Last week, the college football season shifted into a new gear. We got an epic matchup of top-five teams in Alabama-Georgia, a game that exceeded all expectations. We got three other ranked-versus-ranked matchups, we had a Hail Mary fall just short in Miami as part of another wild Friday night, and we got statement wins from teams like UNLV. It was a lot.

This week … doesn’t seem like as much. There’s only one ranked-versus-ranked game, and it’s No. 9 vs. No. 25. “College GameDay” is in Berkeley, California, home of the only team that has lost to Florida State. (This is awesome, by the way. But it’s definitely weird.) Weeks like this look like momentum killers on paper. Of course, these are the weeks that end up having about 75 chaotic and amazing endings and upset bids — like Week 2, which looked like a down week and was instead my favorite week of the season thus far. Plus, we always have questions, and we’re always on the hunt for more answers.

Instead of focusing on the biggest games and top four or five storylines of the week, as these Friday previews normally do, I’m instead asking 10 medium-sized questions that we should get answered while waiting to see which frantic finishes we’ll be following. Here’s everything you need to know — and ask! — for Week 6. (All times are Eastern.)

Jump to a section:
Mizzou-Texas A&M | Clemson-FSU | Miami-Cal
Auburn-UGA | Iowa-Ohio State | Michigan-Washington
Ole Miss-South Carolina | Syracuse-UNLV | SMU-Louisville
Navy-Air Force | Chaos superfecta | Week 6 playlist

Is Missouri ready to play like a contender?

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (noon, ABC)

Top-10 teams are supposed to beat Boston College and Vanderbilt by more than nine combined points. Despite a solid overall defensive showing, Missouri hasn’t really lived up to its preseason hype, but then again Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers also haven’t had to yet. But they have to now. Texas A&M has its flaws, but the Aggies are better than both BC and Vandy, and it’s time for an underachieving offense to find fourth or fifth gear.

Mizzou and A&M have been similar teams. Neither loses ground much on offense, and neither has turned the ball over much. But Mizzou has gained 20-plus on just 4.8% of snaps (114th), A&M 5.7% (96th). A&M has bounced between two different quarterbacks, with Conner Weigman struggling and then getting hurt and the more run-oriented Marcel Reed starting the past two games (both wins). Mizzou, meanwhile, has one quarterback who hasn’t quite rediscovered last year’s magic.

Last season, Brady Cook attempted about 3.3 deep shots (25 or more yards downfield) per game and completed 42% of them. Through four games this year he’s 1-for-7.

Cook and the Tigers have still been efficient nearer to the line of scrimmage, he still has both of last year’s primary deep threats in star Luther Burden III and sophomore Marquis Johnson. They combined to catch 15 of 26 deep shots for 638 yards and six TDs last year; this year they’ve caught one of six.

It feels like just a couple of explosions could turn what is a closely projected game. A&M’s Mike Elko has been canny in discussing his QB situation — Weigman is evidently healthy enough to start, though switching from the more explosive Reed would be a risk — and this one feels awful even on paper.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.2 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.7

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So is Clemson’s offense awesome now?

No. 15 Clemson at Florida State (7 p.m., ESPN)

A couple of months ago, Clemson-FSU seemed like one of the games of the season, a matchup of preseason top-15 teams that would determine the ACC favorite. FSU’s disastrous 1-3 start has taken the shine off, but Clemson has made this one interesting for a different reason. After averaging a 50.3 offensive SP+ ranking over the past three seasons and starting the season with a disastrous performance against Georgia, the Tigers’ offense has been brilliant since. They averaged 55 points and 8.2 yards per play against App State, NC State and Stanford, and while that’s not exactly a murderers’ row of defenses, it’s still better than they performed against last year’s worst defensive opponents.

Clemson has rebounded primarily by finally reintroducing risk. The Tigers’ success rate has only slightly improved this season, but they’re averaging 14.8 yards per successful play; they were at a dismal 11.0 in 2023.

They’ve gone from the low end of the explosiveness axis to the high end. Blue-chip freshman receivers Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore are playing a role in that — they’re averaging 26.4 yards per catch on 13 receptions — and with the field more properly stretched, running back Phil Mafah is thriving. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2023 (3.1 after contact) and is up to 8.0 in 2024 (5.0 after contact) despite one-third of his season carries coming against UGA.

