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Hail, devastating winds and tornadoes possible in Sioux Falls on Monday
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Hail, devastating winds and tornadoes possible in Sioux Falls on Monday

The Sioux Falls area could experience severe weather late Monday afternoon and late into the night, according to the National Weather Service.

While a heat warning is in effect for the area from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. Monday, severe storms are expected between 4 p.m. and 1 a.m., bringing large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. The greatest risk is between 5 p.m. and 10 or 11 p.m., the NWS said.

“Severe storms are expected in a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward into Wisconsin Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours,” according to a statement from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. “Large to very large hail and bands of strong, potentially damaging winds are expected, primarily from South Dakota to Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong winds and hail are also expected in southern New England.”

Such anticipated late-summer activity has caught the attention of renowned storm chaser Reed Timmer, who announced via social media on Sunday that he would be traveling to South Dakota to document the outcome.

According to the NWS’s last update at 4:30 p.m. Sunday, meteorologists still had little confidence in the exact timing of the storms, while certainty about the type of severe storms that would move through the area was “only moderate.”

The NWS described two likely scenarios in that update, but indicated that the actual weather phenomenon could play out somewhere in between.

What are the scenarios?

Scenario #1:

The NWS predicts two rounds of storms could develop, with the first in southwest Minnesota in the afternoon and evening. The second rounds could move from central South Dakota in the evening and overnight.

Scenario #2:

The first round is expected to hit in the afternoon hours, directly over the Sioux Falls area, and the storms are expected to be stronger and move through the area faster than the second round. The second round is expected to hit in the evening hours and should have less impact, the NWS said.

What is the total risk?

According to the NWS, this storm system has a potential for large hailstones 2 inches or larger in diameter, wind gusts of 70 mph or greater, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes.

Continue to monitor the Argus Leader and refresh this page for the latest news on storms developing on Monday.