might be EPA lost on penalties, where the Jets rank 31st, ahead of only the Ravens.

There are reasons to believe the Jets have had to deal with some flag-friendly refs, though, as their opponents have handed them back 19.1 EPA on penalties, the 10th-highest mark for any team. They rank 22nd in penalty margin, 25th in penalty yardage margin and 25th in penalty EPA margin. Those aren’t great numbers, but nobody in the NFL is getting fired for ranking 25th in penalty yardage margin.

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Why did the Jets decide to fire Robert Saleh now?

Adam Schefter breaks down what went into the Jets’ decision in firing Robert Saleh in the middle of the season.

You could argue Saleh doesn’t control whether the opposing team commits penalties and point out that the defense, where I’m happy to assign him some portion of the credit, is more to blame here. And while Saleh has pointed out the issues with cadence causing false starts on offense, the more damaging penalties have come on the defensive side of the ball. The Jets rank last in EPA generated on defensive penalties this season, just ahead of the Lions. Some of that is volume, as they have faced 50 more defensive snaps than Detroit, but the point stands: The Jets have committed meaningful penalties on defense.

The problem is that penalty EPA is mostly random from year to year. The Jets were 15th in defensive penalty EPA in 2023 and 16th the season before. In 2022, the Seahawks ranked last in defensive penalty EPA after five weeks. Over the remainder of the season, they were the second-best unit in terms of avoiding defensive penalty EPA. They ranked last in defensive penalties through five games and had the fifth-fewest from that point forward.

Since the start of 2022, the Jets rank 26th in defensive penalties, 30th in defensive penalty yardage and 24th in defensive penalty EPA. They’ve also fielded the league’s best defense by points allowed per drive and EPA per play, both of which would reflect the impact of those penalties. Every team would happily trade a few too many penalties for the league’s best defense. Some teams revel in that combination; the 2012-15 Legion of Boom-era Seahawks ranked 27th in defensive penalties, 27th in defensive penalty yardage and 25th in defensive penalty EPA and did just fine.

It’s also unclear how firing Saleh will stop the defense from committing penalties. Is Ulbrich going to do a better job of stopping the penalties now that he has expanded responsibilities? Is Rodgers going to stop using the aggressive hard counts that led to a false start on a fourth-and-1 at the Denver 1-yard line in the Broncos game? History suggests penalties can be random and haven’t made much of an impact in stopping the Jets from fielding a great defense. There’s no way this should be anything close to a fireable offense.

Getting off to slow starts. The Jets haven’t looked great early in games this season, especially on offense. They scored one touchdown and looked lost in the first half against the Titans before turning things around. They only managed two field goals in the first half against the Broncos. Then they went down 17-0 in the first half against the Vikings, including the aforementioned Rodgers pick-six to Van Ginkel, before eventually launching a comeback.

Does Saleh struggle to have the Jets appropriately prepared for games? It’s a fair question. I would argue some of the slow starts have been a matter of selective memory. The offense looked best in the first quarter of the game running its scripted plays against the 49ers in Week 1, taking an early 7-3 lead before struggling afterward. They scored two touchdowns in the first half against the Patriots in Week 3. While they only scored six points in the first half against the Broncos, that game was played in dismal weather conditions that led Bo Nix to have the least productive first half in modern NFL history on the other side of the field.

Those are all offensive complaints, too. The defense ranks fourth in EPA per play and third in points allowed per drive during the first quarter this season. Expand that out to the first half and they’re fifth by both metrics. To say the offense has struggled to get going early in games means Saleh also has to get credit for having the defense playing at a high level early in contests.

Is this a long-term issue? Go back to the start of 2022, when Saleh’s defense started to play at a high level. The Jets have gotten better, by scoring margin, as the game goes along. They rank 30th in point differential in the opening quarter, improving to 24th in the second quarter, 22nd in the third quarter and third in the fourth quarter.

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Shannon Sharpe: Jets firing Robert Saleh a bad look for Aaron Rodgers

Shannon Sharpe points to the problems Aaron Rodgers has caused the Jets in the wake of the team firing coach Robert Saleh.

Again, though, which side of the ball has these problems? Since 2022, the Jets rank seventh in EPA per play on defense in the first quarter. They’re 31st on offense. They’re last in EPA per play in the first half on offense and third-best on defense. Saleh has had no trouble getting the defense ready to play early in contests, which suggests there’s not an issue with the coach failing to appropriately prepare.

The offense has struggled early, and while there could be some intangible factor we don’t see that only impacts Saleh’s ability to prepare the offense, Occam’s razor would tell us that’s because the offense hasn’t had good coaching or players. (The fourth-quarter heroics are probably partly a product of the Jets entering the fourth quarter trailing by an average of 4.5 points per game, the third-worst mark in the league.) Saleh deserves some of the blame for those concerns, especially because LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for 17 of those 39 games and Saleh helped choose the guy who was playing quarterback for most of that stretch, but firing him for those offensive issues now seems bizarre.