Florida State should at least offer a status check of sorts. The Seminoles have been mediocre against the run, but they rush the passer well and could cause quarterback Cade Klubnik some problems. Of course, coach Mike Norvell is in a no-win situation with the offense. For weeks, he kept struggling quarterback DJ Uiagalelei in the lineup despite calls to bench him for backup Brock Glenn; now Uiagalelei is out with a broken finger, and we get to find out if Norvell either (A) stuck with Uiagalelei for far too long (if Glenn plays well) or (B) genuinely didn’t develop a better option than the No. 110 passer in Total QBR. Either answer is damning. Then again, the entire season has been as well.

Current line: Clemson -14.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 7.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 12.6

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Can Miami handle the Calgorithm?

No. 8 Miami at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

After four Miami wins by an average of 42 points, quarterback Cam Ward became a Heisman Trophy favorite and the Hurricanes skyrocketed up the polls. But after sacks, turnovers, defensive breakdowns, a late deficit and a nearly completed Hail Mary, the Hurricanes barely got past Virginia Tech last Friday. Now they take a cross-country trip to play a feisty Cal team, with a spectacularly online fan base, in a game that will end at about 2 a.m. ET.

Cal has the best pass defense Ward has seen this season: The Golden Bears are 11th in passing success rate allowed, eighth in pressure rate and most interestingly, first in interception rate. Nohl Williams is tied for the national lead with four picks. The run defense has been merely solid, but Miami wants to throw.

The Bears do still have to score, however. That’s been difficult. They’re 73rd in success rate and 107th in points per drive. The run game is fun — Jaivian Thomas is averaging 7.0 yards per carry and star Jaydn Ott should be healthier than he has been all year — but the passing game is mostly a bunch of nibbles and mistakes. Fernando Mendoza averages just 10.8 yards per completion, and he takes a ridiculous number of sacks considering the short passes. The Golden Bears are 129th in sack rate allowed … and Miami is 11th in sack rate despite star tackle Rueben Bain Jr. having played just three snaps because of injury. He should be ready to go Saturday night. Cal’s poor offensive line versus Miami’s awesome defensive front is a fatal matchup, but the Golden Bears could still make things weird.

Current line: Miami -10 (down from -13 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 8.5

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Is ‘Big Game Hugh Freeze’ still a thing?

Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)

From 2013 to 2020, Hugh Freeze teams went 6-7 against AP top-10 opponents. At Ole Miss, he famously beat Alabama twice, among others. Even at Liberty he knocked off No. 9 Coastal Carolina in 2020, and in his first year at Auburn in 2023, his Tigers played their best games against big dogs, losing to Georgia and Alabama by only a combined 10 points.

Including that Bama defeat, however, they’ve now lost six of their past eight games. This year they’ve gotten extremely creative, turning the ball over five times each in losses to Cal and Arkansas; they turned the ball over only once against Oklahoma, but it was a game-turning late pick-six. Edge rusher Jalen McLeod has been awesome, and a new receiving corps featuring transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith and freshmen Malcolm Simmons and Cam Coleman is making big plays. But the miscues have been nuclear.

Now comes Georgia. The Bulldogs haven’t played to their standards this season — they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.3 points per game — and basically played both their best and worst in last Saturday night’s loss to Alabama. Quarterback Carson Beck eventually found a brilliant rhythm against the Tide, and if Second-Half Georgia shows up on Saturday, the Dawgs will probably roll. But they haven’t shown that peak form nearly enough. Can the sight of a big-name opponent help Auburn curb the catastrophes and play a complete game? Or is this destined to be a get-right for Georgia?

Current line: UGA -24 | SP+ projection: UGA by 13.5 | FPI projection: UGA by 21.1

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Can Phil Parker frustrate Will Howard & Co.?

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Almost seven years ago, in the most memorable Iowa-Ohio State game in recent memory, the Hawkeyes forced four Buckeyes turnovers (!) and gained 487 yards (!!) in a 55-24 romp in Iowa City. It was both exhilarating and shocking. It was also Iowa’s only win in the series since 2004.

