The 2024 MLB playoffs are underway—and they’re glorious. Every pitch, every baserunner, and every ball in play ratchets up the tension. At the risk of undercutting some of that tension, our staff gathered on the eve of the division series to offer their predictions for what will happen the rest of the way. Spoilers ahead.

1. What is your boldest MLB playoff prediction?

Zach Kram: The Phillies will be the only team that received a bye to reach the league championship series—a year after the Astros were the only team with a bye to win a postseason round. Discourse about the pros and cons of this still-fairly-new format will grow only more contentious as the best regular-season teams keep losing early in the playoffs.

Ben Lindbergh: That in addition to featuring fewer great teams than we’ve seen in a decade, this October may also feature fewer round-trippers. Five of the six runs the Brewers and Mets combined to score on Thursday crossed the plate via three homers, but that wasn’t reflective of the way this week went: The league’s isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) was .106, down from .116 and .119 in the past two wild-card rounds. MLB experienced something of a power outage late in the regular season, which could be carrying over into October. (It wouldn’t be the first time in recent years that balls seemed to stop flying as far without warning.) That would, in theory, advantage teams that rely less on the long ball (such as the Royals), while hurting teams that depend on dingers (such as the Yankees), even though in general, hitting homers in October is a good way to win.

The graph above, based on info from FanGraphs, is very likely misleading, because offense is always suppressed in the wild-card round, when teams tend to deploy their best pitchers. (The home run rate in this year’s wild-card round wasn’t that different from 2022’s.) Thus, it’s too soon to say this is real—unless you’re trying to be on your boldest behavior.

Bobby Wagner: Someone will throw a no-hitter. Much to the chagrin of myself and droves of baseball fans across the world, at this point in the season, it feels like a miracle when a starting pitcher makes it past the fifth inning. Avoiding the so-called “third time through the order penalty” has become gospel, save for a few elite starters who can stave it off. (Or, in the case of Jacob deGrom, actually get better? Sure.)

That’s why my bold prediction, which is sure to knock you off your feet, is that we will see at least one no-hitter this October. Aside from the Brewers vs. the Mets, offense was somewhat hard to come by in the wild-card round. Whiff rates have been rising like sea levels for decades. We’ve reached somewhat of a perfect storm for pitchers to accomplish this feat, if not for the fact that the manager is giving them a handshake and a slap on the butt to turn it over to the bullpen every fifth inning.

Who’s going to do it, you ask? My money is on Gerrit Cole, one of the last guys willing and able to push his pitch count without compromising the quality of his stuff.

Isaac Levy-Rubinett: The Phillies won’t lose a single game until the World Series.

Anthony Dabbundo: There will be a combined no-hitter in the 2024 playoffs. Because of how teams are deploying so many pitchers and throwing harder than ever, it feels like we could get a great outing from a starter, followed by some hand-wringing that he was pulled too early, followed by a combined no-hitter. We saw one from the Astros in the 2022 World Series, and some inconsistent offenses still left in this field are facing a stable of impressive pitchers.

2. How many combined home runs and steals will Shohei Ohtani accumulate in his first MLB postseason?

Lindbergh: I’ve never doubted Ohtani’s abilities, and I’m not about to begin now. I’m quite familiar with the feeling of doubting Ohtani’s teammates, however, and while his current Los Angeles squad is superior in every respect to his previous ones—for one thing, it’s actually located in Los Angeles—the state of the Dodgers’ rotation is such that their path past the NLDS looks dicey. (Which unit would you rather have: Cease, Darvish, King, and Musgrove, or Yamamoto, Flaherty, Knack, and, um, Buehler?) Could the Bums beat the Dads? Sure, in which case Ohtani’s homers-plus-steals count could easily enter double digits. But I’ll say that despite a strong series from their MVP DH, the Dodgers will once again lose to San Diego, leaving Ohtani with five combined swats and swipes—the same as his single-game high. If only he could also accumulate innings; just wait till next year.

Wagner: Four. I think Shohei Ohtani will not leave this October without a home run. I also think, if things go right for the Padres like many smart people expect them to, Shohei Ohtani will not get a lot of pitches to hit. That’s why I’ll stick to a seemingly paltry prediction of four. One home run, three steals (after being walked a ton).

Levy-Rubinett: The degree of difficulty ratchets up in the playoffs. Pitchers will be more careful with Ohtani, despite the presence of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman behind him. Managers will be more aggressive in hunting favorable matchups, if such a thing exists. Still, I expect the Dodgers to advance past the Padres, giving Ohtani at least several games to follow up on his trailblazing 54-59 regular season. I’ll say nine combined steals and home runs in these playoffs.

Dabbundo: Three. I’m of the belief that the Dodgers’ October run will once again be shorter than most people are expecting, as they’re about to face a more well-rounded Padres team. No one in baseball can compete with the Dodgers offensively, and I’ll say that Ohtani will manage a homer and two steals, but the Dodgers’ lack of pitching depth will be an issue as this series goes deeper. Without Ohtani also on the mound, the Dodgers will play no more than five games this October. And even though they have become a ruthless and efficient baseball machine, their inability to keep pitchers healthy remains a mystery that will cost them in October.