Should the Jets have fired Saleh?

Not now. If they wanted to make a move, the time to do so would have been last offseason, when they were coming off another disappointing season and could have justified making more significant changes. They could have justified it after the 2022 season, when Saleh stuck with quarterback Zach Wilson for too long and had more responsibility for the choices they made with the offensive coaching staff.

Making a move during either offseason would have crucially allowed the Jets to make a more significant shift with their coaching staff. If Saleh was really the problem, they would have had a much larger pool of potential candidates. In 2023, they could have hired DeMeco Ryans or traded for Sean Payton. This past spring, they could have targeted an offensive-minded coach such as Bobby Slowik or Ben Johnson to work with Rodgers or gone after one of a series of highly-regarded defensive minds in Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll or Mike Vrabel.

It’s unclear whether the Jets would have landed any of those options, but whomever they hired would have had a full offseason to implement their preferred scheme, work with the players and attempt to build a championship-caliber culture. That’s the only hope a team has of massively improving its coaching performance in the course of a single year. The Jets didn’t make that move, clearly, because they thought Saleh’s impact on the defense was worth whatever he didn’t bring to the offensive side of the table and were willing to believe a healthy Rodgers would fix the offense.

Now, with the offense still struggling, the Jets are firing Saleh before midseason. The best offensive minds in football, the guys who could have transformed this offense, are under contract elsewhere. Belichick, Carroll and Vrabel are still available, but the only one who might be able to step in and run Saleh’s scheme overnight is Carroll. Guess who Saleh molded his coaching style around?

There just aren’t many examples a veteran coach with no ties to a building taking over a struggling team in midseason and leading them on a deep playoff run. That can happen in baseball and basketball, sports where the schemes aren’t quite as complex, but football requires too much preparation over the spring and summer before the games actually start taking place in the fall. The only example I can find would be Don Coryell taking over the 1978 Chargers after a 1-3 start and going 8-4 the rest of the way.

Instead, the Jets are hoping the solution to their problems is replacing Saleh with … Saleh’s assistant. Ulbrich has never been a head coach at any level. Like Saleh, he deserves credit for what he has done with the New York defense. It’s unclear how he’s going to fix the offensive woes. Losing a significant defensive voice and promoting one into what is theoretically a broader role as head coach could also cause the defense to slip, which would create a new problem while making a half-hearted effort to solve an old one.

If Ulbrich’s empowered to move on from Hackett, it would be a major change for the better, but even that would require the Jets to find a coordinator who can step in and retool the offense on the fly. Former Raiders offensive coordinator Todd Downing is on staff in New York, but Downing wasn’t successful in that role during his time in Oakland and Tennessee. It’s also unclear whether Downing would have the ability to fundamentally change the offense without Rodgers’ approval.

The issues with the Jets are either under the purview of Rodgers and Hackett — offensive preparation and architecture — or problems that haven’t actually held them back in the big picture, like penalties. I don’t believe firing Saleh tangibly does anything to fix those problems, although they might get better as the year goes along, if only because Rodgers grows more comfortable with his receivers.

Are the Jets a bad team?

They’re closer to average than bad. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Jets as the league’s 13th-best team. They’ve outscored their opponents by eight points. DVOA, on the other hand, has them 22nd. They’ve played the league’s sixth-easiest schedule so far, although they only have to face the 11th-toughest slate from here on out, per FPI.

The simplest way to frame it is the Jets have two comfortable victories, two messy defeats and had the fifth game hinge on a 50-yard field goal, a shot kickers have hit about 75% of the time this season. Even acknowledging the field was wet after what had been a brutal rainstorm, the Jets would still expect Zuerlein to make that kick. I’m not going to draw massively different conclusions about the Jets and their underlying level of play moving forward because he missed and they’re 2-3 as opposed to the ones I would draw if he had hit and they were 3-2, regardless of what Bill Parcells says about your record.

Should the Jets trade for Davante Adams?

Absolutely. I laid out why they were going to consider an Adams move in my column last week, and they’re clearly even more desperate to go all-in after making the decision to dump Saleh now as opposed to after the season. Adams is the best chance they have of actually improving the real problem with this team. The offense needs someone Rodgers trusts, someone who can win one-on-one, who knows where Rodgers wants to go with the ball in tight quarters and who can read Rodgers’ mind on scramble drills.

The most likely scenario is the Jets trade for Adams, improve as a result and the decision to dump Saleh looks vindicated. I’m not sure one has anything to do with the other. Saleh deserved criticism for the Zach Wilson fiasco, and if the Jets wanted to move on from him for his role in that mistake, it would have been a little harsh but understandable. Firing him now, five games into a season where Rodgers and an offense in his desired image has failed to live up to unrealistic expectations? That’s desperation, not genius.