I’m going out on a limb: Iowa isn’t gaining 487 yards on Saturday in Columbus, Ohio. But the Hawkeyes could still force a few turnovers. Phil Parker’s defense is as Iowa as ever, ranking seventh in points allowed per drive. It creates disruption without blitzing up front and gets hands on passes in the back. The offense has improved, too — primarily because Kaleb Johnson is incredible (171.3 rushing yards per game, 8.4 per carry) — but it still can’t pass, and it’s still awful on passing downs. Ohio State’s defense isn’t going to give it much, but this will still be an interesting test for the Buckeyes’ attack.

Everything’s working as planned for Chip Kelly’s offense: Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are averaging 166.5 rushing yards per game, and the trio of Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate is averaging 236.3 receiving yards. Smith has already scored six TDs. But quarterback Will Howard threw double-digit interceptions twice at Kansas State. He can force the ball at times, and Iowa devours forced passes. Can Parker and his diabolical zone defenses force mistakes and make this a tighter game than expected?

Current line: Buckeyes -20 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 17.2 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 19.6

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Does Michigan’s run-and-defend style travel?

No. 10 Michigan at Washington (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Like Auburn, Jedd Fisch’s first Washington team has been brilliant at getting in its own way. The Huskies are 13th in offensive success rate and 16th on defense. They’ve gained 20-plus yards 9% of the time (28th) to opponents’ 5% (37th), too. All good things! But they’ve constantly come up short in the red zone, and special teams have been a disaster. That has contributed to a couple of devastating, tight losses to Washington State and Rutgers.

UW’s great pass defense will go mostly untested Saturday. Sherrone Moore switched to quarterback Alex Orji two games ago, and he was instrumental in a pair of 27-24 wins … despite going a combined 17-for-30 passing for 118 yards. Including sacks as pass attempts, the Wolverines actually average more yards per carry than per dropback. In 2024.

Tackle Mason Graham keys another great Michigan run defense, and while the pass defense hasn’t been perfect, it’s good and getting healthier. Michigan scored a big win over USC and survived against Minnesota last week, but those games were at home. With road games against Washington, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio State coming up and probably only one more mulligan to use and remain in the playoff race, the Wolverines have to hope this style travels to earn a shot at a fourth straight CFP.

Current line: Washington -2.5 | SP+ projection: Washington by 0.7 | FPI projection: Washington by 2.9

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Was last week about Ole Miss or Kentucky?

No. 12 Ole Miss at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Last week was the first decent “Is Ole Miss for real?” test, at home against Kentucky. It’s hard to say the Rebels passed. Granted, they averaged 6.3 yards per play to the Wildcats’ 4.5, had a better success rate (45% to 37%) and had fewer negative plays and a higher percentage of gains of 20-plus yards. They were superior in most categories, but they went 1-for-10 on third downs, Kentucky recovered both of the game’s fumbles, and the Wildcats went 3-for-3 on fourth downs, including a late 63-yard pass on fourth-and-7. Ole Miss’ Caden Davis badly missed a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer, and Kentucky prevailed 20-17.

Now the Rebels have to face the team that torched Kentucky in Week 2. Led by ace transfer Kyle Kennard and five-star freshman Dylan Stewart, South Carolina has a genuinely nasty pass rush, ranking fourth in pressure rate and seventh in sack rate. But the Gamecocks aren’t really good at anything else. They’re inefficient on offense and mediocre against the run. Being incredible at one thing was good enough to beat the team that beat Ole Miss, but the Rebels are the better overall team, and they can still craft a playoff run if they respond well to defeat. Will they?

Current line: Ole Miss -9 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 11.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 10.3

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Can UNLV stay at the front of the G5 pack?

Syracuse at No. 25 UNLV (Friday, 9 p.m., FS1)

Just as we all predicted, UNLV has become one of college football’s main characters this season. There are plenty of off-the-field reasons for that, but at the moment Barry Odom’s Rebels are also at or near the top of the pile when it comes to the race for the Group of 5’s automatic CFP bid. In Hajj-Malik Williams’ first start replacing Matthew Sluka at QB, they trounced Fresno State by 45 points. Having already beaten Houston and Kansas, they’re now also looking for a third win over a power conference team.

