The recent autumnal air has many of us in the CSRA wondering what the coming season holds. Let’s take a closer look at what we can expect.

What is typical for autumn in the CSRA

To get a better idea of ​​our overall climate, we break down the season by month, looking at average conditions between 1991 and 2020.

• September: We start fall on September 1st with an average high of 33 degrees Celsius and an average low of 21 degrees Celsius. This is normally our wettest month, with an average of 9.2 cm of rain.

• October: The average high cools to 84 degrees, with an average low of 60. Rainfall decreases to an average of 2.55 inches.

• November: Highs continue to drop, averaging 74 degrees at the beginning of the month and cooling to 65 at the end. Lows drop to an average of 46 degrees at the beginning of November, reaching 39 at the end of the month. We see a slight increase in rainfall compared to October, averaging 2.66″.

Atmospheric factors play a role this year

To predict the coming season, we need to consider large-scale atmospheric patterns. We are currently in an ENSO neutral phase, but there is a 66% chance that a weak La Niña will develop this fall, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This could affect our temperatures and precipitation, but its impact may be less pronounced than a stronger La Niña.

It’s also important to note that we are in the midst of a likely active Atlantic hurricane season. While the direct impacts of hurricanes are difficult to predict this far in advance, they have the potential to disrupt typical fall weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall and the potential for cooler temperatures, depending on their path and intensity.

The thinking of the climate prediction center

According to the CPC fall forecast released on August 15, there is a 40 to 50% chance of above-average temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of above-average precipitation in the CSRA.

What the models show

European Model (ECMWF): The ECMWF model also predicts warmer than average temperatures (~60%), driven by high pressure bringing in warm air. This high pressure will likely result in near to slightly below average precipitation.

My view on the outlook for autumn

I lean towards the European model’s prediction of a warmer than average autumn with near to slightly below average precipitation. However, if tropical systems affect our region, that could lead to above average precipitation.

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