The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have played two of the tougher schedules in the NFL so far this season, with both teams in decent or better shape ahead of their big Week 5 matchup.

The 3-1 Bucs bounced back from a tough home loss to strangle the Eagles last Sunday. The Falcons put together their second game-winning drive of the season in the final minute to even their record at 2-2.

The Bucs have led the NFC South for the past four seasons and are now in pole position ahead of Thursday’s game in Atlanta. A year ago, the teams split their meets, with the road team winning both.

But the Bucs are preparing to face a much different Atlanta team than the one they’ve seen before. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins ​​is off to a lukewarm start, but has delivered in some key spots and spread the ball well. The Falcons also have room to grow offensively.

Atlanta is 1-0 in the division, but 1-2 at home so far. Thursday will provide a big opportunity to even out their mark at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after two narrow losses there earlier against the Steelers and Chiefs.

Every Falcons game this season went down to the last minute. Will we get another down-to-earth thriller on Thursday?

Here are four things to watch for when the Buccaneers visit the Falcons on Thursday night on Prime Video and NFL+:

1) Bucs still looking for consistency on offense. Baker Mayfield is on pace for a 4,000+ yard, 30+ TD season, and Chris Godwin is on pace for his best season since his breakout year of 2019. The Bucs have also found a hidden gem in rookie RB Bucky Irving, who led the team in rush yards in three of the first four games. But between the strong offensive showings of Week 1 and Week 4, the Bucs struggled at times to move the ball against the Lions and Broncos, scoring just seven points in the home loss to Denver. Right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) has not played in the last three games and due to the short week he will be out on Thursday. The same goes for rookie WR Jalen McMillan, who missed last week’s game. While Tampa has been moving the chains pretty well overall, they are a bit lacking in the big-play department. The Bucs have also had some issues in pass protection, with Mayfield being sacked 15 times in four games. If they struggle to protect the Falcons, who rank 32nd in sack percentage, the problem could be bigger than we realized.

2) Falcons could stand to get Kyle Pitts going. The Falcons will honor Matt Ryan at halftime of Thursday’s game, inducting him into the team’s Ring of Honor. Maybe Cousins ​​can get in Ryan’s ear at some point, if only to help solve the Pitts riddle. Pitts looked like a budding star in 2021 with Ryan as his quarterback, catching 68 passes for 1,028 yards in his rookie season, but it took him the next two seasons to match that number of yards. The new staff has had just as much trouble getting him the ball consistently as the old staff. Pitts has eight catches (on 15 targets) for 105 yards and a touchdown this season. Nearly half of those yards came on a 50-yard play against the Chiefs, where Pitts was tackled at the 1-yard line. That was a glimpse of a big game, but they were too far and few and far between. The Bucs have defended tight ends quite well this season, allowing just 16 catches for 152 yards and no touchdowns, although Pitts had two of his better games last season against Todd Bowles’ defense, which returns many pieces of that unit. The Falcons would love nothing more than for Pitts to break out in primetime in a major league game, which would open up more options for Cousins ​​and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

3) Tampa’s defense needs to keep the pass-rush momentum going. The Buccaneers defense didn’t set the world on fire in the first part of the season, but it deserves credit for holding on despite some injuries. Todd Bowles’ unit perked up against the Eagles, sacking Jalen Hurts six times on Sunday. That was an important development after a subpar performance against the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix. The Bucs also let the Lions move up and down the field with ease in Week 2, but a great performance in the red zone (Detroit was 1 for 7 there) helped them escape with a win. It will be interesting to see if Sunday’s pass-rush success translates to this game. The Eagles were short on the offensive line, but so are the Falcons, with center Drew Dalman on injured reserve and RT Kaleb McGary potentially out for another game after missing Sunday. Their replacements held up well against the Saints last week, but the Bucs’ front seemed revitalized with the return of NT Vita Vea. Cousins’ new center Ryan Neuzil could have his hands full all night.

4) Falcons need to make more game-changing defensive plays. You could safely describe defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake’s defense as a unit that bends but doesn’t break. They generally defend the pass quite well, especially downfield, allowing only four plays of 20 yards or longer all season. Yes, you can complete passes against them (73.5% completions allowed), and the Falcons’ run defense (145.5 yards per game allowed) can tighten up. But the biggest problems were redundancies and turnovers. The Falcons rank last in the NFL with just four sacks, continuing a long-standing problem even with the addition of Matthew Judon, who has an 8.1% pressure rate, via Next Gen Stats – his lowest yet and with the first. four games ever in his career. Grady Jarrett remains a force inside, but he is less than a year removed from a torn ACL. Atlanta has also forced just four turnovers in four games. After two wins, the Falcons are plus-2 in turnover margin, with Troy Andersen’s 47-yard pick-six being a huge turning point on Sunday; in their two losses they are minus-3. Opponents have controlled the clock against Atlanta, averaging 35:28 in possession. Forcing turnovers is crucial, but it will be even more difficult against a Bucs team that has only committed three turnovers and with Andersen out with a knee injury.