Syracuse is an odd duck. The Orange’s defense is mostly mediocre, but they prevent big plays and dominate in the red zone. On offense, they offset a dismal running game by ranking 18th in passing success rate and eighth in third-down conversion rate. Quarterback Kyle McCord has been asked to carry a heavy load, but he’s in the nation’s top 10 in both passing yards and touchdowns. UNLV’s pass defense is probably the best McCord has faced this season, however: The Rebels are 11th in passing success rate allowed and ninth in third-down conversion rate allowed. They’re favored for a reason, but Syracuse is dangerous enough to wreck UNLV’s plans.

Current line: UNLV -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 1.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.5

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Who’s the No. 3 favorite in the ACC?

SMU at No. 22 Louisville (noon, ESPN)

Right now, the ACC hierarchy is pretty well set: Per SP+, Miami has a 31.3% chance of winning the conference title, while Clemson (20.1%) and Louisville (19.7%) are almost tied, SMU (10.5%) is next, and unbeatens Pitt (4.5%) and Duke (4.3%) have a fighting chance. Miami and Clemson have their own tests this week but assuming they’re the top two contenders makes sense. The No. 3 spot (or, in Louisville’s case, perhaps No. 2a) will be decided in Louisville early Saturday.

This game pits a great SMU run game — running back Brashard Smith has produced 337 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in the past two games — against an equally awesome Louisville run defense. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, meanwhile, has been up and down as a passer, and Louisville has given up a few too many chunk plays through the air.

SMU’s defense is aggressive, for better or worse: The Mustangs are 12th in success rate allowed and eighth in three-and-outs, but opponents have completed nine passes of 30-plus yards. The Tyler Shough-to-Ja’Corey Brooks combination has come up big for Louisville, and star transfer Caullin Lacy finally made his debut against Notre Dame and caught five passes. The importance of this game is high, and the entertainment value should be even higher.

Current line: Louisville -7 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 5.7 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.6

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Can Navy end Air Force’s recent domination?

Navy at Air Force (noon, CBS)

The battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has been one of attrition in recent years. There have been 12 games between Army, Navy and Air Force in the past four seasons, and only two topped 30 total points in regulation. These three teams spend large portions of each year focusing on these specific games, and no one is as familiar with the intricacies of their opponents’ option offenses. Meanwhile, Air Force has won four straight over Navy, three by double digits.

I’m curious if either of those trends holds in 2024. For one thing, Navy has been much, much better than Air Force this season. The unbeaten Midshipmen have risen from 113th to 68th in SP+. They’ve scored at least 38 points in every game and have positioned themselves as AAC co-favorites. Air Force, meanwhile, is just 1-3 and has scored 29 points in three games against FBS competition. The Falcons were projected to fall to 88th this season because they had the nation’s lowest returning production, but that was optimistic: They’re currently 113th.

Granted, Air Force’s defensive front is still decent, which, combined with the Falcons’ own offensive ineptitude, could keep the overall point total down. But it has been a while since Navy appeared to have this large an advantage in this matchup.

Current line: Navy -10 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: Navy by 14.0 | FPI projection: Navy by 8.2

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Week 6 chaos superfecta

Well, we finally swung and missed. Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. After four straight successful weeks, the Big Ten’s heavyweights were uncooperative in providing us with an upset, so we’re now 4-for-5 for the season.

What do you do when you fail? You aim higher! This week, we’re taking down an unbeaten. Ohio State (86% win probability versus Iowa), Tennessee (85% versus Arkansas), Indiana (75% versus Northwestern) and Miami (73% versus California) are a combined 18-0, but SP+ says there’s only a 40% chance that they finish Saturday 22-0. Who do you think falls?

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Week 6 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. There is a lot going on Saturday evening.

Friday evening

Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon (9 p.m., Fox). The past two Friday nights have been wonderfully chaotic. Granted, UNLV-Syracuse or perhaps TCU-Houston (not listed here) could get awfully weird, but it would take something unexpected for the biggest name on the docket, Oregon, to end up in trouble. The Ducks are trending in the right direction, and while the MSU defense is a little spicy, the offense has been one long series of implosions.

