Summary and key points you need to know: There are growing concerns about the survivability of US aircraft carriers in a potential conflict with China, given advances in submarine and missile technology.

-While aircraft carriers have played a central role in US naval strategy for decades, they are increasingly vulnerable, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

-Some experts propose shifting the focus to a strategy that emphasizes a larger submarine fleet and smaller, more maneuverable surface vessels.

-This approach could deliver cost savings, greater flexibility and a reduced risk of catastrophic losses, but it would come at the expense of the airline’s unparalleled ability to project air power worldwide.

Are US aircraft carriers still viable in a war with China? Experts weigh in

Some experts worry about the ability of U.S. aircraft carriers to survive a war against China. Yet not only have enormous resources been invested in the world’s best carrier fleet, but U.S. global strategy depends on deploying forces, at all times, on that carrier fleet.

Is the US reliance on aircraft carriers inconsistent with the needs of a conflict with China? And if so, what should the Americans do about it?

Concerns about the survival chances of the aircraft carrier

The aircraft carrier has been the primary vessel of the world’s most powerful navy for about eighty years. A floating city capable of projecting air power around the world, the carrier offers a unique capability that exponentially increases the footprint of the navy deploying it. But technology is catching up. Submarines are becoming more advanced, better able to slip through the defenses of support vessels deployed to guard the carrier.

For example, during a war exercise with American and French troops, Rubis class submarine slid past Carrier Strike Group 12, delivering an (apparent) fatal blow to the USS Theodore Rooseveltproving that the mighty aircraft carrier is indeed fallible. Likewise, surface ships are becoming more agile, more nimble, complicating defense scenarios. China enjoys a distinct advantage over the U.S. in intermediate missiles. And hypersonic missiles are emerging—a threat so new and deadly that the Americans are still struggling to develop a countermeasure.

The point is that the aircraft carrier is more vulnerable than ever before. Are aircraft carriers completely obsolete? In most conflicts, no. The US can probably deploy its supercarriers anywhere in the world without much fear of consequence. Well, that could change: Yemen’s Houthi rebels deployed anti-ship missiles in late 2023, raising concerns among the exponentially better-funded US Navy.

And that’s the Middle East, with low-budget actors. The Indo-Pacific might be a different story, with more sophisticated actors; in the Indo-Pacific, the US might have cause for acute concern. And that’s not to say that an aircraft carrier couldn’t survive a conflict with China. Many experts would argue that the carrier is still well-equipped to survive. But the margin for error seems to be shrinking, leading some to wonder whether alternative naval plans are overdue.

Alternatives to the aircraft carrier

Aircraft carriers are extremely large and extremely expensive. America’s newest carrier, the Gerald R. Fordcost $13.3 billion—and will cost millions upon millions annually to maintain and man. And at more than 1,000 feet long, U.S. supercarriers pose an imposing target, measuring about one-fifth of a mile long. That’s a big target. A big, slow target that, if damaged or destroyed, would mean billions of dollars in losses.

What does an alternative plan look like? National interest Staff writer Brandon Weichert has advocated for “a refocusing of U.S. strategy to improve and expand the U.S. submarine fleet” with an addition of “smaller, more maneuverable, and harder-to-destruct surface warships.”

The refocus on submarines and surface ships would spread U.S. firepower across multiple ships. The advantage of this would be reduced costs, increased offensive flexibility, and harder-to-kill targets. The disadvantage would be the loss of the ability to deploy an air base full of fighters and bombers from any coastline in the world.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 articles on issues relating to world affairs. Harrison has been a lawyer, a pilot, a guitarist, and a minor professional hockey player. He joined the U.S. Air Force as a pilot trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

All images are Creative Commons.