Spread: Leaders (-5)
Money line: Chiefs (-240), Saints (+200)
Top/Bottom: 43.5

Distribution over the first half: Chiefs -3.5 (even), Saints +3.5 (-130)
Moneyline first half: Chiefs (-190), Saints (+150)
Total number of chefs: O/U 23.5 (-125/-105)
Total number of saints: O/U 18.5 (-125/-105)

The props

Pass

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: O/U: 224.5 yards (-140/+110)
Derek Carr total passing yards: O/U: 199.5 yards (-145, +115)
Mahomes’ total passing TDs: O/U: 1.5 TDs (-115/-115)

Rush

Alvin Kamara total rushing yards: O/U 69.5 (+110/-140)
Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: O/U 44.5 (-105/-125)
Mahomes total rushing yards: O/U 19.5 (+105/-135)

Received

Travis Kelce total receiving yards: Order no. 59.5 (-115/-125)
Rashid Shaheed total receiving yards: O/U 49.5 (-105/-125)
Chris Olave total receiving yards: Order no. 59.5 (-115/-125)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: O/U 44.5 (Even/-130)
Kamara total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-105/-125)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: O/U 24.5 (-120/-110)
Noah Gray total receiving yards: O/U 29.5 (-130/even)
Juwan Johnson total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (+110/-140)
Samaje Perine total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-130/even)
JuJu Smith-Schuster total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-135/+105)
Foster Moreau total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-145/-130)
Total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (Even/-130)

Seth Walder’s picks for the game

Demario Davis under 8.5 tackles + assists (-110)

There are two reasons why the tackling model is well below par on Davis, projecting just 6.8 combined tackles for the linebacker on Monday night: The first is the issue of playing time. Davis has dropped from almost every speedy player to 86% of the time this year. Plus, he’s returning from a hamstring injury that sidelined him in Week 4. The Saints could give the veteran a few plays here and there and even if that results in one less tackle as expected, it will make a big difference. Davis also doesn’t generate tackles to a large extent. He has made tackles on 11% of plays over the last two years, below the 14% average we would expect for an inside linebacker.

Will Harris over 3.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Harris is all over the field, usually playing safety, but also lines up in the slot at times and even occasionally as an outside corner or inside linebacker. While it hasn’t necessarily translated into huge tackle numbers this year (he has 14 tackles in four games and has exceeded that mark twice), being closer to the line of scrimmage at times certainly increases his tackling options. Just like the most important factor: he doesn’t leave the field. He has played 100% of the snaps this season. My model predicts him for just over 4.5 tackles + assists and I think it underestimates him as it still takes into account last year when he barely played.

Jaylen Watson less than 4.5 tackles + assists (-115)

Watson has generated tackles on 10% of his defensive snaps this season, the 11th highest rate for an outside corner with at least 80 snaps played. But this is a more difficult match for him to collect them. The Saints have the ball at the highest rate in the league (55%) – still true if we exclude situations where there is a good chance they will win or lose, I should note – and every time they do, Watson has a smaller chance to register a tackle and it keeps the clock moving. Additionally, Watson didn’t record high tackle percentages in 2023, so there’s also a chance his 2024 numbers are at least partially noise. My model predicts him for 3.9 tackles + assists, so this isn’t a crazy difference from the market, but it’s certainly a strong slope.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last eleven primetime games. Derek Carr is 0-5 ATS in his last five primetime games (0-3 ATS with Saints)

• Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS in prime-time games at home.

• The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. They are 16-6 ATS in that role since 2018 and 29-13 ATS since 2014.

• Since 2021, the Unders are 11-1 when the Saints are on extra rest (8-1 under Dennis Allen).

• Derek Carr is 34-23 ATS in his career when scoring at least four points (1-1 ATS with Saints).

• Underdogs by at least five points are 18-4 ATS (11-11 outright) this season.

• Prime-time unders are 78-49-1 over the past three seasons (8-7 this season)