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    • Hassan Nasrallah is dead: this is how it changes Israel’s war in Lebanon
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    Hassan Nasrallah is dead: this is how it changes Israel’s war in Lebanon

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    The airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 27 is a major change after more than eleven months of war and has the potential to disrupt Iran’s plans and weaken Hezbollah. Here are five ways the strike could impact the war and the region.

    Iran’s most experienced ally targeted

    Hassan Nasrallah was Iran’s most experienced ally in the region. The Hezbollah leader has been key to Iran’s plans in the region for decades. In recent years he had become even more powerful. Iran attempted to unleash a multi-front war against Israel in the aftermath of the October 7 attack. The murdered terrorist leader helped lead that war.

    Nasrallah had emerged as the supreme leader of Iran’s numerous allies. He often hosted Iranian officials, and he also invited representatives of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to Lebanon to coordinate their attacks on the Jewish state. He also tried to rally the Houthis in Yemen to threaten Israel, and he coordinated with Iraqi militias.

    The Hezbollah leader had worked with other key Iranian-backed leaders in the region; in recent years, Iran has seen many of them killed. These include the IRGC’s Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. With these critical leaders off the table, Nasrallah filled more and more shoes. Now those shoes are empty again.

    Hezbollah in disarray

    Hezbollah is in disarray and has suffered numerous losses against its top leadership in recent days. On September 20, the commanders of the Radwan forces were killed. This meant the loss of sixteen critical leaders in the terrorist group. In the following days it also lost the head of its drone unit. The loss of Hassan Nasrallah essentially cuts off the head of the entire organization. It is unclear whether the Lebanon-based terrorist organization had prepared for this scenario.

    A VEHICLE carrying the coffin of a commander of the Iraqi armed group Ktaeb Hezbollah, who was killed on Friday in what the militia called a “Zionist attack” in Damascus, is seen at a funeral in Baghdad on Sunday. (credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

    Hezbollah still has a vast array of weapons, including rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and precision-guided munitions. However, there will be chaos and disorder without a clear chain of command or leadership. The group has struggled to respond to Israel’s attacks since the pagers exploded on September 17. She has seen herself suffer one unprecedented blow after another; this keeps the terrorist group off balance.

    Hezbollah and Iran now know that Israel means business

    Israel’s willingness to call Hezbollah’s bluff and go all-in with airstrikes in Beirut illustrates how serious Israel is in pursuing its goals in the North. The Israeli cabinet approved in mid-September the addition of the goal of returning residents to northern communities to the war’s objectives.

    Israel then immediately proceeded to cut Hezbollah into pieces. The terrorist group did not expect this. It believed that Israel would remain on the defensive. Hezbollah also likely believed reports in Israel that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, known as a hawk on Hezbollah, would be removed. Instead, Gallant has presided over the physical blows Hezbollah is now suffering.

    Hezbollah became complacent and accustomed to attacking Israel. Now it sees how serious Israel is. However, the terrorist group cannot climb out of the tree. The country claims that it will continue to support Hamas and that it cannot stop that support without shame. At the same time, the country does not have strong leadership that can make bold decisions.

    Hezbollah expected to dictate the terms to Israel

    Hezbollah believed that it was the driving force behind this war. The country had been attacking Israel for eleven months. It believed that Jerusalem would be pressured into a ceasefire and that the Jewish state would then stop fighting in the north. The terrorist group also expected to keep its arsenal largely intact. It did not expect that Israel would force the country to go on the defensive. The group was not ready for this and ill-prepared for this kind of war.

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    Hezbollah had always expected that it would choose the time and place in any war with Israel. She also expected to be able to take the initiative. Now the plans have been destroyed and so many critical commanders have been lost that it will take some time to return to normal and get itself in order. Because we expected the war to be of low intensity and to end with Hezbollah’s victory, its arrogance seems to have brought the organization to the brink of collapse.

    Hamas and Iran’s other allies now see Israel’s resolve

    Hamas had expected to survive this war and continue to control Gaza. It saw Israel waging a cautious war in the coastal enclave, and expected that a ceasefire would eventually be forced on Israel. Hamas was happy to see Hezbollah pressuring Israel from the north. For 11 months, the Gaza-based terrorist group that carried out the October 7 massacre grew accustomed to Hezbollah being a strong ally, capable of threatening Israel with 150,000 rockets.

    Now Hamas sees that Hezbollah is no match for Israel’s attacks. It also shows that Hezbollah’s missile threat may have diminished. The now eviscerated terrorist group has rarely been able to fire more than a few hundred missiles a day, far fewer than the thousands they are estimated to be capable of firing.

    Hamas must now wonder whether it will soon suffer similar blows as its northern partner in terrorism. Its leaders, such as Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa, have also been eliminated. Hamas assumed that it could stay in power simply by continuing to exist.

    Now the country has seriously weakened the resolve of Israel and its vital ally in Lebanon. Hamas must now ask itself whether its decision to attack on October 7 has turned out to be a disaster for itself and the Iranian group of proxies in the region. Instead of an endless threat to Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah have now seen the Jewish state take the initiative and succeed in subjugating them.



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