With the San Diego Padres breathing down the necks of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, it will be imperative for the visitors to do business in this series against the Miami Marlins.

Bobby Miller is on the mound for LAD tonight in the season opener and my predictions for the Dodgers vs. Marlins game show him playing a role in the Over.

Let’s see why, with my MLB predictions for Tuesday, September 17.

Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction

My best chance
More than 9.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Bobby Miller is still a young pitcher that a lot of people have confidence in. And while I am one of those people, I have to admit that his performance this season has become increasingly difficult to fathom with each start he makes.

The Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed pitcher developed the ability to throw ground balls last year, but it took a while for his strikeout skills to show up at this level. And when the strikeouts started to pile up, he was a full-fledged player.
He has regressed this season, as his strikeout rate has dropped to 20.5%, and with his declining ground ball rate and huge jump in exit velocity, we’ve seen this young man pitch to a .464 xwOBA on contact. Making matters worse is his walk rate of 11.9%, which is a disastrous number.

Miller only seemed to get worse after returning from the minors, allowing 10 home runs in five starts with 10 walks in his last three outings. He hit eight punches against the Angels a few weeks ago, but given the matchup, it’s no surprise — it didn’t help matters, either, as he allowed seven earned runs.

The Miami Marlins were surprisingly solid at the plate a week ago, but have regressed again in the past week and are dead last in wRC+ over the past seven days. That said, they have limited strikeouts and have only sought some help from one opponent.

Miller should provide that help, and this Dodgers bullpen has also gotten a bit worse over the past calendar month with a 3.71 FIP. The runs should come fast and furious if the Marlins bring in Darren McCaughan, who hasn’t missed a bat and allowed five or more hits in each of his three starts this month, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 2-3 innings.

Shohei Ohtani Pick: A Winning Combination

My best chance
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits, runs and RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)

My analysis
This is a tough game to clinch the Shohei Ohtani title, as the score suggests the Japanese hitter will score a lot of LA runs and likely come to bat five times.

I’m not as eager to back him to go for three total bases, and with an inexperienced arm on the mound that occasionally struggles to walk, it’s possible the patient Ohtani will reach base on a free pass more than once. You also won’t find much value in backing him to score a run, which brings me to this combo market.

Ohtani has now scored a run in his last two games with a pair of RBIs in each to boot. With six multi-hit games in his last 13 games, this appears to be the market to target.

Dodgers vs Marlins parlay in the same game (SGP)

More than 9.5

Shohei Ohtani 3+ hits, runs and RBIs

Jonah Bride 2+ hits, runs and RBIs

While the Marlins are currently ice-cold at bat, the same cannot be said of their 28-year-old veteran infielder.

Jonah Bride is hitting .318 in the final week of play, stepping to bat 25 times, a team-high 25 times, at the top of the order — and he’s hitting .318 in that span. He’s had two hits in each of his last two games, giving him 11 in the last nine, and he’s scored six times and driven in five runs in that span.

Miller is going to have a tough time here, and a contact maestro like Bride is exactly the man to target. We also don’t have to worry about him dropping any hits, given his incredibly low walk rate — and I think that makes him an excellent third leg of the parlay.

Learn how to bet on a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Marlins Odds

Dodgers vs Marlins live odds

Dodgers vs Marlins opening odds

• Moneyline:Los Angeles -200 | Miami +165
• Running line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-125) | Miami +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: More than 9.5 (-105) | Less than 9.5 (-115)

Dodgers vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Dodgers opened as -184 favorites and have steadily climbed throughout the day, even topping -200 on the moneyline by Tuesday afternoon.
• A whopping 93% of bets and 89% of money are on the Dodgers to win at DraftKings.
• The total remains at the opening line of 9.5 runs with a slight but steady movement towards the Over.
• The Over accounted for 75% of total revenue, but only 58% of tickets.

Dodgers vs Marlins trend

The Dodgers have made the Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.90 Units / 23% ROI). Discover more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.

Dodgers vs Marlins game information

Dodgers vs Marlins Latest Injuries

Dodgers vs Marlins weather

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