That system has pushed a front into the Plains that currently stretches from the central Dakotas to eastern New Mexico. With the system moving northeast over the next 48 hours, the front will be difficult to push east. Instead, it will become largely stationary. The northern end of the front will move into the Upper Midwest, but the southern end will be stuck in the midpoint of the Central and Southern Plains.

Scattered showers will develop as the front moves through, but overall these showers will not be heavy. Models suggest that rainfall amounts will be less than 0.50 inches, although a few thunderstorms could increase these totals in the Upper Midwest through September 20.

Then things get a little more interesting. There’s an upper-level trough digging into the West Coast. And instead of moving north into Canada like its predecessor, it’s going to be able to travel directly east across the U.S. this weekend and into next week. As it moves into the Plains, it’s going to form a low on the stalled front, and then coalesce into a system that should bring more widespread rainfall to the Plains over the weekend, and then through the Midwest early next week.

Models are still struggling with how much rain to produce and where exactly the heaviest rainfall will occur. A look at a model ensemble can help us find the most likely areas where the heavy rain will occur. According to the European model ensembles (the EPS), the most likely areas are in Nebraska and Iowa with an extension into northern Kansas and Missouri. Amounts from last night’s model run indicated 2-3 inches of rain in that area. In contrast, the U.S. GFS ensembles (GEFS) generally have less intense rainfall. They still have an area of ​​2-3 inches, but it is smaller in extreme eastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa. However, the GEFS spreads the more moderate rainfall of 1-2 inches further north through Minnesota and Wisconsin than the EPS. Regardless, it looks like some in the western and central Corn Belt are in for some heavy rain from the storm system that could cause some problems.

Harvest is underway and heavy rains could cause significant delays and potential quality loss. If accompanied by severe storms, which is possible, they could also cause storm damage. At the same time, areas in the north, particularly the Dakotas, Minnesota and western Wisconsin, have completed a significant portion of their corn and soybean harvests and could use some additional rainfall. All of the winter wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest could use some moisture as planting continues to ramp up. While those areas are less likely to experience heavy rain, any rainfall will be important for establishing root systems.

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John Baranick can be reached at [email protected]

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