Kram: Only one of each—because the Dodgers’ playoff run will last just four games before the Padres send them home.

3. The breakout star of the 2024 MLB playoffs will be …

Wagner: Seth Lugo. The Royals hurler is Nathan Eovaldi for people who drink herbal tea instead of espresso shots. Thankfully, I drink both with frequency so I can appreciate the finer notes of the reserved and refined Lugo, who I’m predicting to run roughshod over the Yankees with his combination of fastballs up in the zone and devastating high-spin curveballs falling off the table.

Lugo—a tweener reliever/starter who dealt with elbow issues in his time with the Mets—made a gigantic bet on himself to be a top-tier starter by refusing to take a role as a reliever in free agency. I’m sure Kansas City fans are happy to be cashing in on that bet alongside him. Lugo was the sixth best pitcher this season by FanGraphs WAR, and he amassed a truly impressive 206 innings over the year.

His strikeout numbers have taken an expected dip since stepping back into a starting rotation, but he is an incredibly cerebral pitcher who knows what the moment calls for. If he needs to strike out Aaron Judge with the bases loaded, he can do it. If he needs to get Bobby Witt Jr. some fielding practice, he can do it. His versatility translates very well to October.

Kram: This is definitely cheating because he just won the pitching Triple Crown and is about to claim a (likely unanimous) Cy Young award—but be honest, how many national baseball fans had really seen a Tarik Skubal start until he shut out the Astros over six innings on Tuesday? Before this season, Skubal had never been an All-Star, never received any awards votes, and never been worth more than 2 bWAR in a season. And pitching for a lackluster Tigers team, he’d never received much national attention. (I nailed my prediction that he’d win the Cy Young this year, though!)

Lindbergh: Jackson Merrill, Padres. I was tempted to take Edgardo Henriquez, the 22-year-old Dodgers reliever who started the season in A-ball, made his major league debut on September 24, totaled 3 1/3 innings, and threw two of the three hardest pitches delivered by a Dodger this year, all while quickly becoming a Proven Closer (along with 13 other members of the staff). Instead, I’m selecting someone more mainstream, whom Henriquez might face in the NLDS: Merrill.

The 21-year-old left-handed hitter may be best known to most fans as perhaps the only player plausibly standing between Paul Skenes and the NL Rookie of the Year Award, but it’s time for the season he had to gain greater national recognition. His double and two-run triple in Game 2 against the Braves, in addition to his clutch recovery to catch Jorge Soler’s leadoff laser in the ninth, gave glimpses of the glove, legs, and power that propelled him to an All-Star appearance and 5.3 FanGraphs WAR—1 WAR more than Skenes, who wasn’t promoted to the majors until May 11.

Even if Merrill isn’t the Rookie of the Year, he’s the rookie who’s here, which is more than Skenes can say thanks to the rest of the last-place Pirates. And with Chourio and Holliday heading home early, Merrill is the last Jackson standing in October batter’s boxes. Merrill, who bypassed both Triple-A en route to the bigs before converting from shortstop to center field this spring, is still unpolished and prone to chasing pitches outside the zone. It’s exciting/scary to consider how good he might be with improved plate discipline, more walks, extra pop, and more reps in center (where Statcast says he’s strong already).

Levy-Rubinett: He’s not exactly an unknown entity, but I want Emmanuel Clase to find a wider audience. The Guardians closer had 47 saves on the year, with an ERA of (pulls out magnifying glass) 0.61. Like another great closer before him, Clase relies heavily on his cutter—he throws it 78 percent of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and he throws it 99.5 miles per hour. It’s perhaps the most devastating pitch in all of baseball, anchoring the top bullpen. If Cleveland can make a run in these playoffs, it will become one of the most famous pitches in baseball, too.

Dabbundo: Padres rookie Jackson Merrill is one of the cofavorites, with Paul Skenes, for National League Rookie of the Year, but the wider baseball audience isn’t as aware of him as they are of Skenes. That will change this October. Merrill plays a crucial defensive position for the Padres in center, and he had a two-run triple to help the Padres sweep the Braves in the wild-card series. Merrill finished the regular season with 24 homers, 16 steals, and an .826 OPS. He’s helped deepen a San Diego lineup that has had real issues in each of the last two seasons.

4. What potential postseason matchup are you most excited for?

Wagner: Mets vs. Phillies. Let’s be honest here: This series will open up a portal. I don’t know where that portal will lead. The depths of Earth’s many vast oceans? The deep trenches of each fan base’s collective soul? Wherever that baby is at the end of 2001: A Space Odyssey? Hell?

Kram: I don’t need the word “potential” because my most anticipated matchup is already here. I’ve relished the Dodgers-Padres rivalry since the start of the decade, and although the Dodgers have consistently bested their southern rivals in the regular season, San Diego evened some scores with a 2022 NLDS upset. This divisional clash contains plenty of stars—now including Ohtani, in his first postseason—and absolutely no fear from the upstart Padres, who went 8-5 against the Dodgers in the regular season. Both teams’ stadiums will be rocking all NLDS long.

