It’s a rare moment in global financial markets when everything hinges on a single earnings report. Nvidia has had similar streaks in recent quarters, but this one comes at a particularly quiet time for broader markets and has extra significance.

Here are some numbers to watch today, but I would caution that the market is expecting NVDA to beat “consensus” and guidance on just about every metric. That’s the game with a high-flying stock like Nvidia.

1) Nine percent

That’s the implied move up or down in Nvidia stock in the options market. That implies a move of $300 billion in either direction, which is the market cap of McDonald’s or Pepsico. It’s a reminder of how big Nvidia has become.

2) 0.64

That’s the consensus on earnings per share. Annualized, that works out to a price/earnings ratio of 49x, which isn’t a bad valuation for a company this popular.

3) $28.48 billion (guideline was $28 billion plus-or-minus 2%)

That’s the consensus revenue forecast. This is where the valuation gets a little trickier. The company is operating on incredible margins, but that’s a $114 billion annual run rate. That means the company is trading at 26x revenue at a time when we don’t know how much competition is coming and how sustainable the investment in mega-cap technology is going to be. Margins of 75% are tough to sustain, especially when you’re not the one making the chips.

4) Full guidance

This is what NVDA said about the guidelines in the previous quarterly report:

Prospect

NVIDIA’s outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 is as follows:

• Revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
• GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. Full year gross margins are expected in the mid-70s.
• GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $4.0 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively. Full-year operating expenses are expected to grow in the low 40% range.
• Other GAAP and non-GAAP income and expenses are expected to be approximately $300 million, excluding gains and losses from unaffiliated investments.
• The GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be 17%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any separate items.

4) $31.69 billion

That’s the consensus for revenue in the next quarterly report. I want to stress that it’s probably not enough to match that, it’ll have to be substantially beaten to generate further momentum in NVDA stock. Gross margin for the next quarter is expected at 75.5%.

5) €126