• QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — over 22.5 completions: The former No. 1 overall pick played at home against the Eagles this past week, en route to his best performance of the season so far. Mayfield generated a PFF grade of 85.1, the third-best mark of Week 4 and second-best in his time with the Buccaneers.

• 2024 File: 11-10 (52.4%) — 0.86 units won.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

A battle atop the NFC South kicks off Week 5’s Thursday night action, with the division-leading Buccaneers heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.

The Kirk cousins Era in Atlanta’s year hasn’t been without bumps, but a big, last-second division win over the Saints last week has brought this team to life. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo – the second-highest rated kicker in the NFL – has become the equalizer for this team, with his excellent accuracy keeping these games closer than they might otherwise be.

Even still, that’s not a huge asset for gamblers. The Falcons have just a 1-3 record against the spread this season, with all three losses coming in Atlanta – two of which they were modest favorites.

Despite having talented weapons, especially running back Bijan RobinsonAtlanta has not been efficient offensively, ranking in the bottom five of the league in several metrics, including late-down conversion rate (31.9%), touchdown drive percentage (13.2%) and offensive points scored (30) .

In part, these issues fall under the quarterback position, true Kirk cousins has only produced a PFF grade of 64.7 (19th out of 33 qualifying graduates). He has produced just a few big throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays, which ranks second in the NFL. This offense will need him to make progress against Tampa this week, as the Bucs maintain the NFL’s second-highest team coverage grade (81.4) through the first month of the season.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has shown the ability to put together solid performances on both sides of the ball, evidenced by the team’s rebound win this past week, beating the Eagles by multiple scores as underdogs at home.

Just like their quarterback, Baker Mayfieldthe Buccaneers enjoy underdog status and currently have a 2-0 record against the spread when given points, including an outright win on the road in Detroit in Week 2.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 22.5 completions (-109) — 4.8% PFF Greenline Edge

The former No. 1 overall pick played at home against the Eagles this past week, en route to his best performance of the season so far. Mayfield generated a PFF grade of 85.1, the third-best mark of Week 4 and second-best in his time with the Buccaneers.

Consistency was an issue for Mayfield to start the year, marred by situations where he held the ball too long. That was far from the case last week, as he played with time and rhythm from the pocket to get the ball out quickly. Mayfield recorded the fastest average in the league last week (2.17 seconds), after ranking among the top 14 longest times through Week 3.

Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen puts Mayfield in measured, high-percentage looks early to soften coverage, then uncorks shot plays to attack fouls. That has allowed Mayfield to surpass this betting line in three of four games this season.

Atlanta likes to lean on its smart veteran safeties to keep offenses guessing, often starting with open looks that are pre-snapped and rotating to close down the middle of the field. Their disguised coverage rate of 40.8% ranks third in the NFL. If Coen and Mayfield can anticipate this and get the ball out quickly, it could go a long way in this game.