Dabbundo: Phillies vs. Mets. As a Phillies fan, I’m a bit biased, but these two franchises have real disdain for each other. The Mets are still haunted by the 2007 collapse, when they blew a seven-game division lead to Philly with 17 games to play. Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is a Phillie only because the Mets weren’t interested in signing him to a long-term deal in free agency in 2019. The Mets potentially saved their season with a late comeback in Atlanta in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader and then definitely saved their season with Pete Alonso’s three-run home run on Thursday night in Milwaukee. The Mets are the plucky underdog wild-card team, a position that had been occupied by the Phillies in each of the past two playoffs. After a captivating Knicks-Sixers playoff series in the NBA, we can only hope this series also gives us some more Northeastern city drama. I wonder whether a Phillies player will pay tribute to Rhys Hoskins’s infamous 2019 slow trot around the bases should they hit a home run in this series.

Levy-Rubinett: Please give me a Dodgers-Yankees World Series. Los Angeles vs. New York. Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge. The top National League squad vs. the top AL one. These two titans haven’t faced off in a Fall Classic since 1981, and story lines would abound. I loved last year’s dueling wild-card World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, but there’s nothing like the two biggest franchises in the sport meeting with everything on the line.

Lindbergh: Phillies vs. Mets. I didn’t think any matchup could top the intrigue of the Padres-Dodgers 2022 NLDS do-over—until the Mets stunned the Brewers to force their first postseason confrontation with the Phillies. The Tigers may be bringing the pitching chaos to October, but every other kind of chaos energy envelops the Mets, who seem to be surrounded by colorful characters that bestow blessings on the team: Grimace, Hawk Tuah Girl, Pitbull. The Phillies’ lovable himbos are better than ever, but the Mets have discovered the pleasures of sucking together. Maybe the Phillies should try not taking leads into the top of the ninth, which hasn’t worked out well for the Mets’ last two opponents. One way or another, this storied rivalry will level up—and threaten to tear apart The Ringer’s Mets-and-Phillies-fan-filled staff.

5. Who will win the World Series?

Lindbergh: Heck if I know. But since you’re making me pick, let’s say Padres over Yankees, in a reversal of fortunes from the Fall Classic of 1998. Back in March, I predicted that for the second straight season, there would be a first-time World Series winner, which hasn’t happened in back-to-back years since the Diamondbacks and Angels joined the club in 2001 and 2002, respectively. The Mariners just missed the cut for October, and the Brewers couldn’t close out the Mets, so the Padres are the last championship virgins still standing. Maybe this is the year they put The Pitch behind them as they claim victory in a battle between Juan Soto’s past and present employers. (Or a clash of (Michael) Kings.) Is it too much to ask for an unretired John Sterling to mistakenly launch into one last “Higashioka, the home run stroka” call? As for the games, I’ll go with Padres in six: You can make me predict a winner, but you can’t make me predict a sweep.

Kram: Phillies over Tigers in five games. Why the Phillies? Because they have the most complete team in the league, with a roster built to win in October. Why the Tigers? Because in a year of parity, why not a team that had a .500 record as late as September?

Levy-Rubinett: Yankees over Phillies in six games. I believe Judge and Soto will prove too potent for any of New York’s potential AL opponents. And the Phillies boast the most complete team in the National League, with a proven playoff rotation and a history of showing up in October. As for the end result? Judge just put the finishing touches on one of the best offensive seasons in baseball history. This is the year he’ll drag the Yankees back to the top.

Wagner: Padres over Yankees in five games. The Soto bowl! Two gigantic things happened in San Diego before this season started: The Padres traded one of the best players in baseball, and their longtime owner Peter Seidler died. A turbulent offseason gave way to a middling start of the year. They were 15-18 on May 1. The vibes, as they have been for years, were less than ideal. Turns out one Jackson Merrill, one Michael King, and a bullpen that feels like an army is enough to overcome years of tenuous vibes.

If the Padres do win it, it’ll validate years of gutsy and ambitious team building from general manager AJ Preller, made possible by the fact that Seidler was one of the only “small”-market owners in the sport who was willing to admit that baseball wasn’t bankrupting him and was, actually, profitable enough to support aggressive spending to build a great team. To do it against the Yankees after shipping one of baseball’s best players to them in the offseason? Well, that’s just narrative gravy.

Dabbundo: Padres over Yankees in six games.

The Astros have dominated the American League for seven years now, to the point where their absence from these playoffs has created a real power vacuum. The Yankees have the potential to flounder because Kansas City’s starting pitching and bullpen are underrated, but it’s hard to see any of the AL Central lineups keeping up with New York in a longer series. While I do think the Yankees will make the World Series, the National League is the better league this year. I’d take Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, and maybe even the Mets over the Yankees in a potential World Series. The Padres offense is finding its form at the right time, though, and the bullpen is as good as any in the sport. In the spirit of late, great owner Peter Seidler, San Diego will claim its first World Series and A.J. Preller’s aggressive moves will finally pay off.