Fantasy football managers think about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It’s fantasy football. Make practical decisions about lineups, trades, and food for the tailgating party and everything will work out fine. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn’t believe what fantasy managers think about. Well, you are (I assume) a fantasy manager. Okay, maybe.

• Don’t overthink whether to draft Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and/or 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk and others of their kind who bring news: These lads have had remarkable, if sometimes controversial, summers as they chased shiny new contracts. But there are plenty of reasons why these talented players – and their management – felt safe to act in this way. They were always going to play. Le’Veon Bell once stood tall and ruined his career, but everyone learned a lesson from that foolish drama. Chase and Aiyuk didn’t. And neither did Cowboys CeeDee Lamb (paid) and Dak Prescott (well, not yet). Doesn’t matter. They’re all playing, and anyone who talks about how little practice and workouts they had is missing the point. You probably don’t leave these guys in Week 1.

• Don’t rely solely on predictions: Prescott plays the Browns on Sunday and is projected at a fairly low 16.4 PPR points, a fraction below what his opponent, Browns QB Deshaun Watson, is expected to score. (Giants QB Daniel Jones is also projected at 16.7 points. Good luck with that.) The Browns have earned the often-dubious distinction of being the best D/ST in ESPN’s live draft averages (especially since that’s where ESPN ranks them), so there’s concern that Prescott could stumble. It could happen. It probably won’t. Prescott topped 16.4 PPR points in 10 of the final 12 games last season and led the league in touchdown passes. If anyone is motivated to prove a point this season, it’s him. Watson hasn’t played well in years. There’s no way I would bench Prescott for Watson.

• Trust your intuition: ESPN Fantasy offers expert forecasts, rankings, columns, more rankings, an award-winning podcast and just about everything except tailgating recipes — hmmm, why don’t we? — and you can choose to use that information as much or as little as you like. It can lead to a lot of thinking. This video recommends this player, while someone on the podcast filters him out. One leaderboardist does this, another does that. Who should we believe? Take a look at your waist. It’s called a gut feeling. It performs several crucial functions, but for our purposes, trust it when deciding who to play and who not to play in fantasy. It’s your team(s). Trust your gut feeling, not mine or anyone else’s.

• Don’t trust Geno Smith over these higher drafted QBs: Another projection oddity is that the Seahawks QB is projected to outscore three of the top seven QB scorers from last season. Again, anything is possible, but it’s worth considering whether to adjust your rankings — or even sign Smith off the waiver wire to do so. Sure, Smith could outscore Prescott, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff this week. He could do it again in Week 2. I’m still not going to put Smith, who was unexpectedly great in 2022 and statistically miserable last season, above these other great quarterbacks just because he gets to play a home game against the Broncos.

• Think about the defense mechanisms, but be agile: Everyone thinks they know which defenses will be great and which will struggle, but it’s all speculation until the games count, and then things can change quickly. The Broncos famously allowed 70 real (non-fantasy) points and 726 yards to the Dolphins in Week 3 of last season. It skewed expectations for the rest of the season. A few weeks later, Denver’s defense went on a streak of allowing 22 or fewer points in eight straight games that no one seemed to be talking about. No, I don’t think the Broncos D/ST is worth watching this week or maybe any week in fantasy, but I’m not going to bet too many players against them just yet. Give it a month. I end up streaming defenses in half my leagues anyway.

• Don’t think too much about the Dolphins RB duo: People also overthink the Dolphins running back situation, in part because of what happened against the Broncos almost a calendar year ago. Rookie The’Von Achane scored 51.3 PPR points that afternoon, while Raheem Mostert delivered 45.2. Mostert, a decade older, enjoyed the superior season, averaging 17.8 PPR points in his 15 games, and I won’t argue over which guy to invest in for dynasty formats. The ridiculously fast Achane averaged 17.3 PPR points, albeit in 11 games. The Dolphins kept his volume in check, with the goal of preventing injuries, but you can’t prevent injuries. Achane is 5-foot-9, maybe 185 pounds. Good luck finding a roster of running backs of that size who have consistently dominated — and stayed on the field — at the NFL level. Achane going six rounds ahead of Mostert in ADP was a fine thought, and automatically benching Mostert as a flex option this week is a similar thought. It’s a timeshare, and both players get to eat.

• Now take a risk with your bank: There are no free weeks until October and most fantasy-relevant options are healthy going into this weekend, so I find it interesting that so many fantasy managers are overthinking their bench options. Take some chances on upside options that you might not be able to acquire heading into Week 2. The Dolphins are a really good example. This offense is built on speed. Achane and Mostert are fast, but durability is an issue. Maybe it’s for a rookie Jaylen Wright also. Still, Wright is listed in less than 25% of ESPN’s standard leagues, and he has a great opportunity ahead of him. Meanwhile, the following wide receivers who are unlikely to be in anyone’s lineup in the first month are listed in more than 70% of standard leagues: Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Marquise Brown (injured), Tyler Lockett and Jerry Jeudy. Plan for weeks off, but not like this.