Current line: Oregon -23.5 (down from -24.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 27.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 22.7

Early Saturday

UCLA at No. 7 Penn State (noon, Fox). UCLA has been an abject disaster this season. Against admittedly one of the harder schedules in the country to date, the Bruins currently rank 120th in points per drive and 128th in points allowed per drive. Now quarterback Ethan Garbers is questionable with injury and sophomore Justyn Martin might get his first start. Good luck.

Current line: PSU -27.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 31.8 | FPI projection: PSU by 27.3

Pitt at North Carolina (noon, ESPN2). With Desmond Reid averaging 7.3 yards per carry and quarterback Eli Holstein throwing aggressively downfield, Pitt has one of the more surprisingly exciting offenses in the country and is 4-0 for the first time since 2000. North Carolina is reeling, having allowed 70 points to JMU and a three-touchdown comeback to Duke. On paper, the Tar Heels could offer plenty of resistance here, but are they up for it?

Current line: Pitt -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 0.3 | FPI projection: Pitt by 4.6

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Indiana at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). Northwestern was projected 75th in SP+ this season and currently sits 2-2 and 79th; Indiana was projected 81st … and is now 5-0 and 29th. If 2024 form means anything, Indiana rolls. But this is the biggest game in the history of Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium on Lake Michigan. Expect the unexpected.

Current line: Indiana -14 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 10.8 | FPI projection: Indiana by 15.8

No. 1 Alabama at Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SECN). Last we saw Vanderbilt, the Commodores were nearly knocking off Missouri on the road. They have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least three touchdowns on three occasions and underachieved by such a margin once. They are unpredictable … but this series usually isn’t: Bama has won the past three games by a combined 148-3. A Bama hangover and Vandy upset bid would set an incredible tone for a wild October. I’m not counting on it.

Current line: Bama -22.5 (down from -24.5) | SP+ projection: Bama by 23.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 22.3

Virginia Tech at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Brent Pry’s Hokies nearly got their season back on track with an upset of Miami last week, but instead suffered a crushing disappointment and fell to 2-3. Now they travel three time zones west. This all screams “LETDOWN!” especially considering how unique Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels can be to defend. Either Tech’s rebound begins Saturday, or the entire season falls into a tailspin.

Current line: Hokies -7.5 (up from -6) | SP+ projection: Hokies by 9.1 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.5

Rutgers at Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1). Rutgers was lucky to survive last Friday’s battle with Washington unbeaten, and neither the sportsbooks nor the computers say they will move to 5-0 on Saturday. But the Scarlet Knights are playing a team that is somehow, against all odds and logic, 8-31 in one-score finishes since 2018. Keep it close, feed star running back Kyle Monangai, and see what happens.

Current line: Nebraska -7 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 6.5 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 6.1

Saturday evening

No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas (7:30 p.m., ABC). Arkansas could upset someone big this year. The volatile Razorbacks are a danger to both themselves and their opponents at all times, and Tennessee is their first of five opponents ranked 12th or better in SP+. Can they damage a Volunteers defense that has been nearly perfect in 2024? Can they force mistakes out of quarterback Nico Iamaleava?

Current line: Vols -13 | SP+ projection: Vols by 14.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 14.0

No. 11 USC at Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN). USC makes its second multi-time zone trip of the season, this time for a battle of 1930s powerhouses. Minnesota’s pass defense has been nearly perfect, but Miller Moss and the Trojans represent a major step up in passing competition. Still, USC made enough mistakes against Wisconsin to trail 40 minutes in, and Minnesota nearly upset Michigan. This one isn’t a gimme.

Current line: USC -8 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 4.8 | FPI projection: USC by 8.4

UCF at Florida (7:45 p.m., SECN). I unfortunately already used the “danger to themselves and their opponents” line on Arkansas above. I should have saved it for this game between two of the faster and more implosion-prone teams in college football. Tell me this game goes to 12 overtimes, and I’ll believe it. Tell me either team wins 66-0, and I’ll believe it.

Current line: UCF -2.5 (flipped from Florida -1) | SP+ projection: Florida by 5.1 | FPI projection: Florida by 0.5

Duke at Georgia Tech (8 p.m., ACCN). Unbeaten Duke, winner of three tight games, ranks 88th in points per drive on offense and 13th on defense. Georgia Tech, 2-2 since the Week 0 win over Florida State in Ireland, is 14th on offense and 66th on defense. When Tech has the ball, it’s Haynes King (13th in Total QBR) against a wonderfully disruptive Duke defense. When the Blue Devils have the ball, go ahead and change the channel.

Current line: Tech -9 (up from -8) | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.7

Utah State at No. 21 Boise State (7 p.m., FS2). Boise State’s defense played its best game of the year in last week’s surprisingly easy defeat of Washington State, but you’re watching this game for one reason: Ashton Jeanty. Projected over 14 games, Jeanty is on pace for 2,958 rushing yards and 46 touchdowns! He’s averaging 10.3 yards per carry and a score every 6.3 rushes! Absolute nonsense!

Current line: BSU -27 (up from -26) | SP+ projection: BSU by 26.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 30.1

Baylor at No. 16 Iowa State (7:30 p.m., Fox). Dave Aranda’s Baylor Bears are always fighting their hearts out and always one step away from total disaster. They blew a late lead against Colorado and nearly overcame a huge deficit before falling to BYU. With any offensive consistency whatsoever, they would be a threat to anyone in the Big 12. Their defense is solid enough to contain ISU, but can they score enough to make this game interesting?

Current line: ISU -12 (down from -13) | SP+ projection: ISU by 11.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 10.9

Kansas at Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). These teams have played eight combined games against FBS opposition, and six have been decided by one score. Kansas has outscored its opponents by 21 points this season while going 1-4. KU’s run game remains appointment viewing — Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. are averaging 155 yards at 6.3 per carry — and if Jalon Daniels stops throwing the ball to the other team, the Jayhawks can beat anyone. But ASU defends the run awfully well.

Current line: ASU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 1.3 | FPI projection: ASU by 2.7

James Madison at Louisiana-Monroe (7 p.m., ESPNU). No, you probably won’t need to keep close tabs on this one during such a loaded Saturday evening slate, especially if JMU plays like it has the past two weeks. But ULM is a sprightly 3-1 and plays a very annoying bend-don’t-break defense. If the Dukes make some early mistakes, Bryant Vincent’s Warhawks could keep this one annoyingly close.

Current line: JMU -17 | SP+ projection: JMU by 22.5 | FPI projection: JMU by 14.6

Late Saturday

Texas Tech at Arizona (11 p.m., Fox). Noah Fifita and the Arizona offense either move the ball in big chunks or not at all, while Texas Tech has scored at least 44 in three games and allowed at least 37 in three. If this game isn’t a late-night fireworks show, I’m going to be supremely disappointed.

Current line: Arizona -6 (up from -5) | SP+ projection: Arizona by 6.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.1

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

NAIA: No. 1 Keiser at No. 6 St. Thomas (11 a.m., local streaming). In case you were wondering about Keiser University’s general ambition levels — and I know you were! — the Seahawks, the defending NAIA national champs, have already beaten two Division II teams this season. St. Thomas, meanwhile, beat a pair of ranked NAIA teams by a combined 89-24. Expect some haymakers from two explosive offenses. SP+ projection: Keiser by 5.7.

D3: No. 20 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse (2 p.m., local streaming). At some point in the Smaller-school Showcase, we always end up in Wisconsin. The WIAC currently has five teams in the D3 top 20, and while Platteville is the lowest ranked of the five, SP+ loves the Pioneers and their high-flying passing game. They’re sixth in SP+ and favored against the higher-ranked Eagles. SP+ projection: Platteville by 2.5.

FCS: No. 6 North Dakota at No. 2 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). From Wisconsin, we go to an even more familiar smaller-school locale: North Dakota. And this one might be a track meet! NDSU and UND are first and third, respectively, in offensive SP+, and while the host Bison are favored, the Fighting Hawks have the best win, having taken down Montana in Week 2. Both teams have loaded running back stables and aren’t afraid to use them. SP+ projection: NDSU by 13.3.